Betting
11/17/23
4 min read
2023 NFL Week 11 Betting Preview: Philadelphia Eagles At kansas City Chiefs
Eagles (8-1) at Chiefs (7-2)
Spread: Chiefs -3
Total: 45.5
Weather: Chance for rain
The Line Report
The spread for this game has bounced around from Chiefs -2.5 to Chiefs -3. The total has moved from 48 to 45.5 points.
Chiefs Offense vs. Eagles Defense
Patrick Mahomes enters the weekend as the co-favorite in MVP betting markets. His Kansas City Chiefs, however, are scoring the 13th-most points per game this season.
Travis Kelce leads all tight ends in receiving yards and receptions per game. His 24.8 percent target share leads the team by a considerable margin. The Philadelphia Eagles have allowed the 14th-most receiving yards per game to tight ends.
Rookie Rashee Rice leads Chiefs’ receivers in receptions (32), receiving yards (378), receiving touchdowns (four) and target share (12.5 percent). Every other Chiefs’ receiver has a target share below 10 percent. Marquez Valdes-Scantling leads Chiefs’ receivers in routes run, but he’s been held under 30 receiving yards in six of nine games.
Justin Watson, Skyy Moore, Kadarius Toney and recently reacquired Mecole Hardman are all role players. That said, Toney and Hardman are both targeted on 32 percent of their routes. The Eagles are allowing the most receiving yards per game to wide receivers.
Isiah Pacheco is Kansas City’s primary ball carrier with double-digit carries in seven of nine games. Pacheco is 15th in the league in rushing yards. Pacheco has 28 targets on the season while Jerick McKinnon has 23. The Eagles are allowing the fewest rushing yards and the 13th-fewest receiving yards to running backs.
Eagles Offense vs. Chiefs Defense
Jalen Hurts enters the weekend as the other co-favorite in MVP betting markets. The Eagles are scoring the third-most points per game in the league. In last year’s Super Bowl against the Chiefs, Hurts threw for 304 yards and ran for 70.
A.J. Brown is in the Offensive Player of the Year conversation with 67 receptions (eighth), 1,005 receiving yards (second), six touchdowns (fifth) and a 32.2 percent target share (third). DeVonta Smith has 42 receptions for 533 receiving yards and four touchdowns on a 21.2 percent target share.
Brown has been the clear alpha in the Eagles passing attack this season. The Chiefs are allowing the eighth-fewest receiving yards per game to wide receivers. TE Dallas Goedert will likely miss this contest, which could lead to increased usage for Brown and Smith.
D’Andre Swift is seventh in the league in rushing yards (614) and has 35 targets on the season. The Chiefs are allowing the 15th-most rushing yards and the third-fewest receiving yards per game to running backs.
What You’re Betting On
The Chiefs beat the Eagles, 38-35, in February’s Super Bowl. Both teams are coming off their bye.
If you’re betting on the Chiefs, Andy Reid is 20-3 in the regular season coming off a bye. That’s specifically important in this matchup for two reasons. The first is Mahomes’ offense hasn’t reached its traditionally high level of play this season. The second is that Reid’s game plan against the Eagles last year is a big reason that Kansas City won the Super Bowl.
Last year you could run on Philadelphia, this year you can’t, which puts this game on Mahomes. You also get Kansas City’s defense, which is giving up the fewest points per game this season.
If you’re betting on the Eagles, it's on the more talented roster. In the Super Bowl Hurts accounted for nearly all of Philadelphia's offensive production. If you’re betting on Philadelphia, you expect a little more out of the Eagles’ running game.
Philadelphia’s secondary is its most vulnerable position group, but Kansas City’s wide receivers are its. If you’re betting on the Eagles, you need their pass defense to hold up against Mahomes. If you’re betting on Philadelphia, you can be confident that the Eagles will be extra motivated after last season’s Super Bowl loss.
Score Prediction: Eagles 26, Chiefs 24
Ryan’s Recent Betting Record
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 48-32
ATS 2023: 26-24
Props 2022: 60-40
Props 2023: 18-18
