Analysis
8/21/23
12 min read
NFL Coach of the Year Betting Odds, Tips, Picks Preseason 2023
The NFL Coach of the Year (COY) award may not be what you expect. It is not necessarily won by the “best” or most successful coach in the league. For example, Bill Belichick has only won it three times, and Andy Reid has only won it once.
Instead, COY is an exceeds expectations award. In many cases, it’s an award won by the head coach of the most improved team from the previous season.
>> Explore Other Awards Markets: MVP | OPOY | DPOY
COY Award Contenders
With that in mind, let’s take a look at the COY betting market for each of the NFL’s 32 head coaches:
| Dan Campbell +900 | Sean Payton +1000 | Arthur Smith +1400 |
| Matt Eberflus +1400 | Robert Saleh +1600 | Matt LaFleur +1600 |
| Mike McDaniel +2000 | Doug Pederson +2000 | Mike Tomlin +2500 |
| Dennis Allen +2500 | DeMeco Ryans +2500 | Shane Steichen +2500 |
| Brandon Staley +2500 | Kevin Stefanski +2500 | Pete Carroll +2500 |
| Frank Reich +2500 | Bill Belichick +3000 | Mike Vrabel +3000 |
| Josh McDaniels +3000 | Zac Taylor +3000 | Jonathan Gannon +3000 |
| Sean McVay +3000 | Kyle Shanahan +3000 | John Harbaugh +3000 |
| Kevin O'Connell +3500 | Ron Rivera +3500 | Nick Sirianni +3500 |
| Brian Daboll +4000 | Mike McCarthy +4000 | Sean McDermott +4000 |
| Andy Reid +5000 | Todd Bowles +5000 |
Favorites
Dan Campbell, Lions +900
The Detroit Lions finished 9-8 last season but didn’t make the playoffs. The COY is usually won by coaches of teams that finished below .500 the previous season.
Campbell’s COY path is narrow because the Lions are expected to contend. If Detroit can finish with an 11-6 or better record, Campbell will at least be part of the conversation.
Sean Payton, Broncos +1000
Sean Payton is in such an excellent position he should be the favorite. He’s taking over a Denver Broncos team that went 5-12 last season while Russell Wilson uncharacteristically struggled.
If Wilson turns things around and Denver makes the playoffs, Payton will get most of the credit. Payton will be hard to top in the COY race in that scenario.
Arthur Smith, Falcons +1400
Arthur Smith is a traditional COY contender who I bet on at +2500 odds when this market opened last spring. The Atlanta Falcons were 7-10 last season, which puts them in position to exceed expectations with a playoff berth.
Atlanta significantly improved its roster this offseason and has one of the league’s easiest schedules. Additionally, second-year QB Desmond Ridder is a significant question mark at the most critical positions in sports.
If Ridder plays well, Smith will get a lot of the credit. That puts Smith in a great position to win COY if the Falcons make the playoffs.
Matt Eberflus, Bears +1400
The Chicago Bears finished with the worst record in the league last season. You could argue Chicago improved its roster this offseason more than any other team.
Those conditions make Matt Eberflus a traditional COY contender. If the Bears can make the playoffs in a weak NFC, Eberflus has a realistic path to winning this award.
Robert Saleh, Jets +1600
The New York Jets were 7-10 last season, putting Robert Saleh in position to contend in this race if New York makes the playoffs. However, Aaron Rodgers will get much of the credit if the Jets exceed expectations.
On the positive side, similar to Brian Daboll last season, Saleh is in the New York market. If the Jets succeed, they will be in the national spotlight more often than most teams. More eyeballs usually mean more wagers in betting markets.
Saleh isn’t a COY cross-off, but he’ll need other traditional contenders to fail to win.
Matt LaFleur, Packers +1600
Matt LaFleur is in an interesting position in the COY race as Green Bay transitions from Rodgers to Jordan Love. If Love plays well while Green Bay makes the playoffs, LaFleur will be tough to beat.
Contenders
Mike McDaniel, Dolphins +2000
The Miami Dolphins made the playoffs last season, which means Mike McDaniel’s COY path needs to mimic Nick Sirianni’s from last year. Sirianni was a contender all season, as his Eagles finished as the No. 1 seed in the NFC.
Despite all that, Sirianni still fell short. Given McDaniel’s narrow path to COY contention, he’s overpriced in this market.
Doug Pederson, Jaguars +2000
Doug Pederson took over the worst team in football after the 2021 season and then won the AFC South in his first year as the Jacksonville Jaguars’ head coach. If Pederson didn’t win the COY last year, why would he win it this season?
If Pederson’s Jaguars finish as the top seed in the AFC, he’ll at least be part of the conversation. That said, Pederson’s path is narrow.
Mike Tomlin, Steelers +2500
If you want to point out flaws in the COY race, Mike Tomlin is exhibit A. It’s ridiculous he’s never won this award given he took the Pittsburgh Steelers job in 2007 and has never had a losing season.
Pittsburgh didn’t make the playoffs last season but finished with a winning record of 9-8. The Steelers are more dangerous entering this season, but it’s hard to see them exceeding what they did last year for Tomlin to win this award.
Dennis Allen, Saints +2500
Dennis Allen is one of the most interesting COY candidates. The New Orleans Saints finished 7-10 last season, they have the easiest schedule and they play in the NFL's weakest division. We expect the Saints to have an inflated record due to their advantageous schedule, which is good for Allen’s COY prospects.
The primary area of concern for Allen’s COY potential is that Derek Carr is the Saints’ new quarterback. If Carr has a strong year, that could have a negative impact Allen in this race because Carr could be considered the main reason for New Orleans’ success.
Still, Allen is a traditional COY contender and one of the three options (the other two being Smith and Eberflus) who I have bet on entering the season.
DeMeco Ryans, Texans +2500
The Houston Texans were 3-12-1 last season, and DeMeco Ryans is a new head coach entering the year with a rookie quarterback. If Houston makes the playoffs, there’s a strong chance Ryans is the COY.
That said, the AFC is loaded with premium quarterbacks supported by quality rosters. DraftKings Sportsbook has Houston listed as +475 to make the playoffs, which is the second-longest option behind only Arizona. Ryans has an uphill battle to contention.
Shane Steichen, Colts +2500
Shane Steichen is in the same position as Ryans in this race. The Indianapolis Colts were 4-12-1 last year, and they enter this season with a rookie quarterback. The Colts are the fifth-longest option to make the playoffs on DraftKings Sportsbook at +350 odds.
Brandon Staley, Chargers +2500
The Los Angeles Chargers made the playoffs last season with a 10-7 record. Los Angeles has a premium quarterback and a high-end roster and is expected to be successful.
Brandon Staley has little to no chance in this race. You could argue Staley has a better chance of being the first coach fired than he does of winning the COY.
Kevin Stefanski, Browns +2500
If the Cleveland Browns make the playoffs this season, it’s likely because Deshaun Watson returns to form. Cleveland was 7-10 last season, so a playoff berth would put Kevin Stefanski in COY contention.
However, because Watson struggled when he returned last season, Stefanski wouldn’t get much credit if Watson bounced back. Stefanski’s situation isn’t parallel to Payton’s in Denver.
Pete Carroll, Seahawks +2500
Pete Carroll didn’t even receive a vote in last year’s COY race, which is shocking considering what the Seattle Seahawks did last season. For Carroll to win COY, his path would look similar to Sirianni’s from last season. It’s hard to see Carroll winning COY this season.
Frank Reich, Panthers +2500
Frank Reich is taking over a new team that finished 7-10 last season. If the Carolina Panthers win the NFC South or otherwise make the playoffs, Reich will be entrenched in the COY mix.
Carolina opens the year with a tough six-game stretch that softens after its Week 7 bye. If you’re bullish on Carolina, you should consider waiting to bet on Reich until after the Panthers’ bye week.
Mid-Range Long Shots
Bill Belichick, Patriots +3000
The New England Patriots were 8-9 last season, meaning a playoff berth this year would put Bill Belichick in the COY conversation.
The problem is the AFC is loaded with competitive teams, and the Patriots have an absolutely brutal schedule. Their opening four games are just about as tough as they could be.
Mike Vrabel, Titans +3000
Mike Vrabel was the 2021 COY, and he’s widely regarded as one of the most prominent difference-making strategists in the league. The Tennessee Titans missed the playoffs last year with a 7-10 record.
If the Titans bounce back and make the playoffs, Vrabel will be in the COY conversation.
Josh McDaniels, Raiders +3000
The Las Vegas Raiders were 6-11 last year, so they can blow expectations out of the water with a playoff berth. However, they have a brutal schedule and didn’t significantly improve their roster. It’s difficult to see the Raiders as a playoff team this year.
Zac Taylor, Bengals +3000
If Zac Taylor didn’t win the COY in 2021, it’s hard to see how he’d win it this year. He’d need to lead the Cincinnati Bengals to the playoffs without Joe Burrow or finish with an undefeated season.
Both of those outcomes are extremely unlikely.
Jonathan Gannon, Cardinals +3000
The Arizona Cardinals finished 4-13 last season, so they have a lot of margin to exceed expectations this season. However, Arizona is the longest bet to make the playoffs at +1100 odds.
Considering the Cardinals’ quarterback situation with Kyler Murray sidelined, it’s hard to see them making the playoffs. Jonathan Gannon could be an attractive COY option next season.
Sean McVay, Rams +3000
Sean McVay is another interesting COY option at long odds, as the Los Angeles Rams finished with a 5-12 record last season.
Los Angeles has an elite core with Sean McVay, Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp and Aaron Donald. The rest of the roster is a significant concern. It’s why McVay isn’t an auto bet at these long odds.
Kyle Shannahan, 49ers +3000
Kyle Shannahan’s offense improved when the last pick in last year’s draft, Brock Purdy, took over at quarterback down the stretch. If Shannahan didn’t win COY last year, it’s hard to imagine what he’d need to do this year.
John Harbaugh, Ravens +3000
The Baltimore Ravens were a 10-7 playoff team last year despite Lamar Jackson missing five games. John Harbaugh has little to no chance in this race this season.
Kevin O’Connell, Vikings +3500
In Kevin O’Connell’s first year as the Minnesota Vikings’ head coach, the Vikings went 13-4 after finishing below .500 the previous year. O’Connell has no realistic path in this year’s COY race.
Ron Rivera, Commanders +3500
Ron Rivera is a two-time COY winner who has surged in this race in the last two seasons. If the Washington Commanders can make the playoffs with Sam Howell at quarterback this year, Rivera will be in the COY conversation.
In fact, if you’re a Howell believer, betting on Rivera at +3500 odds is worth considering. To be clear, I am not taking that bet myself.
Nick Sirianni, Eagles +3500
Sirianni was a major factor in last year’s COY race to the point he could have won if Jalen Hurts hadn’t missed two games. That said, the Eagles were the top seed in the NFC last season and played in the Super Bowl.
Outside of an undefeated season against a tougher schedule, Sirianni has no actual path in this year’s race.
Long Shots
Brian Daboll, Giants +4000
Brian Daboll took home the award last season. You’d have to go back to Joe Gibbs in 1983 to find a back-to-back COY winner. The New York Giants went 9-7-1 last season and are widely considered a fringe playoff contender entering this year.
Daboll will be part of the COY conversation if the Giants finish the season as the NFC’s No. 1 seed. Outside of that unlikely outcome, he has no real path.
Mike McCarthy, Cowboys +4000
The Dallas Cowboys have gone 12-5 in the last two seasons, giving Mike McCarthy no real path to exceeding expectations this year.
Sean McDermott, Bills +4000
The Buffalo Bills have become a perennial contender under Sean McDermott, so it’s a borderline tragedy he’s never won this award. That said, McDermott — much like the other coaches who made the playoffs last year — has no clear path to winning COY this season.
Andy Reid, Chiefs +5000
If you’re looking for flaws in the COY race, Reid is exhibit B. Reid is one of, if not the best offensive coach in NFL history. He’s been wildly successful in both Philadelphia and Kansas City.
Yet he’s only won the COY once in 2002. Entering this season, the Kansas City Chiefs are defending Super Bowl champions. Outside of an undefeated season, Reid’s only paths to COY contention involve overcoming injuries, similar to Vrabel’s win two years ago.
Todd Bowles, Buccaneers +5000
The idea that Todd Bowles is a much better bet than Reid in the COY market is exhibit C if you’re looking for flaws in this race. Bowles’ situation is similar to the one in Green Bay, as Tampa is making the transition from Tom Brady to some combination of Baker Mayfield and Kyle Trask.
If you’re bullish on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers — I’m not — Bowles will be in the COY mix if the Buccaneers make the playoffs.
COY Predictions
Ryan’s COY Pick: Arthur Smith
Ryan’s Favorite Long Shot: Dennis Allen
Ryan has covered NFL awards betting markets since 2020 for Establish the Run. Follow Ryan @RyanReynoldsNFL on Twitter, Instagram or Facebook.
