Betting
12/30/23
4 min read
2023 Fantasy Football: NFL Week 17 Underdog Fantasy Battle Royale Picks
If you are new to Battle Royale, check out our strategy guide.
GAME ENVIRONMENT DASHBOARD
The largest main slate to date with 13 games gives us tons of options and great under-drafted selections. I’d be doing a disservice to the complexity of the slate by trying to break down every position in this short article, so let’s discuss a few value plays.
Quarterbacks
Based on ADP, it appears quarterbacks through Patrick Mahomes (ADP 30.7) are being chosen in most drafts, leaving only one (sometimes additional) selection to be from the remaining guys. Certainly, the top three are always selected.
Matthew Stafford, CJ Stroud, Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray and Tua Tagovailoa (QB7-11) all have the ceiling to get there but aren’t often selected. Stack them within their team and game once the top three quarterbacks are off the board, and no 49ers are on your roster.
Tagovailoa stands out as the best value to ADP. Numerous elements are working against him with injuries and the matchup, and this certainly drives down his median outcome, but we’ve all seen what this offense can do when firing. A similar pocket passer in Stafford could throw for 300 and three touchdowns against the Baltimore Ravens. Highly prioritize Tagovailoa paired with Tyreek Hill.
Running Backs
There’s a bit of a drop-off at running back after Derrick Henry, RB10. After that, there is a large tier of players that project similarly but become increasingly less drafted.
Kenneth Walker, RB19 in ADP, has not practiced yet, and there is no word on his Friday practice status as of 3 p.m. EST. Considering he played last week with the same shoulder injury and “illness” on Thursday, it is unlikely to hold a player out Sunday; I believe he will play. Given this, he is being drafted far too low for a boom-or-bust type of player that we want to target. Walker has big play and touchdown upside, ranking 10th in touchdown likelihood on the slate. The Pittsburgh Steelers have given up the eighth-most fantasy points and 6th most rushing yards to running backs over the past four weeks.
Devin Singletary, RB21 in ADP, has cemented himself as the guy in this backfield. So much so that they even have Dameon Pierce returning kicks now. Singletary did not do much last week but saw almost every meaningful snap. I’m willing to look past the efficiency with Case Keenum against the Browns, given it’s CJ Stroud versus a banged-up Tennessee Titans defense this week.
Wide Receivers
Michael Pittman, WR16 in ADP, is likely this low due to concussion uncertainty, but as of Friday afternoon he is good to go. He was a full participant in practice Thursday though, so this should’ve been expected. Pittman has been a stud with Gardner Minshew, and they should resume where they left off. He’s the 9th most likely receiver to score and he projects for the 3rd most yards. This ADP is not right and will rise quickly.
DeAndre Hopkins, WR24 in ADP, is essentially never drafted. The game environment is sneaky good as both these teams are high variance on offense. Hopkins has seen consistent downfield usage and Will Levis is on track to start as of Friday afternoon. These two pair well together for high ceiling outcomes. The Houston Texans are dealing with numerous defense injuries and have been 10th worst against receivers over the past month. Hopkins ranks about 10 spots higher than ADP in touchdown equity and yardage projections.
Tight Ends
Per usual, the tight end ADP is efficient and drops off quickly. Here’s how I see things:
Tier 1 – Travis Kelce
Tier 2 – George Kittle
Tier 3 – Trey McBride, Evan Engram
Tier 4 – Evan Engram, Dallas Goedert, Dalton Schultz
Tier 5 – Everyone else
When selecting from tier 4 and beyond, make sure to use correlation and drafted frequency as tiebreakers. Given Dalton Schultz is TE7 in ADP, he is likely significantly less drafted than the six players above him. He’s got the ceiling and now returns CJ Stroud to the lineup.
