Analysis
11/23/22
8 min read
NFL Week 12 Betting: Odds, Spreads, Picks and Predictions Giants vs. Cowboys
New York Giants (7-3) at Dallas Cowboys (7-3)
Opening Spread: Cowboys -9.
Opening Game Total: 44.5.
Opening Team Totals: Cowboys (26.75), Giants (17.75).
Weather: Dome.
The Line Report
- This line opened as Cowboys -9.
- This line has moved to Cowboys -9.5.
- This total opened at 44.5 points.
- This total remains at 44.5 points.
Cowboys Offense vs. Giants Defense
Dallas' offensive line is a top-10 level unit. The Giants have the talent to be a top-10 front, but after being a relative non-factor against the Lions last week, I'm treating them as more of a middle-of-the-pack unit. The Cowboys' offensive line has a slight edge in this contest, though the Giants have a talented front with a high-end interior duo.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Cowboys are 7-3 against the spread this season.
- Dallas is 4-6 on overs this season.
- Cowboys QB Dak Prescott is 51-36-3 against the spread in his career.
- Prescott is 43-47 on overs in his career.
- Cowboys coach Mike McCarthy is 137-105-5 against the spread in his NFL head coaching career.
- McCarthy is 134-111-2 on overs in his NFL head coaching career.
Cowboys Offense
- Dallas is scoring 25.1 points per game, good for seventh in the league.
- The Cowboys are 25th in the league in yards passing per game and eighth in yards rushing.
- Per the Edge, Tony Pollard is suddenly 10th among running backs in yards rushing (701) and 10th in yards receiving (243). Pollard has breached either 100 yards rushing or 100 yards receiving in the last three games.
- Ezekiel Elliott has double-digit carries in all eight of his games this season. Elliott has not breached 100 yards rushing in a game.
- CeeDee Lamb is eighth in the league in receptions (58), 11th in yards receiving (751), fifth in target share (30.7%), and ninth in air yards share (39.9%).
- Michael Gallup has not breached 50 yards receiving in any of his seven games this season. Gallup has six or more targets in three of his last five games.
- When Prescott is active, Dalton Schultz has at least five targets in all five of those games.
- Per TruMedia, Schultz has played 227 snaps as an inline tight end, 29 on the perimeter and 103 in the slot.
Giants Defense
- New York has allowed 20.4 points per game, which is 13th in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Giants have allowed the fifth-most yards rushing per game and the 26th-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- New York has given up the 27th-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- The Giants have allowed the fifth-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
- The Giants have allowed the eighth-most PPR points per game to inline tight ends.
Giants Offense vs. Cowboys Defense
The Giants are a slightly below-average offensive line at full strength. Four of their five starters, including both offensive tackles, have some level of injury uncertainty. The Cowboys' front is a top-five unit at full strength. Still, their front is in a similar position injury-wise as Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence, among others, have some injury uncertainty.
We've already seen these teams play each other this season, and the Cowboys have a potentially game-breaking advantage in the trenches if they go into this contest at full strength or at least with their primary pieces.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Giants are 7-3 against the spread this season.
- New York is 3-7 on overs this season.
- Giants QB Daniel Jones is 26-22 against the spread in his career.
- Jones is 18-28-2 on overs in his career.
- Giants coach Brian Daboll is 7-3 against the spread in his NFL head coaching career.
- Daboll is 3-7 on overs in his NFL head coaching career.
Giants Offense
- New York is scoring 20.5 points per game, which is 21st in the league.
- The Giants are 28th in the league in yards passing per game and fourth in yards rushing.
- Per the Edge, Jones is fifth among quarterbacks with 437 yards rushing.
- Saquon Barkley is second in the league in yards rushing with 953. Barkley is 15th among running backs in yards receiving.
- Darius Slayton has at least 50 yards receiving in five of his last six games, and he has more than 75 in three of those contests.
- With Wan'Dale Robinson out, Slayton is the only Giants wide receiver that would start on any other NFL team.
Cowboys Defense
- Dallas has allowed 16.7 points per game, which is first in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Cowboys have allowed the eighth-most yards rushing per game and the third-fewest yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Dallas has given up the 20th-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- The Cowboys have allowed the 27th-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
This Is What You're Betting On in Giants vs. Cowboys
The Thanksgiving Slate is being released before injuries, and tournament lines are released. On the Cowboys side, Elliot and several Cowboys defenders, including Parsons, have some injury uncertainty in this contest. If Parsons and Lawrence miss this contest, that would change my outlook on this game. Giants rookie WR Robinson is out while several members of the Giants' offensive line and secondary have injury uncertainty.
The Cowboys beat the Giants in East Rutherford, New Jersey, 23-16 back in Week 3. That game was not as close as the score would indicate, and Cooper Rush was the starting quarterback for the Cowboys.
A bet on the Cowboys is a bet on a roster with a talent edge at virtually every position group against the Giants. First, the Cowboys have a potentially game-derailing pass rush advantage against a limited Giants offense. Outside of Barkley breaking a run or a coverage breakdown, it's difficult to see how the Giants will play effective offense against this Dallas defense.
On the other side of the ball, Rush played well against the Giants earlier this season, but Prescott gives the Cowboys' offense a much higher ceiling. Dallas just blew the doors off Minnesota last week, where they played a ceiling game in every phase. Your biggest concern as a Cowboys bettor is Dallas comes in a little flat against a Giants team they already know they can beat.
A bet on the Giants is a bet on a 7-3 team that's much closer to a 4-6 team in terms of what they are capable of. The Giants have won a lot of games by the skin of their teeth this season, and after last week's blowout loss to the Lions at home, it seems like a reality-based second half could be in store.
New York's defense played poorly last week against the Lions, but this team has a talented front, and the defense has been consistently solid all year. If you're a Giants bettor, you are primarily betting on a strong effort from this defense. New York's offense is your concern, though. New York is facing a significant trench disadvantage this week, which could get worse depending on who's active on their offensive line.
The Giants are simply not built to play from behind, and they could be in a lot of trouble against the Cowboys' pass rush in a negative game script. Barkley is a top running back in the league, and Slayton is a solid role player at wide receiver, but that's all the Giants have. If you're betting on New York, you're either betting on an outlier game out of this limited offense or for the Giants' defense to keep this contest within one score.
Per TruMedia, during the last 157 games played on Thursday night, home teams are 83-70-4 ATS during that span. On average, home teams have covered by just shy of one point while outright winning by a margin just shy of six points during this sample. While this isn't a Thursday night game, it is a Thursday game on very short rest. Give the home team a slight baseline edge in your decision-making process on the short week.
Awards Market Ramifications: Micah Parsons is the Defensive Player of the Year favorite.
Winner/Confidence Pool: I'm going to take Dallas in all of my winner pools, and I will be right in line with the consensus on this game in my confidence pool rankings.
Spread Pool: As mentioned on Betting the NFL on Monday, I played a three-team, 10-point teaser this week where Dallas +2 is one of my legs. I will either take Dallas in one of my ATS pools or pass on this contest.
Survivor Pool: Dallas is a very solid option in survivor pools this week, but I wouldn't call them the best. Keep in mind that Dallas hosts the Texans in a few weeks.
Ryan's recent betting record:
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 35-20
Props 2022: 36-21
WATCH MORE: Cam's Corner Week 11
