NFL Week 13 Betting: Odds, Spreads, Picks and Predictions Bills at Patriots

NFL Week 13 Betting: Odds, Spreads, Picks and Predictions Bills at Patriots
Thursday Night Football: Buffalo Bills (8-3) at New England Patriots (6-5) Opening Spread: Patriots +5.5. Opening Game Total: 44.5. Opening Team Totals: Patriots (19.5), Bills (25). Weather: Outdoors, no current concerns. The Line Report This line opened as Patriots +5.5. This line has moved down to Patriots +3.5. This total opened at 44.5 points. This […]

Read More

Fantasy

Fantasy Football: Week 13 Waiver Wire Adds, Drops and More

The fantasy football season is winding down, so let’s skip the fluff and dive straight into my Week 13 waiver wire report. As always, I’ll include players to add, players to probably not add and players to drop. It’s also geared toward PPR leagues unless otherwise noted. All players included are rostered in fewer than 50% of leagues, per FantasyPros’ rostership data. All stats are credited to TruMedia unless stated otherwise.

And as a reminder, the Cardinals and Panthers are the only two teams on their byes in Week 13.

Quarterbacks

Don’t get too excited about Mike White.

  • White is only rostered in 2.7% of leagues.
  • He scored 24.8 fantasy points against Chicago.
  • He had more than 16 fantasy points at halftime.
  • Against the Bears, he completed 22/28 for 315 passing yards and three touchdowns.
  • While there’s a chance White becomes fantasy relevant, one game against the 23rd-best defense against quarterbacks in fantasy isn’t a big enough sample size.
  • However, the Jets face the Vikings (25th) and the Lions (32nd) in two of the next three weeks.

Don’t expect much from Jared Goff, either.

  • Goff is rostered in 36.7% of leagues.
  • Goff scored 17.6 fantasy points against the Bills on Thanksgiving.
  • That was his best fantasy performance since Week 8 and his second-best performance since Week 4.
  • Buffalo was previously 6th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks.
  • The Lions have a relatively easy upcoming schedule.
  • They face the Jaguars (22nd-fewest fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks) and the Vikings (25th) in the next two weeks.
  • Jameson Williams is reportedly slated to return to the lineup soon.
  • Still, this seems like an outlier.

Jordan Love is an intriguing streaming candidate if Aaron Rodgers misses time.

  • He’s rostered in fewer than 1% of leagues
  • Rodgers left late in the game Sunday night with an oblique injury.
  • Love stepped in and actually looked pretty good.
  • He played 10 snaps and was 6-for-9 for 113 yards, a touchdown and 8.52 fantasy points.
  • The Packers face the Bears in Week 13, who have allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks.
  • Chicago just let Mike White have a field day.
  • There aren’t many viable quarterbacks left on waivers, and Love played well enough against the best defense against fantasy quarterbacks.
  • Keep an eye on him if you need a quarterback this week.

Running Backs

Zonovan Knight, not Ty Johnson, is the Jets running back to own if Michael Carter misses multiple games.

  • Knight is rostered in fewer than 1% of leagues.
  • Carter hurt his ankle in the third quarter and didn’t come back in the game.
  • Knight led the Jets running backs in snaps and carries from then on.
  • Knight saw 14 carries to Johnson’s seven carries.
  • Knight saw three targets to Johnson’s two targets. 
  • Don’t be fooled by Johnson’s 14.8 fantasy points; he scored a 32-yard rushing touchdown to make it a 31-10 lead in the third quarter.
  • Knight only scored *checks notes* 13.3 fantasy points. 
  • Chicago had previously allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to running backs.
  • The Jets face three-straight teams that have been below average against fantasy running backs: Vikings, Bills and Lions.

JaMycal Hasty is a must-add if Travis Etienne misses any time.

  • Hasty is only rostered in 1.4% of leagues.
  • He filled in as Jacksonville’s main back once Travis Etienne hurt his foot in the first quarter.
  • He scored 20.5 fantasy points, which included five catches, 67 receiving yards and a touchdown.
  • Hasty was also tied for second in targets with five.
  • Darrell Henderson could be viable and is worth considering, but we don’t even know if he’s good or what his role will be.
  • The Jaguars have one of the toughest remaining schedules for fantasy running backs.
  • However, the Ravens had previously allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points to running backs.

You don’t need to hold onto Damien Harris anymore.

  • Harris is rostered in 62.5% of leagues.
  • Harris hurt his thigh in New England’s Thanksgiving loss.
  • He had already been dealing with injuries this season.
  • Rhamondre Stevenson is the clear No. 1 running back in New England.
  • Harris has yet to play more than 41% of the team’s snaps since Week 4, even in games he was deemed fully healthy in.
  • Even if Harris does return, his workload looks too insignificant to be of any fantasy value.
  • He’s simply Stevenson’s handcuff.
  • And yet, J.J. Taylor filled in for Harris in games he missed this season.
  • Use that extra roster spot for someone who may actually contribute to your team soon.

You still shouldn’t expect much from any Rams running back.

  • Kyren Williams is rostered in 27.3% of leagues.
  • Cam Akers is rostered in 55.6% of leagues.
  • I wrote that same sentence last week, and Week 12 reinforced my sentiments.
  • Williams led the backfield with 38 snaps and 11 carries.
  • He also ran 21 routes and saw three targets.
  • He only scored nine fantasy points in a negative game-script.
  • The Rams don’t look like they’ll be in many positive game-scripts.
  • Akers scored 3.7 fantasy points on eight carries.
  • Not all opportunities are created equal.
  • That means you can drop Akers if you haven’t yet.
  • Williams may hold some value in PPR leagues, but he should be nowhere near your starting lineups for now.

The Steelers’ backfield isn’t exactly a top priority, even if Najee Harris misses time.

  • Harris exited the game in the second quarter with an abdominal injury.
  • After that? It was a mosh posh of running back usage.
  • Benny Snell and Anthony McFarland split the workload pretty evenly.
  • Prior to Week 12, Snell and McFarland had a combined three snaps played, and McFarland had zero of them.
  • Snell appeared to be Pittsburgh’s preferred short-yardage back, while McFarland looked like the preferred receiving back.
  • Jaylen Warren, Najee Harris’ backup, was out with a hamstring injury.
  • This is just a mess of a fantasy situation to deal with.
  • Yes, Snell could be an RB2 in Week 13, but that would need the bulk of the carries and for Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren to miss the game.
  • Until we know for sure who the main back is, if there is one at all, then each of these players is a dart throw.
  • Pittsburgh plays Atlanta, who have allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to running backs.
  • If you need a running back, you may as well take a shot at Snell, then McFarland, and hope the dominoes fall in their favor.

Wide Receivers

Don’t expect much from the Rams’ wide receivers, either.

  • Van Jefferson is rostered in 18.7% of leagues.
  • Jefferson had 11.9 fantasy points in Week 12.
  • That included one touchdown on 29 yards receiving.
  • He also saw a team-high seven targets… but he only caught three.
  • The Rams’ banged-up receiving room will grant Jefferson fantasy relevancy.
  • Allen Robinson will miss the remainder of the season, leaving Jefferson and Ben Skowronek as the “top” options.
  • Skowronek has 7.3 total fantasy points over the last three weeks, despite seeing 4+ targets in each game.
  • But the Rams’ inefficient passing game will handicap Jefferson’s fantasy relevancy.
  • Whether it’s Bryce Perkins, John Wolford or somehow Matthew Stafford at quarterback, Los Angeles’ weapons will have a tough time receiving the ball.
  • Jefferson is worth a low-priority waiver pickup since the Rams still figure to throw the ball at an above-average rate.

Treylon Burks looks legit.

  • Burks is rostered in 43.9% of leagues.
  • Burks, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine and Robert Woods led the Titans with six targets.
  • But it was Burks who led the wide receivers with 70 receiving yards.
  • He scored 17 fantasy points, which included a flukey fumble recovery for a touchdown.
  • This is the third week in a row Burks has seen six or more targets.
  • The volume isn’t great, though Burks has averaged about 16 yards per catch over the last two weeks.
  • Despite a tough remaining schedule – three of the Titans’ next four opponents rank in the top ten of fewest fantasy points allowed to wide receivers – Burks’ upside and role warrant a roster spot.
  • If he’s still on waivers, scoop him up immediately.

Zay Jones is a risky wide receiver to start, but a good one to add.

  • Jones is rostered in 28% of leagues.
  • Jones balled out in Week 12 with 27.5 fantasy points.
  • That included a whopping 14 targets, 11 catches and 145 receiving yards.
  • That’s his third game in the last five with 10+ targets.
  • He leads Jacksonville in targets over the last two games.
  • Somewhat surprisingly, Jones has seen the 22nd-most targets among wide receivers this season (prior to Monday Night Football).
  • He and Christian Kirk were clearly the Jaguars’ top two wideouts in Week 12 based on usage.
  • Jacksonville’s next two opponents have both allowed plenty of fantasy points to wide receivers: Detroit (fifth-most) and Tennessee (third).
  • Jones shouldn’t be sitting on waivers past Week 13.

Don’t waste too much waiver capital on Richie James yet.

  • He’s rostered in fewer than 1% of leagues.
  • James in Week 10: 3/3, 48 receiving yards, 1 TD, 13.8 points
  • James in Week 11: 5/6, 41 receiving yards, 1 TD, 15.1 points
  • Those nine targets are the most he’s seen in a two-game span since Weeks 2 and 3.
  • James was tied for the most targets in Week 11, though, with no Wan’Dale Robinson.
  • He’s clearly a bit dependent on touchdowns.
  • But three of the Giants’ next four matchups are against teams in the bottom six of fantasy points allowed to wide receivers.
  • We need to see another week of targets from James before we can confidently pick him up and start him.

Isaiah McKenzie and Nelson Agholor are nothing more than deep-league streaming options.

  • McKenzie is only rostered in 28.4% of leagues.
  • Agholor is rostered in fewer than 1% of leagues.
  • If you have to stream your wide receivers…. my condolences.
  • Both players scored and saw 8+ targets.
  • Both players also saw season-high targets.
  • McKenzie’s last touchdown came in Week 4.
  • McKenzie hadn’t seen more than five targets since Week 6.
  • Agholor’s only other touchdown came in Week 2.
  • Agholor hadn’t seen more than four targets since Week 4.
  • McKenzie is more valuable than Agholor since Buffalo throws the ball more, but neither has been consistent enough to warrant a roster spot.
  • Nor does anything suggest their Week 12 production rolls over into Week 13.

Tight Ends

Tyler Conklin may finally be worth a pickup again.

  • Conklin is rostered in 25.2% of leagues.
  • Conklin only scored eight fantasy points on three targets.
  • But only one New York Jet (Garrett Wilson) saw more than three targets in a run-heavy game script.
  • Conklin scored more fantasy points than tight ends like Gerald Everett, Noah Fant, Cole Kmet, George Kittle, Greg Dulcich and Evan Engram.
  • He scored fewer fantasy points than tight ends like Josh Oliver, Jordan Akins, John Bates, MyCole Pruitt and Jake Ferguson.
  • What does that mean? This is a weird position to decipher in fantasy football.
  • Luckily, Conklin faces two of the worst defenses against tight ends in fantasy in the next three weeks: Vikings in Week 13 and Lions in Week 15.
  • Unluckily, Conklin faces the toughest defense against tight ends in fantasy in Week 14: the Bills.

Hunter Henry is nothing more than a weekly dart throw.

  • Henry is rostered in 27.4% of leagues.
  • Henry scored 15.3 fantasy points in Week 11, which included a touchdown.
  • One could argue he should’ve had two touchdowns. 
  • He has two games with double-digit fantasy points.
  • He scored in both games.
  • This is nothing more than an outlier.
  • The Patriots face the Bills in Week 13, who have allowed the fewest fantasy points to tight ends this season.
  • You can consider picking him up if Henry plays well in Week 13.

Foster Moreau is still just a top streaming candidate.

  • Moreau is rostered in 36.8% of leagues.
  • Moreau scored 12.3 fantasy points on seven targets, three catches, 33 receiving yards and a touchdown.
  • Seattle had previously allowed the most fantasy points to tight ends.
  • With Darren Waller out, Moreau has played between 95% to 100% of the Raiders’ snaps each game.
  • Although he’s too touchdown-dependent to trust each week, there are worse streamers than Moreau.
  • Las Vegas’ next two opponents are about average in defending tight ends: Chargers (16th-most fantasy points allowed to tight ends) and Rams (20th-most).
  • I don’t recommend starting him until he becomes a bigger part of the Raiders’ gameplan.

WATCH MORE: Week 12 Fantasy Recap

 

 

Navigating Thanksgiving Games in DFS

Navigating Thanksgiving Games in DFS
Three-game slates should be treated much differently than a full slate of games. Playing certain players against your defense becomes more acceptable, game stacking becomes a lot more significant and the decision on chalk has a lot more weight. The structure of this piece will go game by game with a player pool at the […]

Read More

Scroll to the Top