Betting
12/23/23
4 min read
2023 NFL Week 16 Player Prop Bets: Smash This Brock Purdy Passing Bet
Each week, more than half a dozen analysts from The 33rd Team will discuss prop betting strategy behind the scenes. This article will encompass all the player prop bets the team believes are strong plays for that week.
The fastest way to access all our weekly player prop bets is in our FREE Discord via the prop-bets channel.
Follow the team of prop bettors behind this weekly article on Twitter:
William S. (Dr. Profit)
Patrick H. (TackleBoxProps)
We’ll link the picks articles here from Racz (Underdog), too. Also, look for betting picks videos from Tanner Kern and an article from Samantha Previte that may have another betting pick.
TOP WEEK 16 PLAYER PROPS
Brock Purdy UNDER 31.5 Pass Attempts
Best Odds: -125 on DraftKings
For context, this prop is listed at 29.5 attempts on FanDuel. Brock Purdy is 13-1 to the UNDER this year. Quarterbacks average the third-most pass attempts per game (37) against Baltimore, and QBs are 11-3 on the OVER against them this year.
However, that’s because of game script, with the Ravens blowing many opponents out. In this game, the 49ers are 5.5-point favorites, so they have no reason to pass more than usual. Purdy runs the most efficient passing offense in the NFL, with 9.9 yards per pass attempt. It’s tough to see any defense stopping Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle and the elite play-calling from Kyle Shanahan.
Bet by: Larky
Darren Waller OVER 3.5 Receptions
Best Odds: -114 FanDuel
As a Giants fan, I’ve said all week that Christmas will be a tough day for me since the Eagles pass rush could put up wild numbers in this matchup. Thankfully, the Giants have a good coaching staff. They’ll try to mitigate that edge with some quick hitters and likely some manufactured completions while moving the pocket.
The Eagles have been vulnerable at linebacker and safety, and I expect Darren Waller to see a bump in playing time from last week after he ran just half as many routes (22) as Darius Slayton (44). You can also get this number at a value right now on FanDuel, while the juice is around -130 elsewhere.
Bet by: Reynolds
Chuba Hubbard OVER 16.5 Rush Attempts
Best Odds: -115 on ESPN Bet
It’s already up to -130 juice on DraftKings and the same odds but up to 17.5 attempts on FanDuel. Chuba Hubbard has at least 22 carries in all three games without fired head coach Frank Reich. The Packers allow 105 rush yards per game to RBs (fourth-most) and the sixth-most rush attempts per game overall to RBs. The Panthers have been under 200 passing yards in seven straight games, with just two passing touchdowns in that span. I expect them to lean on Hubbard and the decently effective run game again.
Bet by: Larky
Josh Allen OVER 244.5 Passing Yards
Best Odds: -115 at BetMGM
Josh Allen is 8-6 against this number this season, and the Chargers are giving up the third-most passing yards per game. Allen only had 94 passing yards last week, but I think that was opponent-related. I believe Buffalo airs it out indoors on Saturday. The two big concerns here are a Bills defensive score and that Buffalo just blows the doors off the Chargers.
Bet by: Reynolds
Calvin Ridley OVER 54.5 Receiving Yards
Best Odds: -114 on FanDuel
In Week 13, Calvin Ridley had eight targets and 156 air yards. In Week 14, he totaled 13 targets and 166 air yards. In Week 15, he reached 12 targets and had 164 air yards. Yet, he was under this number in all three of those games.
Overall, Ridley is 5-9 to the OVER this year, which is concerning. However, not only is this a positive regression play based on usage, but team factors need to be considered here. Christian Kirk is on IR, and Zay Jones has a hamstring injury. It’s mainly Ridley and Evan Engram now competing for targets. Trevor Lawrence practiced today, and the team is optimistic he will clear concussion protocol now. Turning to the matchup, the Buccaneers allow 194 receiving yards per game to WRs (second-most).
Bet by: Larky
Adam Thielen UNDER 47.5 Receiving Yards
Best Odds -115 on DraftKings
Adam Thielen started the year hot, but he’s gone under this number in five of his last seven outings. He went under this number twice last year against Green Bay as a Viking. The Packers are familiar with Thielen, and it’s a bounce-back spot for this Green Bay defense after last week's debacle against Tampa Bay. Ultimately, this is also a bet against the Panthers' passing attack, which has been held under 200 yards in seven straight games.
Bet by: Reynolds
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