Betting
12/15/23
4 min read
2023 NFL Week 15 Betting Preview: Philadelphia Eagles at Seattle Seahawks
Eagles (10-3) at Seahawks (6-7)
Spread: Seahawks +3
Total: 48.5
Weather: No current concerns
The Line Report
The spread for this contest has come down from Seattle Seahawks +4 to Seahawks +3. The total has moved from 48 to 48.5 points.
Seahawks Offense vs. Eagles Defense
This is a matchup between two very talented, but underachieving units.
People saw Geno Smith’s offense hang 35 points on the Dallas Cowboys on Thursday Night Football in Week 13, but since Seattle’s Week 5 bye, the team has reached 20 points in just four of its nine games. The Philadelphia Eagles have given up 109 points over their last three games — and the fifth-most per game this season.
This season, the Eagles allow the second-most receiving yards per game to wide receivers. DK Metcalf leads the team in receiving yards (864), receiving touchdowns (7) and target share (23.7 percent). Tyler Lockett leads the team in receptions (65) while being second in the categories where Metcalf leads. Rookie Jaxon Smith-Njigba has exceeded 50 receiving yards in just four of his 13 games this season.
Noah Fant has 333 receiving yards, Will Dissly has 111 and Colby Parkinson has 175. Those three Seahawks tight ends have combined for 619 receiving yards this season, and Philadelphia is allowing the 11th-most receiving yards to tight ends.
Kenneth Walker III returned from injury last week and saw eight carries and five targets. In that same matchup, Zach Charbonnet had nine carries and one target. Walker has been Seattle's primary runner when healthy, while Charbonnet has been a supplement. Expect Walker to lead Charbonnet in opportunities Monday night. The Eagles allow the sixth-fewest rushing yards and the 13th-most receiving yards per game to running backs.
Eagles Offense vs. Seahawks Defense
Jalen Hurts has 31 total touchdowns this season, but he’s 12th in passing yards per game, and the Eagles are scoring the sixth-most points per game this season. And Seattle is giving up the sixth-most points per game this season.
A.J. Brown is fifth in the league in receptions (90), second in receiving yards (1,258) and second in target share (32.3 percent). DeVonta Smith is second on the team in receptions (69), receiving yards (907) and target share (24.3 percent). The Seahawks are giving up the 10th-most receiving yards per game to wide receivers.
Dallas Goedert returned to action last week and caught all four targets for 30 receiving yards. He has at least four targets in all but one of his 10 games this year.
D’Andre Swift is fourth in the league in rushing with 822 yards despite having only one carry for three yards on opening day. Swift is a dynamic player in the passing game, but he’s only 23rd in receiving yards per game among running backs. The Seahawks allow the 11th-most rushing yards and the ninth-most receiving yards per game to running backs.
What You’re Betting On
If you’re betting on Seattle, you are betting on a free-falling team with an underachieving offense. You need Smith not only to play but to exploit Philadelphia’s beatable secondary. That means a bet on Seattle is on the Seahawks’ offensive line mitigating the Eagles’ pass rush.
The unit was able to do it against Dallas a few weeks ago, so it has the ability to do it in this matchup, as well. If you’re betting on Seattle, you expect its defense to keep the Eagles around their team total. That ultimately means that a bet on the Seahawks is a bet on Smith stepping up to stop Seattle’s four-game losing streak.
If you’re betting on the Eagles, you’re betting on two core concepts. The first is that Jalen Hurts’ offense steps up after back-to-back blowout losses. The Eagles are a championship-caliber team, which makes this a classic correction spot against Philadelphia.
The second thing you need here is for the Eagles’ pass defense not to look like Dallas did against Seattle two weeks ago. We’ve gotten to the point where you can’t expect consistency from the Eagles' secondary, which means you are betting on Philadelphia's pass rush against a pressure-sensitive quarterback. If Drew Lock plays instead of Smith, that’s another positive for the Eagles.
Score Prediction: Eagles 28, Seahawks 24
Ryan’s Recent Betting Record
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 48-32
ATS 2023: 38-32
Props 2022: 60-40
Props 2023: 25-23
