NFL Analysis
1/3/24
1 min read
Aidan Hutchinson joins Amon-Ra and Equanimeous St. Brown to discuss the Detroit Lions' controversial two-point conversion attempt against the Dallas Cowboys, Dan Campbell, Hutchinson's dream defensive line, Michigan in the National Championship and much more.
Fantasy
1/3/24
5 min read
Hopefully, you won your dynasty championships, or at least most of them. So it’s time to shift focus to one of the most critical times in dynasty fantasy football: rookie draft season.
In the next few weeks, we will provide early rookie rankings and analysis at each position and a cumulative ranking of all positions.
You've come to the right place if you are looking to get a head-start on your league mates.
Age: 22
Recruiting Stars: 5
2023 Passing Stats: 3,633 yards, 68.8 completion percentage, 30 TDs, 5 INTs
When we’ve known a prospect will be the future top pick for a couple of years, prospect fatigue takes place. We’re here to tell you Caleb Williams deserves to be the No. 1 overall pick.
That goes for the NFL draft and your fantasy football rookie drafts.
His prospect profile is so strong he could join Cam Newton, Robert Griffin III, Kyler Murray and Joe Burrow as the only quarterback prospects to achieve League Winner status. Those four combined averaged 22.1 fantasy points per game in their rookie seasons. Don’t let prospect fatigue make you miss out on Williams as the 1.01 in fantasy rookie drafts.
Age: 21 (will be 22 before first season)
Recruiting Stars: 4
2023 Passing Stats: 3,608 yards, 63.3 completion percentage, 24 TDs, 9 INTs
There’s a chance Drake Maye gets overlooked because of how exciting this quarterback class is, but you shouldn’t overlook him at all.
First, he’s a Konami rusher, which has only happened for seven quarterback prospects drafted in the top three (where Maye is projected to go). The seven Konami-level quarterback prospects before him have averaged 19.1 fantasy points per game.
Plus, Maye has never posted less than 9.0 adjusted yards per passing attempt in his eligible seasons. That and his rushing ability show how elite he is.
The fact that he's in the conversation for the No. 1 pick against one of the best quarterback prospects we’ve ever seen should tell you everything you need to know about Maye’s upside.
Age: 23
Recruiting Stars: 4
2023 Passing Stats: 3,812 yards, 72.2 completion percentage, 40 TDs, 4 INTs
Jayden Daniels’ 2023 Heisman season was historic. Assuming he’s a first-round pick, he’ll join Lamar Jackson as the only first-round quarterback to post at least a 45-point-per-game collegiate season.
Daniels would also be the only first-round quarterback with at least a 40 percent rushing yard market share and 12.0 adjusted yards per attempt or higher. Essentially, Daniels posted one of the best collegiate seasons we’ve ever seen from a top pick.
More importantly, he has a historic quarterback rushing profile that will get premium draft capital. From a fantasy football perspective, QB3 might be too low for Daniels.
Age: 20 (will be 21 before first season)
Recruiting Stars: 4
2023 Passing Stats: 2,851 yards, 73.2 completion percentage, 22 TDs, 4 INTs
Of our top six quarterback prospects, J.J. McCarthy is the only one who hasn’t declared or run out of college eligibility.
On top of that, McCarthy is the youngest quarterback to have a draft projection in the top three rounds of this coming draft class. Despite his youth, McCarthy has a solid passing profile. He had 9.1 adjusted yards per attempt in his 19-year-old season and 10.6 adjusted yards per attempt in his 20-year-old season, with the National Championship still awaiting.
If he declares and gets drafted in the first round, he would be one of just 13 quarterbacks to have at least 10.0 adjusted yards per attempt in their 20-year-old season.
McCarthy doesn’t have a perfect prospect profile, but it’s not as if he lacks upside as a pro-level passer.
Age: 23 (will be 24 before first season)
Recruiting Stars: 3
2023 Passing Stats: 4,648 yards, 66.7 completion percentage, 35 TDs, 9 INTs
Michael Penix Jr. was excellent this season. His 9.8 adjusted yards per attempt and 9.2 yards per attempt have helped him on his way to the National Championship game.
However, if he is drafted in the first round — which seems likely — he will join Ryan Tannehill and Kenny Pickett as the only first-round quarterbacks to have played their 23-year-old seasons in college.
Penix Jr. has never rushed for even a five percent rushing yard market share, which puts his floor much lower than you’d want a first-round quarterback prospect to have.
Age: 23 (will be 24 before first season)
Recruiting Stars: 4
2023 Passing Stats: 4,508 yards, 77.4 completion percentage, 45 TDs, 3 INTs
Like Penix Jr., if Bo Nix is drafted in the first round, he would be one of few quarterbacks to get drafted that high despite playing their 23-year-old season in college.
While his passing profile isn’t quite up to the caliber of Penix Jr.'s, Nix’s rushing profile provides a much higher floor. He had a 14.5 percent average rushing yard share across his collegiate career.
That includes a 20-year-old season at Auburn, where he rushed for more than 20 percent of the team’s rushing yards. Nix doesn’t have the best-looking profile, but if he lands in a good situation, there is plenty to like from a fantasy perspective.
Fantasy
1/3/24
9 min read
We’ll keep with the trend of past articles, where we provide a weekly data nugget. Below, we’ll see the leaders in expected points per game with their fantasy points over expectation — among running backs, wide receivers and tight ends. Part of the equation for expected points per game includes a player’s usage and high-value opportunities.
In the chart below, we can see those top players in expected points per game among running backs, wide receivers and tight ends.
When we filter by running backs, we can see the expected point leaders. Because teams often run in goal-to-go (GTG) situations and red zone opportunities, we’ll find many running backs rankly high in high-value touches and expected points.
Later on, we’ll touch on a couple of these inefficient running backs by providing context on their historical data in recent seasons.
For this final in-season article, I wanted to look at the 2023 team and player-level data, plus some historical information, to see if we can glean any takeaways. We won't go as deep as past high-value touch columns but will instead focus on any team or position-level outliers.
The team-level data can inform us to target higher-end offenses or ones that project that way. For instance, the New York Jets often find themselves at the bottom of the red zone and GTG lists. That doesn’t mean we completely fade the team's players, but we understand their touchdown opportunities are limited.
Let's look at the team leaders in high-value touches because most of the better teams should be high on the list. The table below shows the team leaders in red zone drives with conditional formatting to see which teams rank high in pass, rush and scoring rates.
The Baltimore Ravens, San Francisco 49ers and Buffalo Bills are at or near the top in red zone drives while scoring at a high rate. These teams also have higher rush rates in the red zone.
The Dallas Cowboys have a high-powered offense fueled by Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb, but Dallas struggled to score in the red zone. The same goes for the Kansas City Chiefs and Green Bay Packers — they struggled to score in the red area of the field, even though they went there often.
The visual above shows the red zone efficiency leaders in 2023. When we sort the data by red zone efficiency or the team's rate of scoring touchdowns in the red zone, we find the Arizona Cardinals and Washington Commanders as potentially efficient outliers.
These two squads don't have many drives in the red zone, with the Cardinals ranking 27th in red zone drives and the Commanders 20th.
On the flip side, we'll point out that the New England Patriots, Jets, Carolina Panthers and New York Giants are in the bottom four in red zone drives. Unsurprisingly, these teams also need help to score in the red zone.
In the past three seasons (2021-23), the Jets rank 29th with 130 red zone drives, tied with the Houston Texans. The Jets rank ahead of the Panthers (124) and Giants (121). Teams in the middle of the pack had 20 more red zone drives, and the top five teams posted nearly 50 more red zone drives in a three-year span.
The Miami Dolphins, Ravens, Philadelphia Eagles, Cowboys and Chiefs rank in the top five in team-level GTG drives, as seen below. Unsurprisingly, Baltimore and Philadelphia rely on the run game in GTG situations. Gus Edwards kept scoring short-yardage touchdowns, and Jalen Hurts stole scores from D'Andre Swift.
Interestingly, Miami remained relatively balanced in rush and pass rates. However, that may not be as surprising because of the team's potent offense with Raheem Mostert, De'Von Achane, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.
The earlier note about the Cowboys struggling in the red zone aligns with the GTG data; they have the third-worst touchdown rate, in front of the Atlanta Falcons and Denver Broncos.
Let's touch on the Broncos briefly because they might be one of the most dysfunctional offenses in the top 12. During the past few weeks, Denver only had one or one-and-a-half players with flex-worthy status: Courtland Sutton and Javonte Williams.
The graphic above shows the worst teams in GTG drives. Besides the Packers, the rest of the teams make sense — the Patriots, Giants, Jets, Titans and Panthers round out the six worst.
In 2022, Carolina, Seattle and Tennessee tied for the league low of 16 drives in GTG situations. In 2021, the Giants held the last spot with 17 drives. The Jets ranked last in 2020 (14) and 2019 (16).
We will only spend a little bit of time analyzing the past season's data other than discussing some of the leaders and bottom dwellers.
In 2022, the Chiefs, Detroit Lions, Minnesota Vikings, 49ers and Los Angeles Chargers rounded out the top five in red zone drives. Most of these same teams led the league in GTG drives in 2022. The Chiefs, Lions, 49ers, Cowboys, Vikings and Cincinnati Bengals were the year's top six (the latter four were tied at 33 drives).
In 2021, the team leaders in red zone drives were the Bills, Chargers, Packers, Los Angeles Rams and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Interestingly, the Bills and Chargers had more than 70 red zone drives in 2021 and zero in 2022 and 2023. For GTG drives in 2021, the Buccaneers, Eagles, Chiefs, Chargers and Indianapolis Colts rounded out the top five.
Some of those teams atop the leaderboards during the past two seasons also fared well in 2023.
Among the leaders in GTG opportunities (rushes plus targets), it's all running backs besides Hurts. Hurts scored 20 touchdowns in GTG situations and sat in front of Swift in total opportunities, yet Swift only scored on 21.7 percent of his opportunities.
The visual below shows the leaders in GTG opportunities.
For the Ravens, Edwards ate up the short-yardage touchdowns. He scored 12 of his 13 total touchdowns in GTG situations. Meanwhile, Lamar Jackson scored on 10 of 29 chances near the goal line, meaning Edwards scored at a rate two times as high. Besides that, Baltimore leaned on Edwards twice as often in GTG situations, with 26 opportunities (No. 6), compared with Jackson at 10 (No. 42).
Tony Pollard struggled to land in the end zone in GTG situations; he had the 10th-lowest touchdown rate at 11.5 percent. In theory, Pollard is due for touchdown regression, but that hasn't occurred. There's a scenario where Pollard scores a few more GTG touchdowns, and we don't have this conversation about underperformance.
For context, the lowest touchdown rate for rushers with at least 20 carries includes Joe Mixon at 20 percent in 2022, Dalvin Cook at 14.3 percent in 2021 and Ezekiel Elliott at 20.7 percent in 2020.
In 2019, two rushers ranked at the bottom in scoring efficiency: Nick Chubb and Leonard Fournette. Chubb garnered 28 GTG carries and a 14.3 percent touchdown rate. Fournette had 23 rushes and a 12.5 percent rate.
Again, Pollard scored at a historically low rate. Keep that in mind for 2024.
In 2022, Hurts ranked fourth in GTG opportunities (23) with 16 touchdowns (48 percent). The next closest quarterbacks were Joe Burrow and Justin Fields, who tied with 12 opportunities. Travis Kelce ranked 12th with 17 GTG opportunities, scoring 73 percent of them.
Running backs and Hurts dominated the list, making Kelce the lone tight end outlier.
Jamaal Williams led all players in GTG opportunities (34) in 2022, scoring 13 touchdowns. Among the leaders in GTG chances, only Williams, Austin Ekeler, Hurts and Elliott scored 10 or more touchdowns, as seen below.
In 2021, we had a similar trend. Hurts ranked 12th with 20 opportunities and a high touchdown rate at 42.1 percent of the GTG chances.
Also, Ekeler dominated the high-value touches in 2021 with the fourth-most at 24 and 12 touchdowns. Unfortunately, Ekeler's 54 GTG opportunities and 21 touchdowns in the past two seasons (2021-22) turned into 22 opportunities (No. 9) and four scores.
Many leaders in GTG opportunities from Weeks 9-17 made sense. Since Week 9, the running back leaders in points per reception (PPR) per game include Kyren Williams, Christian McCaffrey, Rachaad White, Breece Hall, Isiah Pacheco, Jahmyr Gibbs and Mixon.
In GTG opportunities since Week 9, Mixon (22), McCaffrey (20), Williams (17) and Edwards round out the top four. The most surprising in the top 15 players include Derrick Henry, James Conner and Najee Harris.
The visual below shows the leaders in GTG opportunities in the final half of the season.
Ekeler, Javonte Williams and Bijan Robinson scored at a lower rate than the other GTG leaders. However, that's unsurprising based on their respective offenses. Like the Pollard conversation from earlier, it only takes two or three touchdowns for us to feel differently about these players.
Overall, the late-season player-level data shows us we can still find value in players on weaker offenses if they're garnering high-value touches. We'll hit on the point about Ekeler again, where he goes from über-efficient via touchdowns in 2021 and 2022 to inefficient in 2023.
Though age and potential injury concerns remain, a player's volume and efficiency sometimes don't align. Regression happens, but within the small, season-long samples, it doesn't occur when we need it.
In 2022, some of the late-season (Weeks 9-17) weekly winners included the Lions' Williams, Elliott, Hurts, Ekeler and McCaffrey, all of whom garnered tons of high-value opportunities in GTG situations and and scored touchdowns.
We all remember Swift and Amon-Ra St. Brown not scoring touchdowns due to Williams punching it in close, but we guessed that would not be sustainable, given his profile.
The visual above shows the leaders in GTG opportunities in Weeks 9-17 in 2022.
Keep in mind we’re using an arbitrary threshold of Weeks 9-17 as the latter half of the season when trends and shifts could be happening within or before that frame. However, that period still provides a large enough sample to notice any late-season surges in high-value touches, which typically translates into higher expected points profiles, meaning more fantasy points.
Further down the list, we find Dalvin Cook, Saquon Barkley, Isiah Pacheco, A.J. Dillon and a few others having 10 or more GTG opportunities. However, they didn't score as many touchdowns in Weeks 9-17, causing us to potentially fade these players for the following season (2023).
NFL Analysis
1/3/24
1 min read
Aidan Hutchinson and Amon-Ra St. Brown detail their perspective of the Detroit Lions' controversial penalty on the 2-point conversion that led to a Dallas Cowboys win.
NFL Analysis
1/3/24
1 min read
Aidan Hutchinson joins the St. Brown Brothers to discuss the importance of Michigan reaching the National Championship Game after his alma mater defeated Alabama in the Rose Bowl.
NFL Analysis
1/3/24
1 min read
Bruce Smith discusses with Jade McCarthy how a host of rules changes and fines affect today's pass rushers. The Hall of Famer then lists his top-five pass rushers of all time.
NFL Analysis
1/3/24
1 min read
Hall of Famer Bruce Smith joins Jade McCarthy to talk about how the Buffalo BIlls' season has unfolded. Smith says the emergence of James Cook as a dual threat makes the offense more dangerous heading into Sunday night's battle against the Miami Dolphins for the AFC East title.
NFL Analysis
1/3/24
1 min read
Sunday night's Buffalo Bills-Miami Dolphins game matches two offenses that can score with the best of them. But Hall of Famer Bruce Smith believes the team that shows the most balance will win.
NFL Analysis
1/3/24
19 min read
Week 17 was littered with fantastic quarterback performances.
Joe Flacco kicked the week off with a chaotic, yet effective showing against a staunch New York Jets defense. Dak Prescott was immaculate against the Detroit Lions on Saturday night. Kyler Murray pulled off the upset of the week with a heroic win over the Philadelphia Eagles. A pair of young NFC North quarterbacks, Justin Fields and Jordan Love, both showed out.
None of those guys were quite as electric as Lamar Jackson vs. the Miami Dolphins. Jackson was the story of the week, not only for the performance itself but because the 56-point showing solidified the MVP award as his.
After all the criticisms of not having MVP-caliber stats, Jackson tossed a casual 321 yards and five touchdowns. Jackson produced 1.08 EPA per dropback, the highest mark in a game since, uh, himself against the Cincinnati Bengals in 2019.
So, while there was a lot of good quarterback play to celebrate this week, none were more deserving than the soon-to-be MVP.
Previous Ranking: 1 
After a complete meltdown last week, Patrick Mahomes was stable and efficient against the Bengals. He whipped a few vintage throws down the field, but he was largely a distributor and a dang good one. He largely did it without targeting Travis Kelce, too. Mahomes instead fed Rashee Rice and leaned heavily on Isaih Pacheco, both in the screen game and as a checkdown option.
This was a good "get right" game for the Kansas City Chiefs as the postseason approaches.
Previous Ranking: 2
Lamar Jackson is the 2023 NFL MVP.
Jackson was undeniable on Sunday. Almost every pass felt predestined by some higher power to fall right into his receivers' hands. Jackson made many incredible plays, ranging from twitchy pocket movements to keep himself clean to uncorking bombs down the field to take advantage of blown coverage.
No throw was better than his rocket to Odell Beckham Jr. down the right side. After sliding up in the pocket, Jackson ripped one tight to the sideline to Beckham. The throwing window was the size of a keyhole and required Beckham to make an acrobatic catch, but both quarterback and receiver delivered.
It was a special performance from Jackson and Co. from start to finish.
Previous Ranking: 3
Sunday's win over the Patriots was a "Josh Allen, The Runner" kind of game.
Buffalo's passing game never found a rhythm. The New England Patriots had everything gloved up from start to finish. Sometimes that's just what happens when Bill Belichick has seen your offense enough times and has the right defensive backs for the task.
Allen came through with his legs, though. He was a hammer in the ground game, especially in the red zone. Allen's only two touchdowns of the day were rushed from the 1-yard line. He had 11 carries for 44 yards.
While not Allen's best game statistically, it does nothing to change my opinion on where he ranks among his peers.
Previous Ranking: 4
Play with fire long enough, and you'll get burned. That was the story of Matthew Stafford on Sunday.
For the most part, the New York Giants didn't let Stafford do his typical gunslinging. Stafford played a reserved game and mostly favored the underneath areas. When he did let it loose, the Giants pounced. Stafford threw two picks in attack mode right over the middle of the field.
I'm not all that moved, though. Stafford has largely avoided those interceptions all season. One game of stumbling isn't going to scare me.
Previous Ranking: 5
Dak Prescott was outrageous against the Lions on Saturday night.
Prescott and CeeDee Lamb were utterly unstoppable in the short to intermediate range. Lamb was open every time Prescott needed him, especially on third down. It was as impressive a QB-WR connection as we have seen all season.
And when Prescott needed to uncork it, he did. The off-script 92-yarder to Lamb stands out, but Prescott also nailed an absurd throw to Brandin Cooks early in the fourth quarter to jumpstart a touchdown drive. Prescott finished that same drive with a delightful corner throw to Cooks to take the lead.
Cowboys cooking 👨🍳 @dak | @brandincooks
— NFL (@NFL) December 31, 2023
📺: #DETvsDAL on ESPN/ABC
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/urKeZaIvCL pic.twitter.com/ntdTy8f7Yf
Lamar Jackson probably has the MVP award locked up, but man, Prescott deserves a spot on the podium, at least.
Previous Ranking: 6
Trevor Lawrence didn't end up playing in Week 17. He finally took a game off after weeks of incurring injury after injury. Technically, his status for Week 18 is still up in the air, but it's hard to imagine he will miss the season's final game with the playoffs on the line.
Previous Ranking: 7
I'll be honest. I was mildly worried about C.J. Stroud 's return to action after missing two weeks because of a concussion. That concern was misplaced.
Stroud was his usual brand of awesome against the Tennessee Titans. A final line with one touchdown and 6.7 yards per attempt doesn't sound like much, but Stroud was doing an excellent job getting the ball out and throwing with the top-shelf accuracy he's known for. Watching a player as young as Stroud operate like a sharp veteran is remarkable.
Previous Ranking: 8
Kyler Murray is still an outstanding quarterback. I've been trying to say it since he returned this season. On Sunday, though, Murray's play spoke for itself.
After a slow-ish start, Murray went nuclear. Play after play, Murray was threading throws into tight windows. He pushed the ball outside the numbers and laced it over the middle. In the pocket, he was surgical. Outside of it, he was magical.
This performance was a reminder that Murray is a quarterback who can single-handedly go out and win football games.
Previous Ranking: 9
Philadelphia’s offense has been uneven this year despite its production, but it's hard to blame Jalen Hurts or the Eagles for their catastrophic loss on Sunday.
For most of the game, Hurts did his part. The offense didn't ask much of him as a passer, but he made all the right throws and connected on a few critical downfield shots, including one to Julio Jones (he's an Eagle, remember?).
Hurts faltered at the end, though. With 32 seconds left and an outside chance to win the game, Hurts made two consecutive short throws before a scramble on the third play. Those plays didn’t do nearly enough to move the ball down the field to give the Eagles a real chance at winning.
Granted, that's a low-percentage situation anyway, but it would have been nice to see Hurts do something.
Previous Ranking: 10
The Seattle Seahawks may have suffered an upset loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers, but it was no fault of Geno Smith’s.
Smith played one of his best games of the season. He accessed every level of the field and constantly found ways to keep the offense ahead of the sticks. Things only fell apart on third down, which has been an issue with the Seahawks all year, given their pass protection issues.
The Seahawks need a little help to get into the playoffs, but I'd bank on Smith giving them their best shot against the Cardinals this week.
Previous Ranking: 12 
Jordan Love is so serious. Week after week, Love improves and shows he can win. He throws to all different parts of the field, depending on what the defense gives him.
Against the Minnesota Vikings, that meant attacking the perimeter and taking calculated shots down the field. Love excelled at both. His best throw of the day was an absolute screamer right down the middle to Jayden Reed. It was an Aaron Rodgers-esque flick off his backfoot to split the Vikings' deep defenders.
Jordan Love to Jayden Reed for the seventh time this year!
— NFL (@NFL) January 1, 2024
📺: #GBvsMIN on NBC
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/cOt1Gy93Av pic.twitter.com/edDNVK1f9y
There's still reason to be a little cautious about placing Love in the top, top tier of quarterbacks, but this dude is clearly here to stay.
Previous Ranking: 14
Brock Purdy was back to business as usual against the Washington Commanders. Who would have thought?
There's not much to say, but Purdy's off-script touchdown to Brandon Aiyuk sums up the difference between this week and last.
You can appreciate Brock Purdy’s “point” and Brandon Aiyuk’s re-direction in response to it with this All-22 angle. pic.twitter.com/gVEEcw8DU1
— Steph Sanchez (@Steph49K) January 2, 2024
When Purdy tried to create against the Ravens, they swarmed him behind the line of scrimmage and slammed passing windows closed. The Commanders, by contrast, let Purdy bail to his right and throw back across his body to the middle of the end zone to find Aiyuk.
Previous Ranking: 13
In its entirety, this was neither Jared Goff's best nor his worst game. It was fine.
However, the end of the game was impressive. Goff threw an interception in the middle of the fourth quarter while trailing. For him, that would typically be a mistake that spirals out of control and completely ruins the game right then and there.
But that wasn't the case. In a rare feat of mental toughness, Goff battled right back on the next drive and strung together a handful of throws to get the Lions into the end zone. The drive gave the Lions a chance to win or tie the game, which led to the whole eligible/ineligible debacle on the two-point play that should have won the game for Detroit.
Maybe it's corny or reductive, but Goff earned some points with me for battling back after a catastrophic mistake.
Previous Ranking: 11 
Tua Tagovailoa didn't do anything "new" that scares me in his loss to the Ravens. I'm just growing tired of what he is and his limitations.
Tagovailoa is undeniably accurate over the middle. He's got a quick trigger and knows how to hit receivers in perfect stride. However, Tagovailoa seldom processes anything post-snap and will more often than not throw blindly into the middle of the field because he is so used to those throws being open. Even as the Ravens' coverage squeezed and squeezed those routes, Tagovailoa kept throwing them anyway.
Also, Tagovailoa isn't a consistent thrower outside the numbers. He can throw a go-ball but struggles driving the ball on out-breaking routes. That was evident in this game.
Again, none of that is "new" with Tagovailoa. Those have always been his faults, even while he's produced at an exceptionally high level. It's just deflating to see him without any convincing answers when presented with an elite defense.
Previous Ranking: 15
Justin Fields keeps making the Chicago Bears' offseason more challenging.
Fields rocked on Sunday. On the one hand, you got all the peak plays you expected from him. Fields had an outrageous third-and-8 scramble that he converted and a pinpoint touchdown throw to DJ Moore in the back left corner of the end zone. Only so many people on the planet can make those plays.
But more than that, Fields was consistent. He wasn't making the boneheaded and frantic mistakes he is still too often prone to. That's not to say he was perfect, but he looked like a stable quarterback.
If that's the version of Fields the Bears can always get moving forward, they would be cooking. It's just tough to feel confident about Fields playing that way consistently, given his history.
Previous Ranking: 16
Baker Mayfield's whole deal this year is that he's embraced being a gunslinger. He is grippin' it and rippin' it. Well, the law of gunslinging is that sometimes things don't go your way.
That was the case for Mayfield on Sunday.
While Mayfield did connect on a handful of great throws, he also threw two picks. Both were underthrown. The first was a deep throw about five yards short intended for Trey Palmer, while the other was an out route thrown well behind the receiver. Both throws were the right decision and well-timed, but the ball placement just wasn't there. It happens.
Mayfield will get a chance to redeem himself against the Carolina Panthers on Sunday.
Previous Ranking: 18
The Saints-Buccaneers game's flow was perfect for how Derek Carr wants to play. The Saints' defense was forcing turnovers left and right, which meant all Carr needed to do was play complementary football and slowly work the ball down the field.
Carr did just that. He hardly attacked vertically, but he was surgical in the underneath area, letting the Saints control the ball and put up a modest 23 points. It was not a sexy performance, but it didn't need to be.
Previous Ranking: 19
Nobody is playing quarterback with fewer inhibitions than Joe Flacco. He is just chucking the football. Nothing can or will deter him from doing so. It's an anxiety-inducing play style, but it's hard to argue against the results thus far.
Previous Ranking: 20
Tyrod Taylor enters a rare category of players whose passing chart is so funny that it has to be included in their section. So few quarterbacks have earned that honor this season, but Taylor made it happen with his performance against the Rams.
Taylor threw 41 passes, most of which were within seven yards of the line of scrimmage and between the numbers. That hardly seems possible. To his credit, Taylor was very good at executing in that range. It just wasn't aggressive enough to get the offense over the hump.
The chart is made even funnier by Taylor's 50-plus-yard bomb to Darius Slayton. It was a beautiful throw, truly one of the prettiest deep passes of the entire season. When put together with his other 40 passes, though, it just feels out of place, almost cruelly so.
Previous Ranking: N/A
Will Levis suffered a foot injury early in Sunday's game, prompting veteran Ryan Tannehill back into the lineup.
Tannehill looked exactly like himself, for better and or worse. He was fearless in the pocket to a fault. Tannehill took five sacks, many of which were his fault. That pocket bravery also led to some sweet throws over the middle and down the field, though, which has always been his specialty.
The Titans are out of the playoff hunt, but they at least have a chance to ruin the Jaguars' season in Week 18.
Previous Ranking: 22
The Commanders tried to bench Sam Howell. Nature did not let them. Jacoby Brissett suffered an injury during the week of practice, forcing Howell back into the lineup.
As you can imagine, for a player already spiraling, Howell wasn't very good against the 49ers. Some of the aggression and playmaking returned, which is a nice little silver lining, but the inconsistency and recklessness were as maddening as ever.
Brissett might get the Week 18 start, but it doesn't ultimately matter for an eliminated Washington squad.
Previous Ranking: 23
The wheels are coming off the Jake Browning wagon.
From a process perspective, Browning didn't do anything differently this week than in previous weeks. He was aggressive enough over the middle and willing to occasionally give his guys chances down the field.
Execution was the problem. Browning's arm and accuracy failed him in a way that wasn't present in his early starts.
That said, we should appreciate Browning for what he did this season. The Bengals ultimately missed the playoffs, but his quality play allowed them to hang on longer than they should have.
Previous Ranking: 24
Shane Steichen took a load off of Gardner Minshew's shoulders in Week 17. Rather than ask him to drop back 50 times, Minshew only dropped back about 25 times while the run game took over.
Minshew did his job on limited reps. He was mainly an underneath distributor, but Minshew delivered when Steichen dialed up a shot to Alec Pierce. It was a good, stable performance from a quarterback typically prone to volatility.
Gardner Minshew: "F it, Alec Pierce down there somewhere" pic.twitter.com/dZwgEVg74H
— NFL UK (@NFLUK) December 31, 2023
One more game like that, and the Colts might be in the postseason.
Previous Ranking: 25
After arguably Bryce Young's best performance as a pro a week ago, he fell right back into the depths of hell against the Jaguars.
Young was a disaster. The Jaguars' fierce pass rush got to him constantly, and he had zero answers. Young took six sacks and generally struggled to find anything within the rhythm of the offense.
That's not all his fault, of course. Any quarterback would unravel in those conditions. It is concerning, however, that the first-overall pick continues to show that he has no reliable answer for when the game is thrust upon his shoulders.
Previous Ranking: 26
Within 15 yards, Aidan O'Connell is a perfectly capable NFL quarterback. He's smart, he's decisive, and he's accurate enough. O'Connell can make all the throws that keep an offense on schedule.
However, week after week, O'Connell struggles to make the game-altering throws. Sunday's game against the Colts was another example. O'Connell did well to keep the offense moving but struggled to attack the middle of the field or vertically.
That's fine, given what we should expect O'Connell to be. He's a high-end backup, and that's exactly what he's playing like.
Previous Ranking: 27
Taylor Heinicke was a nightmare against the Bears.
The Falcons are used to turnover-heavy performances from their quarterbacks, but at least Desmond Ridder typically did so while being efficient on his other throws. That was not the case with Heinicke on Sunday. Heinicke barely completed one-third of his throws, and nearly half of his 163 passing yards came on a 75-yard Tyler Allgeier screen touchdown.
Tyler Allegier extends the @AtlantaFalcons lead!
— NFL (@NFL) October 30, 2022
📺: #CARvsATL on FOX
📱: Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/fAXMgIqW9V pic.twitter.com/gLC18BsLUF
Heinicke also got banged up, so he may not start in Week 18, but it's not worth taking him off the list yet.
Previous Ranking: 28
A slew of Bailey Zappe interceptions completely took the Patriots out of a winnable game.
The first two were on the quarterback. Zappe's first interception was a contested throw on a snag route. The tight end was never open, and Zappe forced it, resulting in a tip-drill interception. Unlucky, but also ill-advised. Zappe's second pick was another contested quick throw that never had a shot — Bills CB Rasul Douglas jumped a slant.
In fairness to Zappe, the third pick wasn't his fault. On third-and-11, Zappe clearly wanted to throw some sort of sight adjustment to Jalen Reagor, but Reagor kept running down the field. Zappe threw the ball straight to a Bills defender because of the miscommunication.
Zappe wasn't good, but whatever. It's not like changing quarterbacks would do anything for the Patriots now.
Previous Ranking: N/A
Congratulations to Jarrett Stidham for winning his first game as an NFL starter. That's a cool moment for a player who has been a backup since entering the league.
Funnily enough, the offense wasn't that different than it was with Russell Wilson. So much of the passing offense was screens and quick game, with failed deep shots interspersed throughout. Stidham made the right throws within the 1-10-yard range and kept the ball out of harm's way. That was enough to beat a sleepwalking Chargers squad.
Previous Ranking: 29
There's no way of knowing who will start at quarterback for the Vikings. It probably doesn't matter anyway.
I will just put Nick Mullens here because he gives them the best plays. Can you rely on him to make those plays consistently? No, but at least they're there. Betting on that potential and volatility should be Kevin O'Connell's move this week.
Previous Ranking: 30
I don't understand the Mason Rudolph renaissance any more than you do.
Rudolph just played a clean, efficient game against the Seahawks. Most of his throws were in the short area, either pure quick-game concepts or checkdowns when plays got drawn out. Rudolph even had no issue throwing the ball away when things unraveled instead of forcing nasty throws into coverage.
I don't think Rudolph's current formula is enough to make any noise in the playoffs, but he's been better than I thought he would be through two games.
Previous Ranking: 31
A couple of 50/50 throws to Garrett Wilson were the only thing separating Trevor Siemian from total disaster on Thursday night.
Siemian was mainly a disaster. Even aside from the pick-six to Ronnie Hickman, Siemian struggled to push the ball down the field all night. The entire offense consisted of screens, checkdowns, and shallow crossing routes.
Previous Ranking: 32
Easton Stick cut the sacks out of his game in Week 17. He took just a single sack against the Broncos after a combined 10 sacks in his previous three appearances.
Unfortunately, that didn't solve everything. Stick did his part in the underneath area and threaded a few intermediate throws but connected on nothing down the field, leading to an offense that tried to grind out long drives but couldn't.
NFL Analysis
1/2/24
1 min read
Is home-field advantage a real thing? You better believe it, Fred Warner says. He also reveals which wild card team could cause the most problems for the rest of the NFC playoff field.
Listen to the full episode on Apple Podcasts and Spotify
