We’re on to Sunday, where the Divisional Round will continue with two more high-octane matchups. Below you’ll find a summary for both of those contests, with a link to my in-depth betting previews. Happy betting.
Weather: Outdoors, chance of snow
Josh Allen’s Bills against Joe Burrow’s Bengals will be among the most high-interest sporting events over the next decade. The premium quarterbacks and high-end skill position players will be on the marquee, but the Bengals’ offensive line is key to this matchup. Cincinnati will almost certainly be down their right guard and both of their offensive tackles.
One of my longstanding football tenets is you can play effective offense with one unreliable offensive tackle, but it’s hard to do it with two. An example of a worst-case scenario for an elite offense in this position is the Chiefs’ Super Bowl against the Buccaneers. Kansas City went into that contest down their two starting offensive tackles, and the Buccaneers’ pass rush derailed that game, holding the Chiefs to nine points.
We saw Burrow lead Cincinnati to the Super Bowl last year behind a below-average offensive line. But ultimately, playing with that kind of positional disadvantage against Allen’s Bills is a major hurdle to climb. I don’t have any major leans in this game, but I bet on Gabe Davis to exceed 100 yards receiving at +520 odds on FanDuel. I also tailed Josh Larky’s Joe Mixon over 23.5 yards receiving prop on DraftKings.
Score Prediction: Bills 24, Bengals 20
Weather: Outdoors, no concerns
Dallas is a difficult opponent for white-hot San Francisco because Micah Parsons could have a major impact both as a pass rusher and in space. Last season when these two teams squared off in the Wild Card round, Parsons played a lot of off-ball linebacker.
Since the 49ers go out of their way to create yards after the catch for their bevy of premium skill position players, it wouldn’t surprise me if Parsons saw more action in space than as a pass rusher in this matchup. San Francisco couldn’t have hoped for more out of Brock Purdy to this point, but the Cowboys are his toughest obstacle to date, primarily because of Parsons.
On the other side of the ball, I’m not banking on Dak Prescott to have a spike game against the best defense in football. However, if Purdy struggles for the first time this season and Prescott plays a clean game against an elite defense, the Cowboys are a live underdog in this matchup.
Score Prediction: 49ers 24, Cowboys 20
Opening Spread: 49ers -4
Opening Game Total: 46
Opening Team Totals: 49ers (25) Cowboys (21)
Weather: Outdoors, no concerns
49ers: Questionable: WR Jauan Jennings, Edge Samson Ebukam, DT Javon Kinlaw.
Cowboys: Questionable: LT Jason Peters, Edge DeMarcus Lawrence, S Jayron Kearse.
I have the 49ers offensive line tiered as a top-10 group. I have the Cowboys defensive front tiered as a top-five unit. This is a strength vs. strength trench matchup, where neither side has a notable macro advantage.
The Cowboys have a top-five level offensive line. The 49ers have a top-five caliber defensive front. This is a strength vs. strength trench matchup where no side has a distinct advantage.
Including last week’s win against the Seahawks, San Francisco won their last 11 games. Dallas went 6-2 in their last eight regular season games. The Cowboys lost to the 49ers in last year’s Wild Card round 23-17, in Dallas.
The 49ers and the Eagles have the two best rosters in the league. San Francisco has an elite running back, one of the best wide receiver duos in the league, a top-five tight end, a top-10 offensive line, one of the best offensive play callers in the sport, and a defense that allowed the fewest points per game in the NFL this season. If you’re betting on the 49ers, you are building that bet around their premium roster.
San Francisco has scored 30 or more points in six of Purdy’s seven outings this season. A lot of that success should be attributed to the 49ers outstanding roster and Kyle Shanahan’s play calling, but the idea that any quarterback could walk right in and have this level of success is simply not true, because Trey Lance didn’t do it. We shouldn’t be treating Purdy as an elite or even a supremely reliable quarterback for betting purposes, but the reality is this offense hasn’t missed Garoppolo at all since Purdy took over. That said, the Cowboys defense is Purdy’s biggest challenge to date as a professional quarterback.
Your biggest concern as a 49ers bettor is that the Cowboys premium pass rush has a significant impact in this contest while playing very well in space. That cumulatively leads to Purdy having his most uneven start of the season. If that type of outcome is paired with Dak Prescott meeting expectations on offense, that’s the primary path to a 49ers loss in the Divisional Round.
The Cowboys blew the doors off the Buccaneers last week. Dak Prescott was impressive, but the Cowboys defense was the real star of that contest. If you’re betting on the Cowboys in this matchup, you are betting on their dynamic pass rush having a big impact on the white-hot 49ers.
An interesting aspect of this matchup is that the 49ers are loaded with players that can create yards after the catch. When these teams faced each other in the playoffs last season, Micah Parsons saw the majority of his snaps as an off-ball linebacker. Parsons saw 55% of his defensive snaps as an off-ball linebacker last season, so that shift wasn’t unprecedented. However, he’s been used as more of a pure pass rusher this year as he’s seen roughly 80% of his snaps as a defensive lineman. Given the 49ers ability to generate yards after the catch, I will be very curious to see if Parsons sees a big spike in reps as an off-ball linebacker. Since we can reasonably expect Kyle Shanahan’s offense to feature a lot of short passes, Parsons might actually have a bigger impact in space than as a pass rusher in this contest.
The Cowboys offense has considerable ceiling, as we saw last week. Most of their spike games have come against below average defenses, but Dallas breached 30 points against both the Jaguars and Eagles in back-to-back weeks. If you’re betting on Dallas you’re expecting an output right around their team total of 21-points, but a spike game isn’t completely out of the question.
Your biggest concern as a Cowboys bettor is that Purdy’s offense continues to roll, while Dak Prescott’s offense falls short in another big game,
Score Prediction: 49ers 24 Cowboys 20
Ryan’s Recent Betting Record:
TS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 48-32
Props 2022: 60-40
Marvin Lewis and Mike Zimmer discuss Micah Parsons and the impact he can have on a football game for the Cowboys, who have positioned him more on the line recently. Parsons will have his hands full with Tom Brady and the Buccaneers on Monday, but expect Parsons to make his presence felt.
Chase Daniel breaks down his top three pass-rush defenses in the playoffs. Headlining this list are the Philadelphia Eagles.
Micah Parsons was dominant against the New York Giants on Thanksgiving. Cam Jordan breaks down Parsons’ performance and his other favorite sacks of Week 12.
