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Steelers vs. Dolphins DFS Sunday Night Showdown

Miami Dolphins wide receiver Jaylen Waddle (17) looks for running room against the Buffalo Bills during the first half of an NFL game at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Sept. 25, 2022.

The Dolphins have gone three straight games where their starting quarterback has been unable to finish the game, but are getting their guy back this weekend in Tua Tagovailoa. Tyreek Hill hasn’t shown any signs of being slowed without Tua, and Jaylen Waddle was able to get it going last weekend. 

The Steelers are coming off a huge win against the Buccaneers and Kenny Pickett was able to get through concussion protocol to play. Brian Flores is returning to Miami after an offseason of controversy and has a lot of insight into how to attack a defense he built.

Vegas Line: Dolphins  -7

Over Under: 44

Notable Injuries:

Steelers: Doubtful: CB Ahkello Witherspoon Questionable: CB James Pierre

Dolphins: Doubtful: CB Keion Cross Questionable: DT Christian Wilkins, DE Emmanuel Ogbah, CB Kader Kohou, CB Xavien Howard, OT Greg Little, OT Terron Armstead, TE Durham Smythe, WR Jaylen Waddle, QB Skyler Thompson

Data to Know Provided by TruMedia

Steelers Offense vs. Dolphins Defense

  • Kenny Pickett averages 6.2 yards per attempt, 7.3 air yards per attempt, and a 1.2% touchdown pass rate this season.
  • Against the blitz he averages 8.5 yards per attempt, 6.8 air yards per attempt, and a 5.9% touchdown pass rate.
  • The Dolphins are blitzing at the sixth highest rate in the NFL.
  • Against the blitz, George Pickens has been the most productive and targeted player for Pickett
  • Against man coverage, Pickett averages 6.3 yards per attempt, 8.5 air yards per attempt and a 5.9% touchdown pass rate.
  • The Dolphins are one of the few teams playing man coverage at over a 45% rate this season.
  • Against man coverage, Pickett has targeted Pickens, and Diontae Johnson the most amongst everybody on the team.
  • With Pickett on the field the target breakdown is: Johnson 21, Pickens 16, and Chase Claypool 12
  • Pickens is the only player with over 100 receiving yards with Pickett.
  • In the running back room, Najee Harris has still been the lead back with Jaylen Warren mixing in occasionally.
  • Harris is averaging 3.2 yards per carry and five yards per reception.
  • The Dolphins have allowed 3.7 yards per carry this year, and with how often they blitz running backs have been able to catch the ball in space so they average over nine yards per reception.

Dolphins Offense vs. Steelers Defense

  • Tua Tagovailoa averages nine yards per attempt, 8.5 air yards per attempt and a 6.9% pass touchdown rate this year.
  • The Steelers run man at a 36.3% rate this season, and blitz at a 23.4% rate.
  • Against man Tagovailoa averages 9.4 yards per attempt, 7.8 air yards per attempt and a 16% pass touchdown rate.
  • With Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle I expect a lot of zone coverage from the Steelers.
  • Against zone coverage, Tagovailoa averages 9.1 yards per attempt, 8.9 air yards per attempt and a 4.7% pass touchdown rate.
  • With Tagovailoa at quarterback Waddle has more targets than Tyreek Hill by one, and has more yards.
  • Hill and Waddle already have 114 targets combined this season.
  • Both Hill and Waddle average over 2.5 yards per route run this year.
  • Mike Gesicki has benefited from the absence of Durham Smythe, and if Smythe plays it will take away from the playtime of Gesicki.
  • Trent Sherfield has been the number three wide receiver in routes with River Cracraft and Cedrick Wilson running less than 40% of the routes.
  • Raheem Mostert has taken the starting workload in the backfield, but Chase Edmonds is still running routes out of the backfield.
  • The Steelers are giving up 4.0 yards per carry this season.

Overall Thoughts

The Miami Dolphins have a big opportunity to turn the season around in this Sunday Night matchup with the Pittsburgh Steelers. Tagovailoa will have mismatches with Hill and Waddle all game long. I expect a big game from Waddle in a bounce back week from the drop and fumble he had late in their game against the Vikings. When the Dolphins run the ball effectively, I expect it to be chunk plays from Mostert, but they won't be able to get the four yard carries. The key to the slate is which cheap Dolphin finds the end zone, and I will continue chasing Alec Ingold for the way they utilize him.

The Pittsburgh Steelers have a chance for Pickett to make big plays down the field in this game. We have seen the Dolphins blitz and play a lot of man coverage this season, and as a result, this talented trio will have one on one opportunities to make plays. Pickens has flashed a ton of talent, and Pickett has shown trust in him in contested coverage, while Johnson is still the most targeted player in the offense. Claypool for me is the odd man out, but factoring in pricing still has a chance to be a part of my builds. 

Multiplier Pool

  • Tyreek Hill
  • Tua Tagovailoa
  • Jaylen Waddle
  • Raheem Mostert
  • George Pickens


  • Kenny Pickett
  • Diontae Johnson
  • Chase Claypool
  • Pat Freiermuth
  • Jason Sanders
  • Chris Boswell
  • Dolphins DST
  • River Cracraft
  • Cedrick Wilson
  • Alec Ingold

WATCH MORE: Michael Vick's Message to Tua Tagovailoa