Analysis
11/2/22
8 min read
The Wednesday Watchman: NFL Week 9 Betting, DFS and Fantasy Information to Know
Fly, Eagles, Fly! Jalen Hurts and A.J. Brown took care of business, the Giants finally stumbled and Tony Pollard reminded us why Jerry Jones shouldn’t be micromanaging the Cowboys' personnel decisions.
A wild Week 8 saw some exciting action (finally), as the Falcons and Panthers provided high drama to the viewers. Panthers RB D’Onta Foreman scored thrice as a must-have budget player in tournaments. Wide receiver D.J. Moore was a top-recommended player last week, and while his bomb touchdown put the exclamation point on that prescription, his helmet removal caused quite a series of events. After two missed game-winning kicks by the Panthers, the Falcons pulled out the victory. Strangely, Carolina is now in last place in the NFC South, but had they won, they would have been in first place.
Dolphins-Lions was a decent offensive display. Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle all hit in a big way, as predicted. While the Lions did have success passing (321 yards), Jared Goff spread the ball around, limiting individual receiving upside.
Cardinals-Vikings turned out just how we thought, given our focus stat. Over 49 was easy money (60 total points scored). Our recommendations of Kyler Murray, DeAndre Hopkins, Zach Ertz, Kirk Cousins and fading Adam Thielen all panned out beautifully. Justin Jefferson was “just okay” and Irv Smith couldn’t capitalize on the dismal TE defense of Arizona.
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The Raiders let the Saints (and a sickness, which caused many players to appear on the injury report) get the best of them. While we thought the Saints’ pass game would be good (it was), it was RB Alvin Kamara who was the “WR1” for this one; he had 158 total yards and three touchdowns!
Generally, when a defense concedes many yards, it also allows many points. Those that give up yards but not points are due for regression to the mean. For this week, let’s look at regression candidates considering the two factors of yards and points.
Teams playing defenses below the line of best fit (due to giving up more points based on the elevated amount yards they allow):
Chiefs (vs. Titans)
Commanders (vs. Vikings)
Vikings (vs. Commanders)
Eagles (vs. Texans)
Raiders (vs. Jaguars)
Dolphins (vs. Bears)
Betting
We have a classic showdown with the Titans visiting the Chiefs in a 2019 AFC championship game rematch. The Chiefs are favored by 12.5. Both teams are top-10 against the run, so the passing game script favors the over (O/U 46). However, rookie QB Malik Willis, who made his first start last week and only threw 10 passes, is still finding his sea legs.
With Cousins coming home to play his former team, the Commanders and Vikings are both on our shortlist, which means fireworks should commence. The Vikings are road favorites by 3.5 points, but the total is a lowly 43.5. Maybe it's a trap, but I will be slamming the over.
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The exemplary Eagles (-13.5) take on the Texans in what could be a surprisingly low-scoring game. Both defenses are run-funnels, and both offenses have playmaking RBs. It is also a Thursday night game, which has been kind to under bets. These factors seem counterintuitive considering the premise of our focus stat, so I might just stay away (lean under).
The Raiders (-1.5) will hopefully have shed their sickness by game time here in a bounce-back spot facing the Jaguars. As the Raiders are a pass-funnel offense, the clock may not tick as quickly for these teams. The O/U is 48, which seems right.
The resurgent Dolphins (-5) will face a Bears team showing signs of life. We have seen that both teams can put up points when they put their minds to it. Bears QB Justin Fields tore apart a Bill Belichick defense two weeks ago. The total is currently at 44.5. I am on the over.
DFS
The Eagles are playing on Thursday, and therefore not of interest for main slate analysis. However, for the showdown slate, play the run games. I would be interested in Eagles RB Miles Sanders and Hurts together, with Texans RB Dameon Pierce as a bring back. I'd probably include the Eagles’ defense, also.
The Titans are excellent against the run, so this is a Mahomes smash spot. Unfortunately for us, this game is Sunday night football, and therefore not on the main slate. Chiefs WR Juju Smith-Schuster should be on your radar against the 26th-ranked WR defense, and TE Travis Kelce is always in play; the Titans' defense is a middling 18th in TE EPA. New addition WR Kadarius Toney will likely need time to adjust to the playbook.
On the other side, I think Willis is much better than what we saw last week. In a situation where he will presumably need to keep up with the juggernaut Chiefs offense, he could be a low-owned, high-ceiling option. If he is successful and keeping up, it will likely be Titans WR Robert Woods on the receiving end of many targets. The Chiefs' defense is bottom-four in both WR EPA and slot WR EPA.
Considering the main slate, I am very interested in Commanders QB Taylor Heinicke ($5400) this week. He is playing a Vikings defense ranked 31st in net yards per pass attempt. I would pair him with none other than WR Terry McLaurin ($5900), last week's hero. The Vikings struggle mightily against wide receivers, ranking 28th in EPA. Look at what Hopkins did to them last week.
The Vikings and Cousins ($6200) also have an opportunity to get their pass game going. The Commanders' defense has the third-worst interception rate in the league, and while their defense is top-six against TEs, RBs and slot WRs, they can be beaten by receivers out wide. The Vikings scheme Jefferson ($8600) the ball, and I trust they will find ways to get him in good situations. I will avoid new addition TE T.J. Hockenson and RB Dalvin Cook.
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The Raiders really flopped last week. Jacksonville’s defense is not giving up many yards per rush (fourth), but they struggle against TEs and slot WRs. Raiders WR Davante Adams ($8100) is only running 21.3% of his routes from the slot, but his yards per route run is significantly better on slot routes than out wide (2.35 vs. 1.87). Coach Josh McDaniels is a schemer, so hopefully, Adams will get some slot reps in the game. If TE Darren Waller ($4900) is healthy, I would be buying in. QB Derek Carr ($5400) is viable.
The Raiders' defense is simple: don't run and do target receivers. They are allowing a 46% third down conversion rate (29th), and have the league's worst sack rate, along with the league's worst EPA to slot WRs. They aren't much better against WRs as a whole, ranking 27th. Jaguars WR Christian Kirk ($5500) should be heavily utilized and a serious consideration for any lineup you enter. Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence ($5200) has had his ups and downs, but he can run the ball, and we'll need to pass to succeed in this game.
Tagovailoa ($6700) looks to have recovered from his concussions. The Dolphins annihilated Detroit's terrible pass defense last week, as expected. We might see a repeat performance this week. The Bears are terrible against slot receivers and RBs. Fortunately for the Dolphins, both Waddle ($7400) and Hill ($8500) spend a significant portion of their routes in the slot. It seems like Hill gets the yards and Waddle gets the touchdowns, one or both of them are bound to have some positive regression.
Waivers
Check out what my colleagues are saying about waiver pick-ups! If Chase Claypool is available, I would.
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Check in again next time for The Wednesday Watchman: Week 10!
(Data courtesy of SIS and TruMedia Networks)
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