NFL Analysis
12/12/23
4 min read
Ranking NFL’s Best, Worst Coaching Decisions From Week 14
Our look at the good and the bad coaching decisions from this past week’s games is informed by metrics such as expected win probability added (xWPA).
4 Best, Worst Decisions of Week 14
Second-worst: Carroll punts away chance at playoffs
The situation: Seahawks’ ball with 14:08 left in the third quarter, down by four, fourth-and-1 at their 40-yard line
The decision: Punt
The result: Punt for a touchback, Seahawks lose by multiple scores
In what was a surprisingly tight game in the first half, Pete Carroll decided to punt the ball away on fourth-and-1. Down by less than a touchdown and close to midfield, the Seattle Seahawks, who came in as underdogs by nearly two touchdowns, still gave the ball back to the San Francisco 49ers instead of trying to put themselves ahead or chip away at the lead. The decision lost the Seahawks 6.3 percentage points of xWPA. The 49ers won by multiple scores, but the chance to keep the game close could have completely changed how the game played out.
Second-best: Steichen chipping away
The situation: Colts ball with 2:00 left in the second quarter, down by 14, fourth-and-1 from the Bengals’ two-yard line
The decision: Go for it
The result: Mo Alie-Cox touchdown
Shane Steichen had the best coaching decision by xWPA a couple of weeks ago, and he had another good one this week against the Cincinnati Bengals. Down multiple scores right before the half, Steichen opted to go for it to try and cut the lead to one possession.
Mo Alie-Cox ends up scoring a touchdown but if he hadn’t, the Bengals would have to start a two-minute drill from their own two-yard line with backup quarterback Jake Browning at the helm.
The decision to go for it gained the Indianapolis Colts 4.5 percentage points of xWPA, and the decision paid off even more. Ronnie Harrison intercepted Jake Browning on the next drive, returning it for a touchdown to tie the game right before halftime.
worst: Shocking punt from Harbaugh
The situation: Ravens’ ball with 8:09 left in the fourth quarter, up by one, fourth-and-1 at their own 37-yard line
The decision: Punt
The result: 48-yard punt, Rams score to take the lead the following drive
In what was one of the most competitive games of the weekend, both teams went back and forth all afternoon in wet conditions. The previous drive for the Baltimore Ravens resulted in a field goal, which gave them the lead. With all the momentum swung their way after a quick three-and-out by the Los Angeles Rams, John Harbaugh elected to punt the ball away on fourth-and-1.
This season, Harbaugh appears less inclined to trust Lamar with the ball in critical situations, opting instead to punt or kick field goals. This decision in particular lost the Ravens 12.6 percentage points of xWPA.
Had the Ravens converted the fourth down, they would have raised their expected winning percentage to 60 percent, where punting brought them down to below 50 percent. The Rams drove down the field after the punt to score a go-ahead touchdown in the fourth quarter.
Best: Bowles taking control
The situation: Buccaneers ball with 2:00 left in the fourth quarter, down by three, fourth-and-1 from the Buccaneers’ 45-yard line
The decision: Go for it
The result: Rachaad White rush for first down, game-winning touchdown scored on same drive
Down only a field goal late in the game, Todd Bowles had to go for the first down with only one timeout remaining at this late stage of the game.
The decision to hand the ball to Rachaad White came as no surprise if you were watching the game, as the entire second half he was able to consistently pick up chunk gains on the ground.
White converted the first down, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers gained a whopping 13.8 percentage points of xWPA because of the decision. Even with a little scare of fumbling on the play, the Buccaneers were able to keep the drive alive and subsequently score the game-winning touchdown with 36 seconds left on the clock.
The article was written by Ryan Rubinstein.
