Betting
12/29/23
4 min read
2023 NFL Week 17 Betting Preview: Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys
Lions (11-4) at Cowboys (10-5)
Spread: Cowboys -5.5
Total: 52
Weather: Indoors
The Line Report
The spread for this contest has moved from Cowboys -6.5 to Cowboys -5.5. The total has moved down from 53.5 to 52 points.
Cowboys Offense vs. Lions Defense
The Dallas Cowboys are scoring 30.1 points per game, which is second-best in the league. The Detroit Lions allow 23.7 points per game, which is 24th in the league.
CeeDee Lamb now leads the league in receptions (109), he’s second in receiving yards (1,424), and he’s fourth in receiving touchdowns (9). His 28.6 percent target share is tenth-best in the league. Lamb has over 100 receiving yards in seven of his 15 games this season.
Brandin Cooks has 558 receiving yards on the season. He’s been held below 50 receiving yards in 12 of his 14 games. Cooks’ floor is extremely low, being held below 20 receiving yards five times this season. Michael Gallup has 418 receiving yards this year, though he’s been held to 20 receiving yards or less nine times this season. The Lions have allowed the eighth-most receiving yards to wide receivers.
Among tight ends Jake Ferguson is tenth in receptions (61), ninth in receiving yards (659) and tied for seventh in touchdowns (5). Ferguson’s 17 percent target share is second on the Cowboys. The Lions have allowed the 11th-most receiving yards against tight ends.
Tony Pollard is eighth in the league in rushing yards with 886 and he’s 17th (295) in receiving yards among running backs. Detroit is giving up the fewest rushing yards and the 15th-most receiving yards to running backs.
Lions Offense vs. Cowboys Defense
The Lions are scoring 27.5 points per game, which is fifth-best in the league. Dallas is allowing 19.1 points per game, which is fifth-best in the league.
Amon-Ra St. Brown is fourth in the league in receptions (106), fifth in receiving yards (1,281) and tied for seventh in receiving touchdowns (8). St. Brown’s 30.1 percent target share is eight-best in the league. St. Brown has over 100 receiving yards in eight of his 15 games this season.
Josh Reynolds has 551 receiving yards on the season, but he’s been held below 50 receiving yards in each of his last 10 games. Jameson Williams has reached 50 receiving yards in just two of his 11 games this year. The Cowboys have allowed the seventh-fewest receiving yards this season.
Among tight ends, Sam LaPorta is fifth in receptions (74), fifth in receiving yards (776) and the leader in receiving touchdowns (9). LaPorta’s 19.7 percent target share is ninth-best among tight ends and second-best on the Lions. Dallas has allowed the fourth-fewest receiving yards to tight ends.
David Montgomery is seventh in the league in rushing yards with 910, and he’s tied for four in rushing touchdowns with 11. Montgomery hasn’t reached 100 yards on the ground since Week 10. Montgomery has been a relative non-factor in the passing game with 117 receiving yards and ranks 49th among running backs.
Rooke Jahmyr Gibbs is 12th in the league in rushing with 872 yards. Gibbs is 14th among running backs in receiving yards (316), and his 15.3 percent target share is third-best on the team. The Cowboys have allowed the 17th-most rushing yards and the fifth-fewest receiving yards to running backs this season.
What You’re Betting On
If you are betting on Dallas, you are building that bet around Dak Prescott’s passing attack exploiting Detroit’s below-average pass defense. The Cowboys have lost two in a row, and their offense has underwhelmed in both matchups. That makes this a bounce-back spot for both Prescott and Dallas in general.
Your second expectation is that Micah Parsons’ pass rush makes Jared Goff uncomfortable on Saturday night. Goff is an above-average starting quarterback in the NFL, but he’s an entirely different player when he’s under consistent duress. The Lions’ have one of the league’s best offensive lines, so that will be a strength vs. strength trench matchup.
If you’re betting on the Lions, you have a few expectations. Offensively, you need one of two things to happen. The first is that Goff plays a strong game against the Cowboys’ high-end pass defense. Detroit can still cover in that scenario, even if Dallas has a big game on offense.
If that doesn’t happen, the Lions’ running game is well-positioned to be a problem for the Cowboys. When the Arizona Cardinals and Buffalo Bills beat Dallas, they did so behind productive, physical efforts in the run game. Detroit is very well coached with a premium offensive line and one of the league’s best running back duos.
Lastly, the Lions’ defense has struggled throughout the second half of the season. If that group doesn’t step up, Prescott could insert himself back into the MVP discussion this week.
Score Prediction: Cowboys 30, Lions 23
Ryan’s Recent Betting Record
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 48-32
ATS 2023: 43-37
Props 2022: 60-40
Props 2023: 26-28
