Betting
12/7/23
4 min read
2023 NFL Week 14 Betting Preview: Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys
Eagles (10-2) at Cowboys (9-3)
Spread: Cowboys -3.5
Total: 52
Weather: No concerns
The Line Report
The spread for this contest opened as Cowboys -3 but moved to Cowboys -3.5 early in the week. The total has moved from 51.5 to 52 points.
Cowboys Offense vs. Eagles Defense
The Dallas Cowboys are leading the league in scoring with 32.3 points per game. Since losing to the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 9, the Cowboys have won four straight, averaging 42 points per game.
This surge has catapulted Dak Prescott to the top of MVP markets. The Eagles are allowing the fourth-most passing yards per game.
CeeDee Lamb is second in the league in receiving yards (1,182), third in receptions (90) and has a 28.5 percent target share. Lamb has more than 100 receiving yards in five of his past seven games. He had 191 receiving yards on 11 receptions against Philadelphia in Week 9.
Brandin Cooks only has 497 receiving yards on the season, but his two most productive games have come this month. Cooks caught one of his two targets for seven yards against the Eagles. Michael Gallup has been held to 20 receiving yards or less in four of his past six games. Philadelphia is allowing the second-most receiving yards per game to wide receivers.
Jake Ferguson is ninth among tight ends in receiving yards (498) and 10th in receptions (46). Ferguson had seven catches on 10 targets for 91 receiving yards and a touchdown against the Eagles. Philadelphia is giving up the 15th-most receiving yards per game to tight ends.
Tony Pollard is ninth in the league in rushing yards (737), and he’s 15th among running backs in receiving yards (248). The Eagles allow the fifth-fewest rushing yards but the 14th-most receiving yards to running backs.
Eagles Offense vs. Cowboys Defense
Jalen Hurts is 11th in the league in passing yards (2,995) and second among quarterbacks in rushing yards (430). His Eagles are scoring the fourth-most points per game (27.4).
He’s also among the three primary contenders in the MVP race. The Cowboys allow the fourth-fewest points per game this season.
A.J. Brown is fourth in the league in receiving yards (1,164) and ninth in receptions (81). Brown’s 31.2 percent target share is fourth-best in the league. After a red-hot start, Brown has only had 100 receiving yards in one of his past four games.
DeVonta Smith is 15th in the league in receiving yards (834) and 18th in receptions (64). Smith’s production and 23.5 percent target share show he’s the clear second option in Philadelphia’s passing attack. Dallas is allowing the fourth-fewest receiving yards per game to wide receivers.
Dallas Goedert is expected to return to action in Dallas after missing the past three games. Goedert's last game was against the Cowboys, when he caught three of four targets for 50 receiving yards.
Goedert has had two big games this year, but he’s been held below 50 receiving yards in six of his nine contests. The Cowboys have allowed the 21st-most receiving yards per game to tight ends.
D’Andre Swift is fourth in the league in rushing yards (783) and 19th among running backs in receiving yards (208). Swift hasn’t recorded more than 100 rushing yards since September, but he’s had more than 50 in eight of 12 games. Dallas is giving up the ninth-fewest rushing yards and receiving yards per game to running backs.
What You’re Betting On
When these teams played in Week 9, the Eagles won 28-23 in Philadelphia. Both teams have premium offensive and defensive lines. The quarterback for each team is among the favorites in the MVP race.
If you bet on Dallas, you are banking on the Cowboys continuing their hot streak. In particular, you are betting on Prescott torching the Eagles’ beatable secondary. Defensively, you’re looking for the Cowboys to keep the Eagles’ offense near expectations.
Anything beyond that is gravy. Dallas has won its past five home matchups against Philadelphia, giving the Cowboys another slight edge.
If you bet on the Eagles, you must be happy this line moved past the key number of three. That shift gives you a few more outs in what should be a tight game.
Otherwise, Hurts was efficient in the first meeting between these two teams. You’re betting on that again if you’re backing the Eagles. The big thing you need if you’re betting on Philadelphia is for its pass defense to step up.
Score Prediction: Cowboys 28, Eagles 24
Ryan’s Recent Betting Record
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 48-32
ATS 2023: 34-30
Props 2022: 60-40
Props 2023: 24-21
