2023 NFL Week 10 Betting Preview for Every Game
Betting 11/11/23
I’ve watched every snap of every NFL game since 2014 because I bet on football in a variety of ways. ATS tournaments, as well as survivor and winner pools, are among my favorites. Those contests don’t usually lock until the weekend, so we should make our final decisions as late as possible.
In this article, I’ll discuss how I treat various situations in each format. I’ll also provide updates on line movement and notes on every game every week. I’ll even sprinkle in the occasional daily fantasy stance.
Be sure to keep up to date on injuries with Ari Meirov’s Injury Report Tracker.
Colts vs. Patriots (London)
Spread: Patriots +2
Total: 43
The spread for this contest has moved from New England Patriots +1.5 to Patriots +2. The total has moved down slightly from 43.5 to 43 points.
Winner Pools: Expect the Indianapolis Colts to be used in roughly 75 percent of entries. This week, one of my strong stances is that I will be Patriots heavy in this matchup. If I had one winner pool entry, I would take New England as a leverage play.
Survivor Pools: This contest should be avoided in survivor.
Score Prediction: Patriots 23, Colts 20
49ers at Jaguars
Spread: Jaguars +3
Total: 44.5
The spread for this contest has stayed at Jacksonville Jaguars +3 all week. The total has decreased from 46.5 to 44.5 points late in the week.
Winner Pools: Expect the San Francisco 49ers to be used in roughly two-thirds of entries. I won’t be too far off consensus in this matchup. I would, however, play the 49ers if I were in just one winner pool.
Survivor Pools: This contest should be avoided in survivor.
Score Prediction: 49ers 27, Jaguars 20
Texans at Bengals
Spread: Bengals -6
Total: 47
The spread for this contest has moved from Cincinnati Bengals -6.5 to Bengals -6. The total has moved down from 48 to 47 points.
Winner Pools: Expect the Bengals to be used in roughly 90 percent of winner pools. Tee Higgins is out, and Ja’Marr Chase will likely play through a back injury. Cincinnati’s offense not being at full strength makes the Houston Texans an interesting leverage play. My ratio for this contest will be 75 percent Bengals and 25 percent Texans.
Survivor Pools: The Bengals are a reasonable option this week, but I’ll save them with my own entries.
Score Prediction: Bengals 28, Texans 20
Browns at Ravens
Spread: Ravens -6.5
Total: 38
The spread for this contest has moved from Baltimore Ravens -6 to Ravens -6.5. The total has moved up slightly from 37.5 to 38 points.
Winner Pools: Expect the Ravens to be used in over 90 percent of entries. The Browns will be without both of their starting offensive tackles. That’s why I’ll be near consensus on this matchup. Otherwise, I’d have only been slightly Ravens heavy.
Survivor Pools: The Ravens are a reasonable option this week, but I will avoid playing them against an elite defense like Cleveland’s.
Score Prediction: Ravens 17, Browns 13
Packers at Steelers
Spread: Steelers -3
Total: 38.5
The spread for this contest has stayed at Pittsburgh Steelers -3. The total has moved down slightly from 39 to 38.5 points.
Winner Pools: Expect the Steelers to be used in roughly 85 percent of entries. If I had one winner pool entry, I would take the Steelers. Since I play volume in this format, my ratio will be around 65 percent Steelers and 35 percent Green Bay Packers.
Survivor Pools: These are two comparable rosters, so I will avoid this matchup in survivor.
Score Prediction: Steelers 20, Packers 13
Saints at Vikings
Spread: Vikings +3
Total: 41
The spread for this contest has moved from Minnesota Vikings +2.5 to Vikings +3. The total has stayed at 41 points all week.
Winner Pools: Expect both teams to be used in roughly 50 percent of entries. I like this as a leverage spot where you can take a three-point road favorite as a coin flip type of option. I will be very New Orleans Saints heavy in winner pools this week.
Survivor Pools: I will avoid this contest in survivor.
Score Prediction: Saints 20, Vikings 17
Titans at Buccaneers
Spread: Buccaneers -1
Total: 39
The spread for this contest has stayed at Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1, but the total has increased from 38 to 39 points.
Winner Pools: Expect the Buccaneers to be used in roughly 70 percent of entries. This is one of my least favorite games on the slate, where I have no real conviction on either side. From a pure math standpoint, the Tennessee Titans are a solid leverage play. For my own entries, I will be slightly Buccaneers heavy.
Survivor Pools: I will avoid this matchup in survivor pools.
Score Prediction: Buccaneers 20, Titans 17
Lions at Chargers
Spread: Chargers +3
Total: 48.5
The spread for this contest has moved from Los Angeles Chargers +2.5 to Chargers +3. The total has stayed at 48.5 points.
Winner Pools: Expect the Detroit Lions to be used in roughly 75 percent of entries. The Chargers are an interesting leverage play as the more desperate team. I’d likely lean toward playing these teams at a roughly even split if Detroit wasn’t coming off a bye. As things stand, my ratio will be 65 percent Lions and 35 percent Chargers. If I had one winner pool entry, I’d probably take the Lions, but I would strongly consider the Chargers as a leverage play.
Survivor Pools: I will avoid this contest in survivor pools.
Score Prediction: Lions 24, Chargers 23
Falcons at Cardinals
Spread: Cardinals +2
Total: 43
The spread for this contest has moved from Arizona Cardinals +1 to Cardinals +2. The total has moved up from 42 to 43 points.
Winner Pools: Expect the Atlanta Falcons to be used in roughly 70 percent of entries. With Kyler Murray back, I will be slightly Cardinals heavy as a leverage play.
Survivor Pools: I will avoid this contest in survivor.
Score Prediction: Cardinals 23, Falcons 17
Giants at Cowboys
Spread: Cowboys -17
Total: 38.5
The spread for this contest has moved from Dallas Cowboys -16 to Cowboys -17. The total has stayed at 38.5 points.
Winner Pools: Expect Dallas to be used in nearly all entries. I’m going to use the Cowboys in all my own entries.
Survivor Pools: There are no sure things in survivor, but the Cowboys against Tommy DeVito are as close as it gets. The Cowboys will be chalk this week, but I will take them in most of my remaining entries where I still have Dallas available.
Score Prediction: Cowboys 34, Giants 3
Commanders at Seahawks
Spread: Seahawks -6
Total: 44.5
The spread for this contest has stayed at Seattle Seahawks -6, but the total has moved down from 46.5 to 44.5 points.
Winner Pools: Expect the Seahawks to be used in roughly 90 percent of entries. I expect Seattle to win, but Geno Smith has been unreliable enough over the last month for me to be a bit contrarian here. My ratio will be 75 percent Seahawks to 25 percent Washington Commanders.
Survivor Pools: I will use the Seahawks in one of my survivor entries, but I don’t have a ton of confidence in Seattle due to Smith’s uneven play.
Score Prediction: Seahawks 27, Commanders 23
Jets at Raiders
Spread: Raiders +1
Total: 36.5
The spread for this contest has moved from Las Vegas Raiders +1.5 to Raiders +1. The total has moved up slightly from 36 to 36.5 points.
Winner Pools: Expect the Raiders to be used in roughly 70 percent of entries. This will be my strongest stance of the week, as I will play the New York Jets in all of my entries.
Survivor Pools: I will avoid this contest in survivor.
Score Prediction: Jets 17, Raiders 9
Broncos at Bills
Spread: Bills -7
Total: 46.5
The spread for this contest has moved from Buffalo Bills -7.5 to Bills -7. The total has moved down slightly from 47 to 46.5 points.
Winner Pools: Expect the Bills to be used in over 90 percent of entries. I will be right in line with consensus on Buffalo in this matchup.
Survivor Pools: I used Buffalo early in most of my still active entries, but I will use them in one spot against Denver.
Score Prediction: Bills 27, Broncos 17
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Ryan is the associate director of fantasy and betting at The 33rd Team. He has been covering NFL betting markets for five years. Follow Ryan @RyanReynoldsNFL on Twitter, Instagram or Facebook.