NFL Analysis
11/21/23
4 min read
Ranking NFL’s Best, Worst Coaching Decisions From Week 11
In this article, we’ll look at the good and bad coaching decisions from this past week’s games. It is informed by metrics such as expected win probability added (xWPA).
4 BEST, WORST DECISIONS OF WEEK 11
Second-worst: Vikings’ first half
The situation: 1:19 left in the second quarter, Vikings up by four, fourth-and-1 from the Broncos 48-yard line
The decision: Punt
The result: Punt for a touchback, Broncos get a field goal before half
The Minnesota Vikings have been historically bad in the final two minutes of the first half in the last two seasons, and decisions like this won’t help.
The Vikings were moving the ball on this drive, stalled slightly and then decided to play defense instead of driving for points, punting into the end zone for a touchback while roughly 10 yards outside of field goal range before giving up a Denver Broncos field goal was a bad way to end the half.
First-half decisions do not receive the same kind of attention as late-fourth quarter decisions, but this was a critical moment. The call had 5.8 percent xWPA on the line, and the Vikings lost by one point.
Second-best: Browns Gamble in Their Territory
The situation: 12:39 left in the third quarter, Browns up by three, fourth-and-1 from the Browns 34-yard line
The decision: Go for the first
The result: Four-yard rush by Kareem Hunt
The Cleveland Browns trusted the data and went against conventional wisdom to go for it from their 34-yard line and got the first down.
While the result of the drive was a punt, the Browns gained 16 extra yards because of this call and pinned the sputtering Pittsburgh Steelers offense deep in their territory. The defense also had extra time to regroup after giving up a two-play touchdown drive to open the half.
The gutsy call had 6.2 percent xWPA at stake pre-snap, and the Browns gained a 9.8 percent win probability based on the result.
Worst: Dolphins' Cautious Approach
The situation: 0:30 left in the third quarter, Dolphins up four, fourth-and-1 from the Raiders 33-yard line
The decision: Attempt a field goal
The result: Made a 51-yard field goal, got the win thanks to two Las Vegas Raiders turnovers in the final four minutes
This is an interesting one that won’t get a second thought because the Miami Dolphins won the game, but it is worth a look.
The Dolphins should have gone for it — according to the win probability model — but with a four-point lead, they decided to attempt a 51-yard field goal, pushing the lead to seven.
Jason Sanders made the field goal, and the Dolphins’ defense came up big to secure the win.
According to the SIS fourth down decision model, this decision was massive, with nine percent xWPA on the line. Given the Dolphins offense’s potency, it was surprising that coach Mike McDaniel did not choose to try and pick up the yard.
Best: Vikings’ Second Half
The situation Part I: 9:25 left in the fourth quarter, Vikings up by two, fourth-and-1 from their 31-yard line
The decision: Fake punt
The result: 31-yard fake punt rush by Ty Chandler
The situation Part II: 6:54 left in the fourth quarter, Vikings up by two, fourth-and-1 from the Broncos 29-yard line
The decision: Go for it
The result: Josh Dobbs sneaks for two yards
This was a two-parter on the same Vikings drive that put them in a great position to win the game.
The first decision was a fake punt that pre-snap was worth three percent xWPA but, based on the 31-yard rush, added a staggering 21.2 percent to their win probability.
The decision also gave the team a jolt when it needed one. The Vikings took more than seven minutes off the clock and ended the drive with a field goal.
The second decision was passing up on a field goal to extend the drive. The decision was worth a whopping 10.1 percent xWPA, and converting it pushed the Vikings’ win probability to 82.1 percent.
While they lost the game, these two decisions massively increased their win probability and put them in a position to put the game away. They were the right calls.
This article was authored by Jeff Dean.
