Fantasy
12/13/23
10 min read
2023 Fantasy Football Week 15: Players To Start, Sit
Josh Larky and Ryan Reynolds present The 33rd Team’s Start-Sit column for Week 15.
Full fantasy rankings can be found here.
Quarterbacks
Start: Matthew Stafford (QB3) vs. Commanders
Matthew Stafford has been red-hot in his past three games, averaging 267 passing yards, 3.3 touchdowns and 23.7 fantasy points per game. Cooper Kupp started to look like himself again last week (115 yards and a touchdown), and Puka Nacua is on pace for more than 1,450 receiving yards as a rookie.
If the season ended today, the Los Angeles Rams would squeak into the playoffs.
Fortunately for fantasy managers, the season won’t end today, and we’re lucky to witness one of the NFL’s best quarterbacks this season (Stafford) take on the league’s worst pass defense — it’s not even close.
In the past 10 games, quarterbacks against the Commanders have thrown for 66 more passing yards than their season average. For Stafford, his 255 passing yards per game would then be estimated at 321 yards this week.
Expect around 300 passing yards and multiple touchdowns from the Rams signal caller as he continues to orchestrate a playoff run for Los Angeles.
Sit: Trevor Lawrence (QB15) vs. Ravens
Trevor Lawrence suffered a high ankle sprain in Week 13 against the Bengals. He left that game and never returned, and generally, this is a 4-6 week injury.
In Week 14, Lawrence heroically suited up against the Browns but was clearly hampered by the ankle. Three passing touchdowns salvaged his fantasy day, but Lawrence threw three picks and took four sacks. Clearly, he wasn’t himself, and this matchup against the Ravens should be no different.
When adjusting for schedule, the Ravens are the fifth-hardest matchup for opposing QBs. Passers score 2.3 fewer fantasy points per game than their season-long average.
The Ravens have generated pressure on 37.9 percent of QB dropbacks, the ninth-highest rate in the league. Last week, Lawrence was pressured by the Browns on 26 dropbacks, by far the most of any QB this year.
Yet, his average time to throw of 2.35 seconds was his fastest mark in the past five games. This hints at a lack of mobility in the pocket, which should hurt him again this week.
Lawrence has racked up four straight games with at least 20 fantasy points, but that streak should end this weekend.
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Running Back
Start: D’Andre Swift (RB16) vs. Seahawks
It’s been bad news for D’Andre Swift the past two games, as he’s totaled just 7.9 fantasy points. Those games came against the 49ers and Cowboys, and Swift was listed as a sit in last week’s article.
This game against the Seahawks is different. Unlike the prior two games, the Philadelphia Eagles come into this one as favorites, so the game script is more likely to be in Swift’s favor. The Seahawks are also the sixth-best matchup for fantasy running backs, allowing 2.7 more fantasy points per game than expected (after adjusting for schedule).
In the past six games, seven different RBs have reached 16 fantasy points against Seattle. Swift is the team’s workhorse when leading, and the Eagles need a statement win to remain live for the NFC’s No. 1 seed. Expect 15-20 efficient carries from Swift, with some pass-game involvement, too.
Start: Jaylen Warren (RB22) vs. Colts
Jaylen Warren had consecutive games with more than 100 rushing yards and at least 19 fantasy points in Weeks 10 and 11. In the three games since, he’s failed to reach 60 yards on the ground or 10 fantasy points.
It was clear last week the Pittsburgh Steelers don’t trust QB Mitch Trubisky, and they intend to be a run-heavy team whenever the game script allows. Unfortunately, an improbable three-touchdown pass first half from Bailey Zappe forced the Steelers into comeback mode.
Assuming the Colts don’t jump out to an early multi-touchdown lead, Warren should return to fantasy relevance. When factoring in opponents faced, the Colts allow 6.1 more fantasy points to RB rooms than expected, the second-highest in the NFL.
The Steelers have never had a losing season under Mike Tomlin, and at 7-6, they’ll be desperate against a feisty Colts team. Expect Warren to flirt with 15 fantasy points again.
Sit: Kenneth Walker (RB32) vs. Eagles
Kenneth Walker made his return from injury in Week 14, creating an annoying RB committee for fantasy football. Walker out-snapped Zach Charbonnet 32-22 but only out-touched him 12-10.
Granted, this came in a trailing game script against the 49ers. Unfortunately, the Seattle Seahawks could find themselves in a trailing game script against the Eagles.
Philadelphia has shut down fantasy RBs this year, allowing 5.9 fewer fantasy points to RB rooms than their season averages. No other team is remotely close, with the Patriots (-3.5 fantasy points compared to expectation) ranking as the second-most difficult matchup.
Last week, Walker and Charbonnet failed to reach double-digit fantasy points, and more of the same is likely in store.
Sit: Keaton Mitchell (RB36) vs. Jaguars
In Week 12, Keaton Mitchell led the Baltimore Ravens’ backfield in snaps (32), carries (nine), routes (14), targets (two) and total yards (89).
After the team’s Week 13 bye, the Ravens scaled back on the rookie’s workload. While Mitchell still led the team in carries again (nine), he ran fewer routes than Justice Hill and Gus Edwards. Overall, we have yet to see Mitchell reach 10 carries this year, and he’s only reached two receptions in a game once.
The workload is limited and mostly focused on the ground. Now, he faces a Jaguars team allowing the fifth-fewest yards per carry to RBs (3.7). There are many better options in fantasy this week, and Mitchell’s big play ability is unlikely to be a factor if he’s not getting many touches in a difficult matchup.
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Wide Receiver
Start: Zay Flowers (WR24) vs. Jaguars
While the Jaguars are one of the NFL’s better run defenses, the same cannot be said for their secondary. Jacksonville has allowed at least 296 passing yards in four of its past five games, and QBs have averaged an incredible 8.8 yards per pass attempt during that span.
This five-game stretch includes Jake Browning, Joe Flacco and Will Levis, so Lamar Jackson is more than able to shred this unit.
Wide receiver rooms average 5.3 more fantasy points per game against the Jaguars than expected, the fourth-highest mark in the league.
Zay Flowers has a target share of at least 25 percent in three of the team’s past four games, and he should benefit the most from this matchup.
Flowers doesn’t have a crazy ceiling because he operates closer to the line of scrimmage, but fantasy managers should still get 13-18 fantasy points from him.
Start: Jayden Reed (WR31) vs. Buccaneers
Jayden Reed predictably expanded his role in Week 14 with Christian Watson sidelined due to a hamstring injury. Reed was targeted 10 times (26 percent share) and handled a career-high four carries, rushing for 38 yards and a score.
The Packers are making a concerted effort to get the second-round rookie involved weekly, and he’s reached 15 PPR fantasy points in four of his past five games.
The Buccaneers are the NFL’s most extreme pass funnel defense, with opposing QBs throwing for 281 yards per game (second-highest). RB rooms are only averaging 84 rushing yards each week against Tampa Bay.
For fantasy receivers, the Buccaneers are the third-best schedule-adjusted matchup, and Reed should have a strong fantasy day as the Green Bay Packers top passing-game playmaker.
Sit: Adam Thielen (WR39) vs. Falcons
Adam Thielen started off the season on a tear, averaging 9.8 targets, 8.2 receptions, 85 yards and 20.8 PPR fantasy points per game through six weeks. Then, the Carolina Panthers had their Week 7 bye. Since then, he’s been a completely different receiver.
In his next seven games, he averaged 45 yards and 9.7 fantasy points per game. The past three games have been particularly dire, with Jonathan Mingo out-targeting him in each contest.
The 33-year-old veteran appears to be losing steam, and the Panthers have been under 200 scoreless passing yards in four of their past five games. The Falcons also rank as the third-worst matchup for fantasy receivers after adjusting for schedule.
Sit: Noah Brown (WR41) vs. Titans
At face value, Noah Brown looks like a great play. The Titans are the fifth-best schedule-adjusted matchup for fantasy receivers, and WR Nico Collins is unlikely to play due to a calf strain. The issue is QB C.J. Stroud is in the concussion protocol.
Most likely, Davis Mills draws the start against a Titans team with a top-10 pressure rate (37.4 percent). Betting on a Mills pass attack down its top-two weapons in Collins and Tank Dell isn’t appealing, and Vegas agrees.
The Texans are three-point underdogs in a game with a pathetically low 38-point game total. Brown should not be more than a team’s third pass-game option, and he’s over-matched in this spot, catching passes from a backup quarterback. There are at least 40 better fantasy options to start this week.
Full fantasy rankings can be found here.
Tight End
Start: Dalton Kincaid (TE7) vs. Cowboys
Dawson Knox returned from injury in Week 14, and the concern was Dalton Kincaid’s role would shrink as a result. Kincaid ended up leading Bills’ pass-catchers with 42 routes run, and he finished second behind Stefon Diggs with eight targets — only Evan Engram and Travis Kelce finished Week 14 with more targets at the position.
On paper, the Cowboys look like a below-average matchup for fantasy tight ends. However, they haven’t faced many good ones. When adjusting for schedule, this is actually a slightly above-average matchup for Kincaid. With the highest projected game total (51) of Week 15, do not sit Kincaid.
Sit Pat Freiermuth (TE18) vs. Colts
The Steelers don’t trust Trubisky — and for good reason. Even in a trailing game script last week, Trubisky failed to crest 200 passing yards on 35 attempts. The Colts rank third with 42 sacks on the season, and their 15 forced fumbles are third, as well.
It’s tough to see the team allowing Trubisky the passing volume he needs to satiate Diontae Johnson, George Pickens and Pat Freiermuth in fantasy football.
In the past two games with Trubisky, Freiermuth recorded target shares of 19 and 20 percent, respectively, both those marks tied for the team lead.
Still, the result was only 12 targets, six receptions and 47 total yards. Freiermuth is a great player, but he’s being dragged down too much by his offensive environment to be a fantasy TE1 in Week 15.
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