2023 NFL Draft: Bold Predictions from NFL Executives
Analysis 4/27/23
Nobody understands how the NFL draft works like its general managers. The 33rd Team's four former executives weighed in on the eve of the 2023 NFL Draft with bold predictions for the first round.
Joe Banner, Mike Tannenbaum, Rick Spielman and Jeff Diamond have plenty of predictions, many of which include the game's most important position.
4 Bold Predictions for the 2023 NFL Draft
Banner: At Least One Top QB Falls Out of Top 10
Some have predicted that the first four picks in the draft will be quarterbacks. I predict that four quarterbacks won't even be taken in the top 10, but ultimately five will be taken by the end of the first round.
Joe Banner is a former front office executive for the Philadelphia Eagles and Cleveland Browns. He was part of an Eagles franchise that made a Super Bowl and played in four NFC Championship Games. Follow him on Twitter at @JoeBanner13
Tannenbaum: Quarterbacks Picked at Near-Record Rate
Five quarterbacks will go in the first round — Bryce Young (scouting report), C.J. Stroud (scouting report), Will Levis (scouting report), Hendon Hooker (scouting report) and Anthony Richardson (scouting report). That is something that’s only happened twice since 2000, in 2018 and 2021. Since 1970, only the famous six-quarterback class of 1983 that included Hall of Famers John Elway, Jim Kelly and Dan Marino has had more.
Mike Tannenbaum is a former front-office executive for the New York Jets and Miami Dolphins. Follow him on Twitter at @RealTannenbaum.
>>READ: Executive Mock Draft
Spielman: Receivers Experience First-Round Drought
I agree that five quarterbacks will go in the first round. However, it’s another story for the guys they throw to. Only two receivers — considered one of the NFL’s premium positions — will go in the first round, Jaxon Smith-Njigba (scouting report) and Quentin Johnston (scouting report). That goes against the recent trend. There were six selected in the first in 2022, five taken in 2021 and six picked in 2020.
Rick Spielman is a former general manager of the Dolphins and Vikings, and winner of the NFL Executive of the Year award by Pro Football Weekly in 2017. Follow him on Twitter @spielman_rick
Diamond: Vikings Make a Bold Move Up Board
The Minnesota Vikings will trade up from No. 23 overall to select Richardson if he doesn’t go high in the first round, likely costing them their 2024 first-round pick in the deal. Minnesota has not extended Kirk Cousins’ contract as his price tag has risen above his current $35 million per year, perhaps to the $45 million range, after a 13-win season that included eight come-from-behind victories but ended with a disappointing home playoff loss to the New York Giants. The Vikings like Cousins as a four-time Pro Bowler who is very durable but perhaps aren’t convinced he’s the quarterback to take them to the team’s first Super Bowl since the 1976 season.
The idea of drafting a talented quarterback in the first round, letting him sit and learn the ropes behind Cousins in 2023 and having him on a cheaper rookie deal for several years is appealing in the team-building process, if the quarterback develops into a star and winner as players such as Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow and Jalen Hurts have in recent years and Russell Wilson did early in his Seattle Seahawks career.
Jeff Diamond is a former Minnesota Vikings general manager and Titans team president. He was selected NFL Executive of the Year after the Vikings’ 15-1 season in 1998. Follow him on Twitter at @jeffdiamondnfl.