Chiefs (8-3) at Packers (5-6)
Spread: Packers +6
Weather: No current concerns
The Line Report
The spread for this contest has moved from Packers +6.5 to Packers +6. The total has moved down from 42.5 to 42 points.
Packers Offense vs. Chiefs Defense
The Green Bay Packers are scoring the 17th-most points per game this season. They are 16th in passing yards and 21st in rushing yards per game. Green Bay is an average offense this season.
That said, Jordan Love is on a two-game hot streak, and Green Bay has scored 52 points against the Lions and Chargers. The Kansas City Chiefs are allowing the third-fewest points per game this season.
Christian Watson’s production has been inconsistent this season, but he had 94 receiving yards against the Lions last week. Rookie Jayden Reed has slightly better usage than Romeo Doubs in the previous several weeks.
None of Green Bay’s receivers have taken over as the top option, but Watson and Reed are trending up. The Chiefs are allowing the sixth-fewest receiving yards per game to wide receivers.
Aaron Jones missed last week’s game in Detroit, and he’s only played in seven games this season. Jones is a factor in the passing game, but he’s only run for more than 45 yards in one game. A.J. Dillon saw 14 carries and three targets in Jones’ absence last week.
Dillon’s production has been modest all season. Overall, Green Bay’s running game is below average. The Chiefs are giving up the 11th-most rushing yards and the second-fewest receiving yards per game to running backs.
Chiefs Offense vs. Packers Defense
Kansas City is scoring the 11th-most points per game this season, while Patrick Mahomes has the sixth-most passing yards per game. Green Bay is allowing the 10th-fewest points per game.
Travis Kelce is the main vein in Mahomes’ passing attack, leading the team in receptions (70), receiving yards (732) and receiving touchdowns (five). His 24.4 percent target share is also the team’s best by a considerable margin. The Packers are allowing the 12th-most receiving yards per game to tight ends.
The Chiefs’ wide receiver room has been the team’s weakness all season. Rookie Rashee Rice leads the group in receptions (44) and receiving yards (527) by a considerable margin. He’s also tied with Kelce for the team lead in receiving touchdowns. Rice is the lone bright spot in this group. Justin Watson has five or fewer targets in every game but one, where he had 11.
Skyy Moore has been held below 40 receiving yards in all but two games, both of which came in September. Marquez Valdes-Scantling has -1 receiving yard in his past two games. Kadarius Toney has the second-most receptions among Chiefs wide receivers on the seventh-fewest routes. The Packers are allowing the 21st-most receiving yards per game to wide receivers.
Green Bay is giving up the sixth-most rushing yards and the 19th-most receiving yards per game to running backs. Isiah Pacheco is 12th in the league in rushing yards and 19th among running backs in receiving yards.
This Is What You’re Betting On in Chiefs at Packers
If you’re betting on the Packers, you build that bet around three concepts. The first is that Green Bay has a talented defense playing to their potential this season. Kansas City still has an above-average offense, but it has not been the group we’ve grown accustomed to seeing.
The Packers can realistically keep the Chiefs’ offense near expectations. The second is Love is coming off his two best games of the season. The third is Green Bay’s recent success, which has thrust them back into the NFC Wild Card race. The Packers are motivated, bordering on desperate team with a home game in prime time.
Whenever you’re betting on the Chiefs, you build that bet around Andy Reid and Mahomes. Their offense is underperforming by their lofty standards, but Mahomes remains the league’s best player.
Kansas City’s defense continues to perform at a top-five level. Love has played well in the past two weeks against average, at best, defenses in the Lions and Chargers. Kansas City is a different animal.
Score Prediction: Chiefs 21, Packers 17
Ryan’s Recent Betting Record
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 48-32
ATS 2023: 32-27
Props 2022: 60-40
Props 2023: 22-20