NFL Analysis
12/11/24
14 min read
2024 NFL Week 15 QB Power Rankings: A New No. 1 Emerges
Welcome to Week 15 of the quarterback rankings.
These are not your typical quarterback rankings, which is why you might see some differences from what you’d expect to see in a ranking system that was built off a box score or reputation.
As a reminder, our new grading system combines the skill set rankings (how good a quarterback is in a vacuum) and production (based on a composite of EPA per play and success rate from TruMedia) for the 2024 season.
The hope is that the mix of the skill set rankings and the production rankings will give a more complete picture of what is actually happening on the field during the 2024 season.
The skill set rankings are from me, watching and grading each quarterback in the individual categories. If you feel like I hate your favorite quarterback, those are the rankings you should be looking at and yelling at me for.
The skill score is then combined with the production score to get the full rankings.
The full rankings, including each individual skill set, will be at the bottom of this article. If you liked the old rankings, you can filter by Skill Score. If you're more interested in production, you can filter by that, too.
Each week, we’ll be ranking the league’s 32 starting quarterbacks. That means if a quarterback switch is made, it will be reflected in the rankings. With the production rankings, we’ll start ranking new quarterbacks after their first start or if an official move is made.
With that out of the way, here are the new quarterback rankings heading into Week 12. All stats provided by TruMedia unless noted otherwise.
Week 15 Quarterback Rankings
1. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills 
Skill Score: 9.70 | Production Score: 7.43 | Ranking Score: 8.57
Josh Allen is the new No. 1 after an incredible game against the Rams and is now tied with Lamar Jackson for the league lead in EPA per play on the season.
He made a number of incredible throws in Week 14 as the Bills had no running game outside of Allen’s legs to work with. Allen’s 0.65 EPA per play was the second-highest mark in a loss this season, behind Joe Burrow’s 0.67 in Week 3 against Washington.
2. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
Skill Score: 9.70 | Production Score: 7.38 | Ranking Score: 8.54
Lamar Jackson was on a bye in Week 14.
3. Jared Goff, Detroit Lions
Skill Score: 9.10 | Production Score: 7.76 | Ranking Score: 8.43
There was a goal for the Lions to get the ball out quickly against the Packers. Jared Goff had his lowest average time to throw (2.28 seconds) and only had a 5.5-yard average depth of target.
Goff stays this high on the list because of how well he’s orchestrated this offense. He leads in the production score, and a league-low 22.5 percent of his completions have failed to produce positive EPA.
4. Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins
Skill Score: 9.30 | Production Score: 6.93 | Ranking Score: 8.12
Tua Tagovailoa had the highest success rate in the league in Week 14 at 64.6 percent. The success came in the same way the offense has shifted for much of the 2024 season — Tagovailoa is finding space in the short area and stressing defenses horizontally.
That’s come from the lack of a run game and how often he’s throwing to running backs as a replacement.
5. Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals
Skill Score: 9.52 | Production Score: 6.37 | Ranking Score: 7.96
Joe Burrow had another stellar performance, this time resulting in a win. This season, Burrow’s best development has been his pocket management and play out of structure.
He was pressured on 37 percent of his dropbacks but took just two sacks. Those sacks were both on third-and-long when he was trying to extend the play. The timing and chemistry with Ja’Marr Chase to consistently hit the out routes done against Dallas was special.
6. Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders
Skill Score: 9.20 | Production Score: 6.66 | Ranking Score: 7.93
Jayden Daniels was on a bye in Week 14.
7. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
Skill Score: 9.78 | Production Score: 5.97 | Ranking Score: 7.88
Patrick Mahomes keeps finding ways to do just enough to get the job done at the end of games. Even how that has gone down this season has shifted.
Earlier in the year, Mahomes was throwing a number of interceptions. That’s stopped, as he’s been safer with the ball while managing pressure. The biggest concern for Mahomes is how often he’s been hit lately, with his second game in three weeks of talking 12 hits.
8. Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers
Skill Score: 9.10 | Production Score: 6.32 | Ranking Score: 7.71
After a struggle in the snow, Brock Purdy had his best game of the season and one of the most efficient games of the year at 0.73 EPA per play. This looked the most like a traditional Shanahan-style game while mixing in Purdy’s 2024 aggressiveness.
Purdy used play-action on 35 percent of dropbacks but still pushed the ball down the field with a 9.5-yard aDOT. There were open throws to George Kittle that had plenty of yards after the catch, but there were also tighter window throws to Jauan Jennings, which worked just as well.
9. Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Skill Score: 9.08 | Production Score: 6.33 | Ranking Score: 7.71
This was not Baker Mayfield’s cleanest game of the season. Two interceptions in the second quarter highlighted some of the flaws here. The first came with the Raiders reading a screen — a play that has been so good for the Buccaneers this season.
Then, the second pick came while under pressure, trying to get the ball into the end zone before the half. Outside of those throws and three sacks, Mayfield was clean and still finished with 0.18 EPA per play on the day. The margin for error in this offense is still big enough.
10. Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams
Skill Score: 9.60 | Production Score: 5.78 | Ranking Score: 7.69
Some of Matthew Stafford’s throws were even more impressive on rewatch than they were on the broadcast, and they were pretty impressive on the broadcast.
Stafford was back to 2021 form with a ton of plays out of empty and getting a vertical stretch out of those looks. There was a lot of talk about how much zone the Bills played, but Stafford still went 7-of-10 for 112 yards and a touchdown when Buffalo played man.
11. Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles
Skill Score: 9.08 | Production Score: 6.31 | Ranking Score: 7.69
Jalen Hurts had his lowest success rate of the season, at just 39.4 percent. It was a struggle in the passing game while Hurts held onto the ball for the longest time in a game this season (an average of 3.46 seconds), but his average depth of completion was just 4.6 yards past the line of scrimmage.
There still is a disconnect between what the offense looks like at points and how the end-of-game production turns out. That hasn’t really gotten better throughout the year, but it’s been plenty good to get by to this point.
12. Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers
Skill Score: 9.32 | Production Score: 5.87 | Ranking Score: 7.60
Jordan Love remains the master of the big play. He had a 10.0 average depth of completion and averaged 10.2 yards per attempt against the Lions.
His pocket management and ability to get the ball out and down the field while avoiding defenders might be unmatched at the moment. He’s great at feeling out space, and when there’s an open 1-on-1 like there was on the 59-yard pass to Christian Watson, he’s going to let that go.
13. Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals
Skill Score: 9.38 | Production Score: 5.53 | Ranking Score: 7.46
This was a rough game for Kyler Murray, as Seattle’s defense was all over what Arizona wanted to do on offense. It started with the Ernest Jones interception on a deep dig to Marvin Harrison Jr.
Murray was stuck dumping the ball off short, which limited the type of explosive plays that have boosted the Arizona offense for much of the season.
14. Sam Darnold, Minnesota Vikings
Skill Score: 9.04 | Production Score: 5.00 | Ranking Score: 7.02
Sam Darnold had a wild game with 347 yards and five touchdowns. He benefited from some blown Falcons coverages and some great ball tracking from his receivers, but his willingness to put the ball out where his receivers have a chance to make a play has been a trait that has made the quarterback and scheme mesh so well.
He still takes a lot of sacks, but he’s willing to try to extend plays, which makes something like the second Justin Jefferson touchdown possible.
15. Kirk Cousins, Atlanta Falcons
Skill Score: 9.00 | Production Score: 4.97 | Ranking Score: 6.99
The mistakes have started to pile up for Kirk Cousins. Against Minnesota, he threw two bad interceptions, and that’s coming off his four-interception game against the Chargers. Six picks in two games don’t look great, but it has also overshadowed his full body of work.
Even if we cut off Cousins’ production score to the past four weeks where he’s declined, he’d still slide in around 20th in these rankings. It’s not great, but also not unplayable. He still had some nice throws against the Vikings that kept them in the game until the fourth quarter.
16. Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks
Skill Score: 9.32 | Production Score: 4.20 | Ranking Score: 6.76
Seattle’s offense hasn’t come into a coherent package yet, but there are still plays that stand out. Geno Smith completed 80 percent of his passes against the Cardinals, but his average completion was just three yards beyond the line of scrimmage. But he also didn’t take a sack, continuing his streak of avoiding pressure.
Jaxon Smith-Njibja has turned into a safety net, as he adjusted to a low ball on a dig with Smith under pressure in the second quarter. His earlier touchdown on the corner route highlighted his growth and the connection with the quarterback.
17. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers
Skill Score: 9.60 | Production Score: 3.80 | Ranking Score: 6.70
Justin Herbert did what he could with Ladd McConkey out of the lineup. He had a 10.1-yard aDOT, but his average completion was only 6.6 yards. He hit Josh Palmer on a missile late in the first quarter but just missed him deep early in the second. It’s hard when Palmer and Quintin Johnston are the deep threats on the team. Still, Herbert completed 70 percent of his passes.
One thing that did stick out was how often Herbert stayed in the pocket after finding so much success in previous games playing looser and scrambling more often.
18. Russell Wilson, Pittsburgh Steelers
Skill Score: 9.08 | Production Score: 4.16 | Ranking Score: 6.62
This was one of Russell Wilson’s rougher games with the Steelers. Without George Pickens, he kept to last week’s strategy of relying on the checkdown when needed, but there weren’t many explosive plays to complement them.
Wilson was pressured at his second-highest rate of the season, only behind the first time he played the Browns, despite getting the ball out in 2.37 seconds on average.
19. Derek Carr, New Orleans Saints
Skill Score: 8.86 | Production Score: 4.26 | Ranking Score: 6.56
Derek Carr suffered a fracture in his left hand and a concussion on Sunday. He’s being labeled week-to-week, but the Saints have not made a decision on what the quarterback plan will be for Week 15.
We’ll keep Carr here for now.
20. Drake Maye, New England Patriots
Skill Score: 9.14 | Production Score: 3.64 | Ranking Score: 6.39
Drake Maye was on a bye in Week 14.
21. C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans
Skill Score: 9.58 | Production Score: 3.13 | Ranking Score: 6.36
C.J. Stroud was on a bye in Week 14.
22. Jameis Winston, Cleveland Browns
Skill Score: 8.78 | Production Score: 3.65 | Ranking Score: 6.22
Jameis Winston took three sacks and threw two picks, while 41 percent of his completions failed to produce positive EPA.
He was pressured on 40 percent of his dropbacks and went 5-fo-15 for 50 yards, a touchdown, and an interception under pressure for -0.77 EPA per play.
23. Bo Nix, Denver Broncos
Skill Score: 9.04 | Production Score: 3.38 | Ranking Score: 6.21
Bo Nix was on a bye in Week 14.
24. Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears
Skill Score: 9.16 | Production Score: 3.17 | Ranking Score: 6.17
One of the worries of firing Matt Eberflus and promoting Thomas Brown from offensive coordinator to head coach was that it would interrupt the process that had helped the offense get back on track.
That’s exactly what it looked like on Sunday. The offense was a mess; there was no rhythm, receivers were running routes into the same area, and Caleb Williams was not comfortable and went back to taking a ton of sacks — seven against San Francisco.
25. Aaron Rodgers, New York Jets
Skill Score: 8.86 | Production Score: 3.39 | Ranking Score: 6.13
Aaron Rodgers had his best day as a Jet. He threw for more than 300 yards for the first time since 2021, and his 0.29 EPA per play was sixth for the week.
However, there were still some of the misses and miscommunications that have been common this season, and even with this performance, the Jets only scored 26 points. His poor handling of the Jets’ final drive in regulation helped lead to a Dolphins win.
26. Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts
Skill Score: 9.12 | Production Score: 2.81 | Ranking Score: 5.97
Anthony Richardson was on a bye in Week 14.
27. Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers
Skill Score: 8.86 | Production Score: 2.26 | Ranking Score: 5.56
Bryce Young’s performance would have looked even better if his go-ahead touchdown in the fourth quarter was actually caught. Still, he continued his stretch of looking comfortable in the pocket and making plays outside of it.
If we just went with his production score since his return to the lineup, he’d be about 20th in these rankings, which is a significant improvement from where he was at the start of the year.
28. Aidan O’Connell, Las Vegas Raiders
Skill Score: 8.52 | Production Score: 2.25 | Ranking Score: 5.39
Aidan O’Connell was feared to have suffered a significant foot injury that required an air cast during the game, but it was revealed he got away with just a bone bruise.
His status is still up in the air. If he can’t go, Desmond Ridder would be in line to start against his former team. Please don’t make me watch and grade Desmond Ridder.
29. Mac Jones, Jacksonville Jaguars
Skill Score: 8.62 | Production Score: 2.02 | Ranking Score: 5.32
Mac Jones lived on short passes against the Titans, with a quarter of his throws at or behind the line of scrimmage and 55 percent between 1-10 air yards. In the first half, Jones averaged -0.13 EPA per play but had a 60 percent success rate, with negative plays coming under pressure.
Then, in the second half, he averaged 0.13 EPA per play with a 33 percent success rate, finding a few big plays. His best play was getting out of pressure and finding a wide-open Brian Thomas Jr. down the sideline to set up Jacksonville’s only touchdown. He did not throw a pass after that, with eight minutes remaining in the game.
30. Cooper Rush Dallas Cowboys
Skill Score: 8.56 | Production Score: 1.81 | Ranking Score: 5.19
Cooper Rush can make some good throws, but asking him to keep that pace during the course of a full game with really only CeeDee Lamb as a receiving threat is a tough ask. He was hit seven times and sacked on three of them.
31. Will Levis, Tennessee Titans
Skill Score: 8.60 | Production Score: 1.54 | Ranking Score: 5.07
There might not be a bigger red flag than struggling to produce against this version of the Jacksonville defense.
Will Levis was only pressured on 17.6 percent of his dropbacks, but he was still uncomfortable in the pocket and threw short often.
32. Drew Lock, New York Giants
Skill Score: 8.60 | Production Score: 0.12 | Ranking Score: 4.36
Drew Lock was hit 13 times and held the ball for more than three seconds on average. He’s often been jumpy in the pocket, which has led to a lot of inaccuracy.
There is still some arm talent on display, but playing in a game when he needs to drop back 55 times is going to expose more of what he can’t do than what he can.
Week 15 Full Quarterback Rankings
