Expert Analysis
1/11/24
8 min read
Retaining Matt Eberflus Isn't Business as usual for Chicago Bears
There is still a lot to be figured out in Chicago, but Matt Eberflus will return as head coach for the 2024 season.
The Chicago Bears won’t just be running it back next season. Chicago will make major changes on offense after letting go of offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, quarterbacks coach Andrew Janocko, running backs coach Omar Young, wide receivers coach Tyke Tolbert and assistant tight ends coach Tim Zetts.
Keeping Eberflus puts a spotlight on the 2024 season with bigger questions about what could come in 2025. Much of this centers around what the Bears will do with the first overall pick in the 2024 draft.
Is History Repeating Itself in Chicago?
Retaining a head coach before potentially drafting a quarterback puts the Bears in a potential cycle they’ve repeated during their last two hires. Mitchell Trubisky was drafted second overall in 2017 under John Fox, who was fired after that season. Then came Matt Nagy. In Year 4 of his tenure, the Bears drafted Justin Fields 11th overall, but Nagy was fired after one year with Fields.
It would be easy to lump these scenarios together — it is the same team over the past three coaches — but the 2024 version is not the same.
John Fox was coming off 5-12 and 3-13 seasons when the Bears drafted Trubisky — a decision Fox was not involved in, or aware of, until hours before the selection was made. Nagy had just made the playoffs before Fields was drafted, but it was his second-straight 8-8 record. Nagy, an offensive coach, oversaw an offense ranked 26th in offensive DVOA that season while the Chuck Pagano-coordinated defense ranked eighth.
Chicago went from three wins in Year 1 under Eberflus to seven wins in Year 2. This was done with a turnaround on Eberflus’s side of the ball with heavier involvement from the head coach. Defensive coordinator Alan Williams resigned before Week 3 due to inappropriate activity, and Eberflus took over the defensive play calling. The Bears finished the season eighth in weighted defensive DVOA.
It’s hard to bank on a top defense every year, and results in the season's second half do not always mean progression will continue. But there were changes made to the defense that helped spark this improvement.
On the backend, Chicago relied more on zone coverage. It again had one of the highest rates of Cover-2 and upped its rate of Quarters while the run defense became one of the best in the league.
This season, the Bears ranked eighth in success rate against the run, fifth in the rate of opposing runs stopped for zero or negative yards and fifth in yards allowed before contact per rush.
There’s also been player development on that side of the ball. CB Jaylon Johnson should be an All-Pro, and he is expected to sign an extension this offseason. 2022 second-round pick Kyler Gordon improved in coverage with more time spent in the slot. Another 2022 second-round pick, Jaquan Brisker, is one of the league’s best young, versatile safeties.
Eberflus is not a coach failing to progress his side of the ball, which the previous two coaches were.
Next Offensive Coordinator Hire Is Crucial
What happens on offense looms over the future of this franchise. When Eberflus was hired, his most important decision was who would be the offensive coordinator and what the vision of the offense was for Fields.
While there were flashes under Getsy, there was rarely a cohesive offense. It took too long for the Bears to find a designed quarterback run game with one of the league's most athletic quarterbacks. That run game came and went from the game plan. Too often it seemed like the Bears were trying to fit the quarterback into an offense rather than constructing an offense around the quarterback.
The hire of the next offensive coordinator will top that in importance because it will shape the futures of Eberflus and the Bears.
When it was announced the Bears would retain Eberflus, there was a popular thought that Chicago would have trouble attracting offensive coordinator candidates because of the head coaches' potential lame-duck status. It’s difficult to see how that would be the reality.
Calling Eberflus a lame duck implies he doesn't have a future in Chicago beyond the 2024 season, and that does not appear to be the case. President Kevin Warren and general manager Ryan Poles backed Eberflus for the upcoming season, so there is clear support for the coach in the building.
Could Eberflus be fired if the Bears struggle in 2024? Sure. But there are maybe a handful of coaches where that won’t be a possibility. Even those we would think of in that category aren’t guaranteed — we just saw Pete Caroll and Mike Vrabel let go by their teams. Few are safe in the NFL.
Ron Rivera entered the 2023 season as the lamest of ducks we’ve ever seen in the NFL under a new Washington owner. The Commanders still brought in Eric Bienemy to lead the offense and coach QB Sam Howell.
Justin Fields' Bears Future at Stake
The Bears will have a more attractive opening than Washington’s was this past offseason. A new offensive coordinator, presumably, would get a choice of who he would like to work with at quarterback. Chicago still faces the decision of whether to bring back Fields or use the first overall pick on a quarterback.
A new offensive coordinator with Fields would be his third in four years. While learning three different offenses can be hard, if it’s a better one for his skill set, it will be an improvement for the player and the team.
Keeping Fields would be a commitment on the field and financially. Fields has a 2024 cap hit of $6 million but a decision on his fifth-year option would have to be made this offseason. Per Over The Cap, that figure is projected to be just under $22 million for 2025.
At times this season, it felt like it was inevitable the Bears would move on from Fields. Then, there were those moments toward the end of the season that could have put the brakes on those thoughts. Fields also has the backing of teammates such as DJ Moore.
For all the big plays, Fields is still missing down-to-down consistency. Even after he returned from injury, Fields had a 36.8 percent success rate on dropbacks which ranked 28th among quarterbacks during that span.
No. 1 overall Pick is a Huge Draw
The more likely scenario is the Bears entice an offensive coordinator with the promise of a blank slate at the position using the first overall pick. Caleb Williams (USC) and Drake Maye (North Carolina) have been the projected top two picks of this draft for the past two years — a rare case of multiple top-tier talents holding their draft stock over multiple seasons. The new offensive coordinator could pick his preference.
That alone could attract a wide array of potential candidates. Coaches can imagine being responsible for Williams or Maye and using that to boost their profile into a head coaching job. These are football coaches. They don’t think they will do a bad job. If the offense is good, no firings will happen after 2024.
If things do go poorly, there is always a chance the offensive coordinator gets promoted if he shows promise with the rookie quarterback. This wouldn’t be the first time we’ve seen that scenario play out. There are just as many stories, if not more, coaches could tell themselves about how this goes well than ones that end poorly.
There could also be a case, given how defense-heavy this year’s head coach candidates are, the Bears could be better off trying to find an offensive coordinator this offseason than fighting for one of the top offensive head coaches.
Bears' Cupboard Is Far from Bare
This also isn’t a barren roster in a rebuild. There are young pieces on offense, a borderline All-Pro receiver in Moore, the sixth-most cap space and also the ninth overall pick. The offense could see an overhaul while the defense continues to improve.
It’s fair to be skeptical of the decision to keep the head coach in place while a major decision at quarterback looms. It is dangerously close to where the Bears have positioned themselves before. But this should be different. There’s been intention around Chicago’s moves during the past few seasons. That wasn’t the case previously.
Eberflus isn’t Fox or Nagy. He appears to be involved in the next quarterback decision, and the offensive coaching staff will have a plan for whoever that is — that’s already a step up from the past two coaches.
This might not have been the most exciting move for Chicago, but that doesn’t mean it’s a poor one. These aren’t the same Bears, and it will be on Eberflus and the next offensive staff to prove it.
