Betting
11/16/23
4 min read
2023 NFL Week 11 Betting Preview: Minnesota Vikings at Denver Broncos
Vikings (6-4) at Broncos (4-5)
Spread: Broncos -2.5
Total: 42.5
Weather: Chance of rain
The Line Report
The spread has moved from Broncos -2 to Broncos -2.5. The total has fallen slightly from 43 to 42.5 points.
Broncos Offense vs. Vikings Defense
Russell Wilson has 18 touchdown passes to just four interceptions this season. He’s also thrown for less than 200 yards in his last five games.
Courtland Sutton leads Denver Broncos pass catchers in every significant receiving category. His seven touchdown receptions are tied for seventh in the league. Jerry Jeudy continues to underwhelm with 30 receptions for 371 receiving yards on the season.
Jeudy has 50 or fewer receiving yards in three of his last four games. Marvin Mims Jr. is a promising rookie, but he only has four receiving yards in his previous four games. The Minnesota Vikings have allowed the eighth-most receiving yards per game to wide receivers.
Broncos TE Adam Trautman has only 84 receiving yards this season. Greg Dulcich, who is out because of an injury, is the only real pass-catching tight end Denver has.
Javonte Williams has gotten bell cow-type usage the past three games. Williams hasn’t hit 100 rushing yards in a game but has 48 carries in the previous two weeks.
Explosive rookie Jaleel McLaughlin has seen from four and nine carries with at least two targets in his last six games. Samaje Perine also factors in some in a passing game-centric role. Minnesota is allowing the 10th-fewest rushing yards and the fifth-fewest receiving yards to running backs.
Vikings Offense vs. Broncos Defense
Josh Dobbs has saved the Vikings' season, as Minnesota has scored 58 points in his two starts. Dobbs has been an efficient passer, adding at least 44 rushing yards in those two starts.
T.J. Hockenson is the centerpiece of Dobbs’ attack, with 18 receptions on 27 targets for 203 receiving yards and a score. Those are remarkable numbers for a tight end in a two-game span. The Broncos are allowing the most receiving yards per game to tight ends this season.
Jordan Addison has seven targets in each game he’s played with Dobbs for nine receptions and 121 receiving yards. Brandon Powell has six receptions on eight targets for 50 receiving yards and a touchdown with Dobbs.
Justin Jefferson can return to action this Sunday, which would be an obvious boon to Dobbs’ passing attack. Denver is allowing the 20th-most receiving yards per game to wide receivers.
Alexander Mattison is in danger of missing this contest, which would thrust Ty Chandler into the lead-back role. Chandler had 15 carries last week in Mattison’s absence, with only 23 on the season.
Chandler is an explosive player facing a Broncos’ defense that has allowed the most rushing yards and the fifth-most receiving yards to running backs this season. Kick returner Kene Nwangwu will supplement Chandler, but Nwangwu only has 24 career carries.
What You’re Betting On in Vikings at Broncos
A bet on the Broncos is a bet on Denver's defense continuing to play at a high level. The Broncos have a unique home-field advantage, and they’ll host a dome team in the Vikings.
During the Broncos’ three-game winning streak, they’ve relied on their defense while leaning on their running game. Minnesota’s defense has been beatable in the air, which gives Wilson an opportunity for a spike game.
If you’re betting on Minnesota, it's on two core concepts. The first is that Brian Flores’ defense remains one of the league’s most improved units. Second, is that Dobbs continues to be remarkably reliable despite only joining the team two weeks ago.
Minnesota’s running game has the best matchup anyone could have this week. Chandler is explosive, but anything he brings should be considered a bonus. If Jefferson returns, that raises the ceiling of Minnesota’s offense.
Score Prediction: Broncos 20, Vikings 17
Ryan’s Recent Betting Record
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 48-32
ATS 2023: 26-24
Props 2022: 60-40
Props 2023: 18-18
