Betting
12/29/23
4 min read
2023 NFL Week 17 Betting Preview: Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings
Packers (7-8) at Vikings (7-8)
Spread: Vikings -1
Total: 43.5
Weather: Dome game
The Line Report
The spread for this game opened as Vikings -1.5, then moved mid-week to Vikings -1. The total has fallen from 46 points to 43.5.
Vikings Offense vs. Packers Defense
The Minnesota Vikings have started four quarterbacks this season, going back to rookie Jaren Hall this week. Hall has completed eight of 10 passes this season for 101 yards. The Green Bay Packers’ defense is talented, but they’ve become an underachieving unit over the past few weeks. For instance, Green Bay gave up 30 points to the Panthers last week, who are averaging 15.7 points per game.
Justin Jefferson has only played in eight games this year, but he still has 823 receiving yards. Over Jefferson’s last two games, he has 20 targets and 225 receiving yards. Jordan Addison has crossed 100 receiving yards in two games this season, catching two touchdowns in both outings. It’s worth noting that Addison benefited from a big freak play in both outputs. Over his last five games, Addison has a 100-yard outing while being held below 50 in the other four contests.
K.J. Osborn has gone over 90 receiving yards in two games this season, but he’s been held below 50 yards in his 12 other games. The Packers are allowing the 19th-most receiving yards to wide receivers this season.
T.J. Hockenson is out for the rest of the year, which makes Josh Oliver Minnesota’s starting tight end. Oliver has 165 receiving yards this season, with no more than four targets in a single game this season. The Packers are allowing the 12th-most receiving yards to tight ends.
Last week against the Lions, Ty Chandler had eight carries to Alexander Mattison’s two. Neither Vikings runner had a target. While Mattison was sidelined the previous week, Chandler was the first Vikings runner to breach 100 rushing yards in a game this season. The Packers are giving up the sixth-most rushing yards and the 22nd-most receiving yards to running backs.
Packers Offense vs. Vikings Defense
Green Bay is scoring 22.2 points per game this season, which is 11th-best on the year. The Vikings have given up 19.9 points per game, which is 10th-best in the league.
The Packers' two most talented receivers, Christian Watson and rookie Jayden Reed, are in danger of missing this contest. Romeo Doubs becomes the Packers’ standalone top option in their passing game if they do. Doubs leads Green Bay in receptions (56), receiving yards (646), receiving touchdowns (8) and target share (17.9 percent).
Rookie Dontayvion Wicks would also see role expansion if Watson and/or Reed miss this contest. Wicks had a quiet first half of the season, but he’s reached 90 receiving yards in two of the last five games. The Vikings have given up the ninth-most receiving yards to wide receivers.
Tucker Kraft has played very well in Luke Musgrave’s absence. In the last three games, Kraft has had at least four receptions and 57 receiving yards. The Vikings have given up the tenth-fewest receiving yards to tight ends.
Aaron Jones has only played nine games this season, but he’s been back for two weeks. Last week, he ran 21 times for 127 yards against the Panthers. A.J. Dillon had seven carries for 12 yards in that same contest. Expect both backs to see action in Minnesota, with Jones seeing a bigger role. Minnesota is giving up the ninth-fewest rushing yards and the ninth-most receiving yards to running backs.
What You’re Betting On
When these teams met in Week 8, Minnesota won 24-10. Kirk Cousins was the Vikings quarterback in that matchup.
If you’re betting on Minnesota, you’re betting on a fifth-round rookie who’s thrown only 10 NFL passes. That’s the clear negative with a Vikings bet, especially with Hockenson now sidelined. On the bright side, the Packers’ defense has given up 67 points over the past two weeks, including 30 to the Panthers last week. Hall is at least catching Green Bay’s talented defense while they struggle. Ultimately, if you’re betting on Minnesota, you build that bet around Brian Flores’ overachieving defense.
If you’re betting on Green Bay, that starts as a bet against Hall. The Packers’ defense has been a liability over the past two weeks, but they could get back on track against a rookie quarterback like Hall. Offensively, Jordan Love hasn’t quite been consistent, but he’s had a couple of hot streaks throughout the season. Jones is back, which is a positive for Green Bay, but ultimately, if you’re betting on the Packers, you are betting on Love out dueling Hall. That’s a very realistic stance to take.
Score Prediction: Packers 21, Vikings 20
Ryan’s Recent Betting Record
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 48-32
ATS 2023: 43-37
Props 2022: 60-40
Props 2023: 26-28
