Up for Debate: Why Did Will Levis Drop, What Happens Now?
Analysis 4/28/23
At one point in the buildup to the 2023 NFL Draft, Kentucky’s Will Levis (scouting report) was the oddsmakers’ second favorite to be selected among quarterbacks. Then he lasted the entire first round Thursday night.
Draft experts from The 33rd Team, all former NFL team decision-makers, believe it won’t be long before Levis hears his name in Round 2. Here’s what Mike Tannenbaum, Joe Banner, Bill Polian and Jeff Diamond think happened on Day 1 – and what is likely to occur on Day 2.
Why Did Levis Drop, What Happens Now?
Tannenbaum: A Difficult Evaluation
“There were three teams that clearly needed a quarterback – Carolina, Houston and Indianapolis – and he is the fourth. So there was a slide, and apparently, any trades back into the first round didn’t materialize. I thought that was going to happen, a trade back in with maybe the Rams or Seattle or Tennessee. All those teams — drafting within the first 10 picks of the second round — could potentially be positioning to take Levis. I could also see Minnesota doing so, although the cost to move up could be prohibitive since the Vikings' first — and only — pick of Day 2 doesn't come until 24 selections into Round 3.
“Levis is a difficult evaluation. I saw some Ben Roethlisberger and Brady Quinn in his game. He’s competitive and strong and tough and makes great plays, but we also see inaccuracies and forced throws.
“As we saw, the difference between the third and fourth quarterbacks can be a whole round. Going in the second round is not a bad thing.
“I think it is possible Hendon Hooker (scouting report) will go in the second round before Levis, but it’s doubtful. I like Hooker for the long term better, but more people will see Levis as more of a sure thing.”
Mike Tannenbaum is a former front-office executive for the New York Jets and Miami Dolphins. Follow him on Twitter at @RealTannenbaum.
Joe Banner: Tape Doesn't Lie
“Levis' 2022 tape is not great. I don’t think he is a good decision-maker, and he is inaccurate. So I’m not surprised he fell, but I thought maybe it would be to between 15 and 20. Once he got past Washington at 16, there was really nobody who needed a quarterback. There were only a couple who maybe could have picked him, like the Giants, who believe in Daniel Jones, or Seattle, who believe in Geno Smith. Time will tell if they are right.
“I do think it is likely he will go early in Round 2 and somebody will trade up for him. Teams were interested in him, just not enough to trade up into the first round.
“Some were saying Tennessee would be the team, but the Titans have a quarterback they like. But Ryan Tannehill won't be the answer for the next 10 years, so if they have a chance to get a guy they like, they might have done it. The Rams do not have a lot of draft capital, but maybe they have enough to move up if they like him.
“It’s possible Hendon Hooker goes before Levis. Both have attributes that are worth a lot and some things that are scary.”
Joe Banner is a former front office executive for the Philadelphia Eagles and Cleveland Browns. He was a part of an Eagles franchise that made a Super Bowl and played in four NFC Championship Games. Follow him on Twitter at @JoeBanner13
Bill Polian: Round 2 Trade-Up Candidate
“First and foremost, once Levis got past the top people with obvious quarterback needs, the other teams were looking at other positions. There may have been folks who would have taken him but there was a guy they rated higher and they couldn’t pass up.
“I expect he will go off the board immediately in Round 2, people will come up to get him. I think a lot of those teams said they would wait until Round 2 and they addressed other priorities.
“Trading back into the first (round), I thought maybe when he fell past 25 or so that could happen, it might be tied to having that fifth-year option. Maybe what was offered simply was not good enough. Also, I think the fifth-year option is nice to have but not an absolute must. If you have a player sitting there in the first round and he can help immediately at a position of need, you go that way and say, `Maybe we will take a swing at Levis the next time around.’
“As for Hooker, conventional wisdom would say no, he won’t go before Levis. But anything is possible. People’s boards are not universally the same, it could well be Hooker first.”
Bill Polian is a former front office executive and a six-time Executive of the Year award winner who won Super Bowl XLI with the Indianapolis Colts. Polian’s career as an executive earned him an induction into the Pro Football Hall of Fame in 2015.
Diamond: Chip-on-Shoulder Motivator
“One of the big first-round stories was the slide by Levis. I expect him to be picked early in Round 2 by teams possibly looking to draft a young quarterback, including the Rams, Raiders, Titans, Falcons, Commanders, Buccaneers or possibly the Lions. They all have picks between Nos. 32 and 50.
“It’s always painful to watch a supposed top prospect fall as the cameras are focused on them. There is at least one report that some teams are concerned about a toe injury that could require surgery. I don’t think that is a big enough injury to cause a drop out of the first round. I think it’s more about the 23 interceptions he threw over the last two seasons — and perceived arrogance from a personality standpoint.
“One thing is certain: Levis will enter the league with a huge chip on his shoulder after he was projected in many mock drafts to go in the top 10. But he’s talented enough that he’ll have an opportunity to prove wrong the teams that passed on him, as was the case with Drew Brees and Jalen Hurts, who were second-rounders. And Russell Wilson and Joe Montana, both third-rounders. And, of course, the G.O.A.T., Tom Brady, who fell to the sixth round in 2000.”
Jeff Diamond is a former Minnesota Vikings general manager and Titans team president. He was selected NFL Executive of the Year after the Vikings’ 15-1 season in 1998. Follow him on Twitter at @jeffdiamondnfl.