NFL Analysis

12/21/23

9 min read

2023 NFL Week 16: Biggest Matchups, Mismatches

By Sports Info Solutions

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Each week, Sports Info Solutions (SIS) will generate a matchup comparison for the week’s NFL games based on its proprietary Total Points stat.

Total Points takes nearly everything that happens on the field and scales it in a way that allows you to compare players, units and teams. It will allow you to pinpoint mismatches, perhaps those you weren’t even aware existed.

To learn more about Total Points, read our piece from last season.

Here’s our look at Week 16.

Total Points Per Play ranks are based on 2023 performance to date. Fourth-down decision Ranks are based on the head coach’s history of matching our model regarding what to do on fourth down over the last two seasons. See a brief description of the ranking methodology in this piece.

Week 16 Matchups

Saints vs. Rams

Fourth-down decisions: Saints 20th, Rams 13th

Neither of these teams are offensive dynamos. Total Points gives the offensive edge to the Los Angeles Rams, who are slightly above the league median in rushing and receiving as opposed to the New Orleans Saints, who are bottom 10 in both categories. 

The Rams could mitigate the Saints’ league-best pass coverage by concentrating on the run game, where the Rams’ 12th-ranked rushing offense matches up well against the Saints’ 21st-ranked run defense. 

Meanwhile, the Saints are more likely to focus on the passing game and take advantage of the Rams’ mediocre pass coverage and bottom-10 pass rush.

Bengals vs. Steelers

Fourth-down decisions: Bengals 12th, Steelers 28th

After benching Mitch Trubisky last week, the Pittsburgh Steelers hope Mason Rudolph can inject life into an offense that ranks in the bottom 10 in passing and take advantage of the Cincinnati Bengals’ bottom-10 run defense and pass rush. 

On the other side of the ball, the Bengals offense should have some success against a Steelers defense that is good in all three defensive categories but not elite in any. 

Bills vs. Chargers

Fourth-down decisions: Bills 3rd, Chargers unranked

Total Points favors the Buffalo Bills over the Los Angeles Chargers in every category except receiving. 

The Chargers could use some positivity after last week, but unfortunately for them, this game is likely to be pretty one-sided.

Colts vs. Falcons

Fourth-down decisions: Colts 31st, Falcons 18th

The Indianapolis Colts’ elite pass rush should have a big edge against a team that ranks 27th in blocking and 28th in passing. 

The Atlanta Falcons’ top-five ranked run defense and pass coverage are well situated to cause problems for a Colts offense that is below the league median in every category. 

Packers vs. Panthers

Fourth-down decisions: Packers 2nd, Panthers 11th

The Green Bay Packers have advantages over the Carolina Panthers in passing, receiving, blocking and pass rush. 

The Panthers simply do not have the offensive tools to take advantage of the Packers’ poor pass coverage. The Packers should be favored to win this game.

Browns vs. Texans

Fourth-down decisions: Browns 10th, Texans 9th

The Cleveland Browns are statistically more successful this season in the run game than in the passing game. However, their rushing unit will have a tough matchup against the Houston Texans’ third-ranked run defense. 

Even though they rank second-to-last in the league in passing and last in receiving, the Browns could choose to attack the Texans’ 29th-ranked pass coverage. 

On the other side of the ball, the Browns’ league-best run defense and pass rush will surely cause issues for the Texans. It matches up particularly well against the Texans’ bottom-10 offensive line.

Lions vs. Vikings

Fourth-down decisions: Lions 7th, Vikings 16th

This is another statistically lopsided matchup as the Detroit Lions outrank the Minnesota Vikings in every category except run defense. 

The Vikings seem especially vulnerable to having their 27th-ranked pass coverage exploited by the Lions’ eighth-ranked passing offense. The Lions will clinch a playoff spot if they win or tie. Total Points expects this to be a fairly straightforward victory for the Lions.

Commanders vs. Jets

Fourth-down decisions: Commanders 19th, Jets 22nd

What happens when the worst offense in the league faces off against the worst defense in the league? We’ll soon find out, but since it’s literally anyone’s guess whether the New York Jets go scoreless or the Washington Commanders give up 40, perhaps it’s better if we turn our analysis to the other side of the ball. 

The Commanders’ offense ranks third in rushing, by far the highest-ranked offensive category for either of these teams, and they also have an advantage over the Jets in the passing game. 

However, the Jets’ defense matches up well to make things difficult for the Commanders. These teams have different statistical profiles, but this could be a pretty even matchup.

Seahawks vs. Titans

Fourth-down decisions: Seahawks 15th, Titans 6th

Each of these teams have notable shortcomings in their defense that the other team is prime to take advantage of. The Seattle Seahawks have a bottom-five run defense, which matches up poorly against the Tennessee Titans’ league-best rushing offense. 

Meanwhile, the Titans have the worst pass coverage in the league, a problem further exacerbated by needing to contain the Seahawks’ second-ranked receiving offense. 

With so many exploitable holes in the defense, don’t be surprised if this game is a  shootout.

Jaguars vs. Buccaneers

Fourth-down decisions: Jaguars 24th, Buccaneers 27th

This is a great matchup for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who have an edge over the Jacksonville Jaguars in all four offensive categories. On defense, while the Jaguars technically have a slightly better pass rush, this is partially nullified by the Buccaneers’ offensive line. 

Total Points definitely favors the Buccaneers. They rank eighth overall in Total Points Per Play. The Jaguars rank 26th (yes, a division co-leader ranks 26th).

Cardinals vs. Bears

Fourth-down decisions: Cardinals 4th, Bears 14th

The Arizona Cardinals are bad in three of the four offensive categories. While they rank second in rushing, this is directly countered by the Chicago Bears’ second-ranked run defense. 

The Bears are the much more competent offensive team, and the Cardinals are also bad on defense, so the Bears have a good chance of taking control of this game.

Cowboys vs. Dolphins

Fourth-down decisions: Cowboys 5th, Dolphins 17th

These are two of the most well-rounded teams in the league. They are neck-and-neck when it comes to passing and pass coverage. But the Miami Dolphins have sizable advantages over the Dallas Cowboys when it comes to rushing, receiving, blocking and pass rush. 

The Cowboys do have the Dolphins beat in run defense, but the Dolphins have the much better rushing offense. Neither of these teams is bad in anything. Total Points gives the edge to the Dolphins.

Patriots vs. Broncos

Fourth-down decisions: Patriots 23rd, Broncos 21st

The Denver Broncos are the much stronger offensive team, so the New England Patriots must use their top-five run defense to limit the Broncos’ 11th-ranked rushing offense, the only offensive category where the Broncos are above the league median. 

While the Patriots’ offense is terrible overall and ranks bottom-10 in passing, rushing and receiving, it has had slightly more success in the rushing game than the passing game. So the Broncos’ league-worst run defense at least gives a clear pathway for the Patriots to score and stay competitive in this game.

Raiders vs. Chiefs

Fourth-down decisions: Raiders 30th, Chiefs 26th

The Kansas City Chiefs have a clear advantage against the Las Vegas Raiders in every category except blocking. Barring another 63-point performance by the Raiders, which should be harder to do against a Chiefs defense that is competent, the Chiefs should cruise to victory.

Giants vs. Eagles

Fourth-down decisions: Giants 25th, Eagles 1st

This is yet another game Total Points thinks will be one-sided. The New York Giants rank in the bottom 10 in every category and lack the consistent tools to either outscore or get enough defensive stops against the Philadelphia Eagles.

Ravens vs. 49ers

Fourth-down decisions: Ravens 29th, 49ers 8th

The San Francisco 49ers might have the best offense in the league, but the Baltimore Ravens have the tools to keep pace with them theoretically. 

The Ravens’ defense is ranked in the top five in pass rush and pass coverage and will surely look to limit the number of explosive plays by the 49ers. The 49ers defense is also ranked in the top 10 in pass coverage. 

If the Ravens hope to pull off the upset, one pathway might be to turn this into a run-heavy game. The Ravens have a slight edge over the 49ers in rushing and run defense.

This article was written by Matthew Lim.

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Sports Info Solutions

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