Analysis
12/17/22
11 min read
Week 15 DFS Main Slate Tournament Games Advice
If you are new to DFS, check out our introductory pieces, such as DFS 101, Contest Selection, Stacking, Rostership, Leverage, and Lineup Construction.
Below we will take a look at some of the double stacks, single stacks, and mini stacks I will be looking to take advantage of this weekend. If you have any questions, ask them on our 33rd Team Discord.
We also have Rostership Data for FREE, which can be found in the link below! https://www.the33rdteam.com/dfs/how-to-utilize-rostership-data-to-win-dfs-tournaments/
Double Stacks
Stack: QB Justin Herbert, WR Keenan Allen and WR Mike Williams
Runback: RB Derrick Henry
The Titans' secondary is depleted, and Herbert's receiving corps is fully healthy. There is a chance for the Chargers to fall into a negative game script with Henry early on in the game, which will lead to the volume you need from Herbert. This will be a popular build, so you will need to get unique with the cheap pieces to fill out the lineup, and I have found quite a few that can do that. With Allen and Williams on the field together, Herbert averages over eight yards per attempt, combining for most of the work.
The Titans will be without seven defensive starters, and their only hope is that their defensive line dominates. Their secondary has been beaten from the slot and out wide, and we should expect both players to get it done. Josh Palmer will be less popular than these two, but after looking through the data, I don’t believe you need to get different with this build.
Stack: QB Dak Prescott, WR CeeDee Lamb and TE Dalton Schultz
Runback: WR Marvin Jones
The Jaguars give up the seventh most points to opposing quarterbacks on DraftKings, and two of their last four opponents have thrown for over 300 yards. Prescott has yet to have a game over 300 yards passing this season, but he has a chance to do it against this defense. They will play a lot of Cover 1 and Cover 3 to keep a player in the box against the run, giving Lamb all he needs to put up big numbers. In games where the Cowboys had Prescott with Lamb and saw over 60% Cover 1 or Cover 3 coverage, Lamb went for over 100 yards receiving.
The Jaguars have also been unable to defend elite wide receivers, as Davante Adams, Michael Pittman Jr., and Amon-Ra St. Brown had very high point totals. I want the touchdown equity with Prescott, leading me to Schultz. With Prescott, Schultz leads the team with targets at 11 and touchdowns in the red zone.
I am going cheap at the run back with Marvin Jones because the Cowboys' boundary corners are hurt, and Jones can win against their replacements. Jones leads the team in routes out wide and is running over 60% of the snaps. The Cowboys have defended the slot extremely well, and that’s where the other players on the Jaguars have made plays.
Stack: QB Andy Dalton, WR Chris Olave and WR Rashid Shaheed
Runback: WR Drake London
According to the trenches tool, the Saints' offensive line has a significant advantage over the Falcons' pass rush. Against the Falcons' primary coverages, Olave has a 29.4% target share and averages 2.72 yards per route run. With Andy Dalton as the starter, both numbers increase, and the Falcons have allowed plenty of big games to wide receivers this season. Double-stacking with Dalton is relatively easy because Shaheed is cheap and what he brings is perfect. The Saints will be able to protect Dalton, allowing him to push the ball down the field, and Shaheed has been the catalyst for that. He has run over 60% of the routes for three weeks straight and has had back-to-back games of over 50 yards receiving.
Desmond Ridder will start for the Falcons, and I believe most of his targets will go to London. Against the Saints' primary coverages this year, London has a 43.6% target share and gets targeted on 40.7% of his routes. Theirs an added factor that these players drafted together as rookies have spent a lot of time together and, during rookie mini-camp, built a connection.
Stack: QB Zach Wilson,WR Elijah Moore and TE Tyler Conklin
Runback: WR Amon-Ra St. Brown
I don’t believe this stack has the upside to win the Milly Maker, but at the cost, it’s a high upside stack that allows you to get to the top options. The Jets have an advantage in pass blocking against the Lions, and when Zach Wilson is not pressured, he ranks 10th in the NFL in yards per attempt. The Lions have not found an answer in defending the slot, and 13 wide receivers have at least 60 yards from the slot. 78% of Moore’s routes have been from the slot in the last two games, and I expect Wilson to get Jeff Okudah to shadow him. The Lions will also put a safety over Okudah against Wilson, which will be difficult to break free. The Lions have also struggled against in-line tight ends, and Conklin has caught two touchdowns from Wilson this season.
The Jets have an elite defense, but Ben Johnson will be able to scheme St. Brown open in this game. St. Brown, against the primary coverages of the Jets, has a 32.8% target share, 36.0% target per route, and averages 3.12 yards per route.
Lions vs. Jets
Lions: Cover 1/3
Jets Primary:Garrett Wilson
23.8% TGT
23.9% TPRR
2.15 YPRRJets: Cover 4/1
Lions Primary:Amon-Ra St. Brown
32.8% TGT
36.0% TPRR
3.12 YPRR— Jordan Vanek (@JordanVanekDFS) December 15, 2022
Single Stacks
Stack: QB Jalen Hurts and WR DeVonta Smith
Runback: TE Cole Kmet
The Bears defense has been beaten in every way possible this season and Jalen Hurts hasn’t needed close games to produce in fantasy. I will be looking to get a piece of this Eagles offense between a Hurts and Smith stack or Miles Sanders. The Bears have mixed up coverages this season but lack the talent to run any of them effectively. Since the Roquan Smith trade, the Bears are giving up 8.6 yards per attempt and have allowed three quarterbacks to have over nine yards per passing attempt. A.J. Brown has reached a price point that is hard to get to, and I don’t believe they will need to utilize his game much against the Bears. Smith has had eight or more targets in five straight games and will be able to find the soft spots in this zone defense.
Cole Kmet is one of the top Bears pass catchers, and the Eagles have allowed the 10th most points to in-line tight ends this season. The Bears are without Darnell Mooney and Chase Claypool, and Kmet already had four of his last five games with six or more targets. If the Bears get into the red zone, it’ll be a lot of running or play-action to Kmet.
Mini-Stacks
Cincinnati at Tampa Bay
WR Ja’Marr Chase and WR Mike Evans
The Bengals have Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd dealing with injuries, and Chase is fully healthy. The Buccaneers have three players questionable in their secondary, and they have already ruled out Vita Vea and Jamel Dean. Chase has had 23 targets in the last two games, and I expect that volume to be there for this game. In the regular season, Chase has had 11 games where he’s been targeted ten or more times; in eight of these games, he went for over 100 yards or scored a touchdown.
The Bengals have played a lot of man coverage as of late, and I expect that to be the same in this matchup because Tom Brady has struggled against man coverage this year. Evans will need to win on the outside and make a big play for the Buccaneers to keep them in the game. I expect the Bengals to do everything they can to take away Chris Godwin and leave Evans with single coverage on the outside.
Arizona at Denver
RB James Conner and D/ST Cardinals
In the last four games, Conner has averaged over 20 touches and 1.3 touchdowns a game. The Cardinals will be leaning on him without Kyler Murray, and the Broncos have been beaten in the run game this season. The Broncos give up 4.6 yards per carry on the year and three running backs to have over 100 yards in a game. They haven’t allowed many rushing touchdowns, but with Colt McCoy, I do not expect the Cardinals to pass much in the red zone.
One-Offs
Kansas City Chiefs Players
I didn’t include Patrick Mahomes this week, but I am not ignoring the matchup for the Chiefs. The Texans run two safeties back at a high rate, leaving them with a light box that both Isiah Pacheco and Jerick McKinnon will have room to run. In the passing game, Juju Smith-Schuster and Travis Kelce have been the main targets for the Chiefs against this coverage. These two are the only players with over a 20% target share against this coverage, and they both fit into sitting into the soft spots of these zone coverages.
Defenses
Cardinals
The Cardinals will bring a lot of pressure against this Broncos front and play zone. Brett Rypien averages 4.4 yards per attempt against zone this season and is not mobile enough to escape any sacks.
Patriots
Bill Belichick against a person who coached with him for plenty of years is a matchup I believe is in Belichick’s favor. The Patriots have the advantage on the defensive line, and when Derek Carr gets pressured, he will turn the ball over. The Patriots are a pivot off of the Broncos' defense.
Broncos
The Broncos are playing against Colt McCoy and Kliff Kingsbury. They have a great defense that’s been hurt by their poor offensive play. While the Broncos have failed as an offense, if they only scored 20 points in each game, they’d have a winning record.
Titans
This game is very popular on the offensive side of the ball, but the Titans are the best option out of the cheap defenses. Derrick Henry has a distinct advantage in the run game, and their pass rush has an advantage on the Chargers' offensive line. Justin Herbert has been sacked four times in four straight games. The Titans will need their new defensive backs to step up, but when you can get enough pressure with four and stop the run, you will be able to keep players in the secondary.
Week 15 DFS Main Slate Player Pool
| Player | Pos | Team | Opp | DK Salary | FD Salary | VegasPts |
| Jalen Hurts | QB | PHI | @ CHI | $8,200 | $9,000 | 28.75 |
| Justin Herbert | QB | LAC | vs TEN | $7,200 | $8,300 | 24.75 |
| Dak Prescott | QB | DAL | @ JAC | $6,200 | $7,500 | 26 |
| Andy Dalton | QB | NO | vs ATL | $5,200 | $6,700 | 23.75 |
| Zach Wilson | QB | NYJ | vs DET | $5,100 | $6,400 | 21.25 |
| Austin Ekeler | RB | LAC | vs TEN | $8,500 | $8,700 | 24.75 |
| Derrick Henry | RB | TEN | @ LAC | $8,000 | $8,900 | 21.75 |
| James Conner | RB | ARI | @ DEN | $6,900 | $7,200 | 17.25 |
| Alvin Kamara | RB | NO | vs ATL | $6,800 | $7,600 | 23.75 |
| Miles Sanders | RB | PHI | @ CHI | $6,500 | $7,800 | 28.75 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | RB | ATL | @ NO | $5,900 | $6,300 | 19.75 |
| Isiah Pacheco | RB | KC | @ HOU | $5,900 | $7,600 | 31.75 |
| D'Andre Swift | RB | DET | @ NYJ | $5,700 | $6,600 | 22.25 |
| Najee Harris | RB | PIT | @ CAR | $5,700 | $6,600 | 17.25 |
| Jerick McKinnon | RB | KC | @ HOU | $5,200 | $6,200 | 31.75 |
| Davante Adams | WR | LV | vs NE | $9,000 | $8,500 | 22.75 |
| JaMarr Chase | WR | CIN | @ TB | $8,300 | $9,000 | 23.75 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | WR | DET | @ NYJ | $7,800 | $8,400 | 22.25 |
| CeeDee Lamb | WR | DAL | @ JAC | $7,300 | $8,100 | 26 |
| Keenan Allen | WR | LAC | vs TEN | $6,800 | $8,000 | 24.75 |
| Chris Godwin | WR | TB | vs CIN | $6,700 | $7,000 | 20.75 |
| Christian Kirk | WR | JAC | vs DAL | $6,600 | $7,100 | 22 |
| Chris Olave | WR | NO | vs ATL | $6,500 | $7,100 | 23.75 |
| DeVonta Smith | WR | PHI | @ CHI | $6,400 | $7,200 | 28.75 |
| Mike Williams | WR | LAC | vs TEN | $6,300 | $7,200 | 24.75 |
| Mike Evans | WR | TB | vs CIN | $6,200 | $6,900 | 20.75 |
| Garrett Wilson | WR | NYJ | vs DET | $6,000 | $7,800 | 21.25 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | WR | KC | @ HOU | $5,800 | $7,300 | 31.75 |
| Josh Palmer | WR | LAC | vs TEN | $5,600 | $6,500 | 24.75 |
| Zay Jones | WR | JAC | vs DAL | $4,900 | $6,300 | 22 |
| Drake London | WR | ATL | @ NO | $4,700 | $6,300 | 19.75 |
| Michael Gallup | WR | DAL | @ JAC | $4,500 | $5,700 | 26 |
| D.J. Chark | WR | DET | @ NYJ | $4,500 | $6,100 | 22.25 |
| Jarvis Landry | WR | NO | vs ATL | $3,800 | $5,500 | 23.75 |
| Elijah Moore | WR | NYJ | vs DET | $3,600 | $5,600 | 21.25 |
| Marvin Jones | WR | JAC | vs DAL | $3,400 | $5,300 | 22 |
| Rashid Shaheed | WR | NO | vs ATL | $3,200 | $5,400 | 23.75 |
| Travis Kelce | TE | KC | @ HOU | $7,800 | $8,000 | 31.75 |
| Dalton Schultz | TE | DAL | @ JAC | $4,400 | $6,500 | 26 |
| Gerald Everett | TE | LAC | vs TEN | $4,300 | $5,600 | 24.75 |
| Cole Kmet | TE | CHI | vs PHI | $4,000 | $5,300 | 19.75 |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | NO | vs ATL | $3,400 | $5,200 | 23.75 |
| Hunter Henry | TE | NE | @ LV | $3,300 | $5,200 | 21.75 |
| Tyler Conklin | TE | NYJ | vs DET | $3,100 | $5,000 | 21.25 |
| Cardinals | DST | ARI | @ DEN | $3,400 | $4,400 | 20.25 |
| Patriots | DST | NE | @ LV | $2,800 | $4,700 | 22.75 |
| Broncos | DST | DEN | vs ARI | $2,700 | $3,700 | 17.25 |
| Titans | DST | TEN | @ LAC | $2,200 | $3,900 | 24.75 |
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