NFL Analysis
1/2/24
13 min read
Making the Case For, Against NFL's Top Coach of the Year Candidates
Outside of MVP, there is no award considered a foregone conclusion more than Coach of the Year. Per DraftKings odds, the Cleveland Browns' Kevin Stefanski is a -1000 favorite.
This shouldn’t be much of a surprise, given how the award has been treated in the past. Often, the coach who has exceeded expectations or overcome some obstacles is the favorite.
That checks out with the current odds, but with many good coaching performances this season, the race should not be so definitive yet. With just one week remaining in the regular season, let's take a look at all of the deserving candidates, along with the cases for and against for each of them for this honor.
The Favorite
Kevin Stefanski, Cleveland Browns
The Case For
The Browns have won 11 games and clinched a playoff berth despite cycling through four different starting quarterbacks. Cleveland also lost Nick Chubb for the year in Week 2 and has spent most of the season without its starting tackles — Jack Conklin went out in Week 1, and Jedrick Wills has been on injured reserve since Week 10.
Six different offensive line combinations have played at least 60 snaps for the Browns this season. In the search for overcoming adversity, this is it. Cleveland will be the first team to make the playoffs while starting four quarterbacks during the regular season.
The Browns have also defied in-season expectations by going 10-5-1 against the spread, the third-best figure in the league through Week 17. All of this was done against the third-toughest schedule by DVOA.
Stefanski has overseen a team that could have stumbled at any point. The Browns haven't just stayed competitive; they’ve thrived as a top-10 team by DVOA and could be favored on the road against the winner of the AFC South.
The Case Against
While playing four quarterbacks is unprecedented, it’s not as if all four were playing well. Three were bad, and the fourth has been fine.
Fine has set a higher ceiling for the team overall, which is a credit to all Stefanski’s offense needs to look good, but the unit has not helped the team much. Even Joe Flacco has negative EPA on the season.
The Browns are 28th in EPA per play and 27th in success rate, per TruMedia. Cleveland is also 6-2 in one-score games.
We shouldn’t discount those wins. Still, in those games, the Browns have a -2 turnover differential. Only the New York Jets have produced more negative EPA on offense in one-score games.
The driving force of Cleveland’s wins its the defense, which could be seen as a bigger boost to the Assistant Coach of the Year case for Jim Schwartz than to Stefanski's Coach of the Year case.
The Browns are first in EPA per play and in success rate on defense as Schwartz has helped turn around a unit that was 22nd and 17th last season in those categories, respectively. If the defense is even a little worse, getting to the fourth quarterback might not have mattered for the Browns.
Stefanski does get credit for hiring Schwartz, but that shouldn’t be the lead point in his candidacy.
The First Years
Shane Steichen, Indianapolis Colts
Demeco Ryans, Houston Texans
The Cases For
In past seasons, Shane Steichen and DeMeco Ryans would be having the kinds of seasons that would appeal to voters. As it stands now, Steichen and Ryans are tied for the second-best odds at DraftKings, albeit at +1100.
These are the first-year head coaches who have immediately made their team look better than the previous season. Brian Daboll won the award as this archetype last season.
First-year coaches who got their team to the playoffs have won Coach of the Year in three of the past six seasons.
One of these teams should make the playoffs (as long as they don’t tie when they play Sunday). With a Jacksonville loss to Tennessee, the winner of Houston Texans–Indianapolis Colts would win the AFC South.
Steichen, off a great run with the Philadelphia Eagles (whose 2023 offense could boost his case), joined the Colts and immediately set up an offense around the strengths of Anthony Richardson. When Richardson went down, Steichen adjusted the offense to Gardner Minshew.
At times, the Texans looked like they were ready to jump into the second tier of AFC contenders under Ryans. Houston didn’t carry that level through the entire season, but there were exceptional individual performances.
C.J. Stroud is the Offensive Rookie of the Year front-runner, and Will Anderson should be the same for Defensive Rookie of the Year. Players such as Derek Stingley, Jonathan Greenard and Blake Cashman have all flashed on defense with Ryans.
The Cases Against
Even with a potential playoff berth, the Colts and Texans have settled around above average. Indianapolis is 14th in EPA per play on offense and has a negative point differential, while the Ryans-led Houston defense is 16th in EPA per play, according to TruMedia.
If their rookie quarterbacks had stayed healthy the entire season, they could have been bigger boosts to Steichen's and Ryans' résumé. Steichen looked like he was figuring out the correct way to develop Richardson while still winning games.
For Ryans, the stretch of Stroud’s letdown and injury against the Jets, which led to two games of Case Keenum, slowed the Texans' momentum.
It’s fair to conclude both franchises should feel great about the hires, but these are coaching performances propping up the future more than they are Coach of the Year–winning jobs this season.
That’s not a bad thing.
The CEOs
Dan Campbell, Detroit Lions
John Harbaugh, Baltimore Ravens
The CaseS For
Dan Campbell and John Harbaugh have overseen two of the best teams in the league. The Detroit Lions won the NFC North for the first time since 1993 and have made the playoffs for the first time since 2016.
The Baltimore Ravens are the No. 1 seed in the AFC, lead the league in point differential and are first overall in DVOA as the third-best team by the metric since 1981. They also have the heavy favorite for league MVP.
Through Week 17, the Lions and Ravens are tied for the best record against the spread at 11-5. Both coaches have full control of the team's operation on the field.
With Campbell, that’s shown in his aggressiveness and playing style — the Lions are built in Campbell’s image as a tough and physical team. Detroit came into the season with high expectations after a second-half season surge in 2022. The Lions have matched those expectations, if not exceeded them.
Campbell’s influence is also seen on fourth downs. Only the Carolina Panthers have gone for it on fourth down more than the Lions this season, and many of Carolina’s attempts have come while trailing. Detroit is also second in fourth-down attempts while the game is within one score.
Harbaugh was once the standard for fourth-down aggressiveness, but Baltimore is second-to-last in fourth-down tries this season — mostly because the Ravens haven’t needed to do so.
Only the San Francisco 49ers and Miami Dolphins have more first downs picked up on first and second down. The Ravens’ average lead on an offensive play this season is 6.25 points, per FTN. The next-highest team is at 4.99.
Harbaugh, a former special teams coordinator, has also helped a special teams unit that is second in DVOA this season.
The CaseS Against
Campbell’s chances likely disappeared with the Lions' loss to Dallas — even though the loss was on a play that should have worked and was the epitome of the Campbell era so far. He could have been the favorite for Coach of the Year if Detroit won and still had a chance at the No. 1 seed.
His odds also took a bit of a hit when the Ravens beat the Lions 38-6 in Week 7, though his odds rebounded enough for him to be the odds leader heading into Week 16.
With Campbell and Harbaugh, we get down the slippery slope of credit deserved for assistants.
The Lions are propelled by Ben Johnson’s offense. Does Campbell not get credit for promoting him to offensive coordinator because that happened last season? Does Campbell get credit for getting Johnson to stick around in 2023 while the coordinator was one of the hottest head coaching candidates? Do we just give Johnson all the credit for the offense?
We can go even deeper for Harbaugh, who gets these questions on both sides of the ball. Mike Macdonald has coordinated a defense that is second in EPA per play and first by DVOA.
Is Harbaugh dinged because that hire happened in 2022? If that’s the case, do we give Harbaugh credit for making a change at offensive coordinator — parting ways with Greg Roman and hiring Todd Monken — a move that is certain to reward Lamar Jackson with his second MVP award?
In the past 25 years, there have only been four player-coach pairings for league MVP and Coach of the Year: Kurt Warner and Dick Vermeil in 1999, Tom Brady and Bill Belichick in 2007 and 2010 and Jackson and Harbaugh in 2019.
The Offensive Gurus
Kyle Shanahan, San Francisco 49ers
Sean McVay, Los Angeles Rams
Mike McDaniel, Miami Dolphins
The Cases For
If you wanted to use a version of the popular Hall of Fame “can you tell the story of the league without him” criteria, it would be difficult to not lead with one of these three coaches.
Kyle Shanahan has led one of the best offenses we’ve seen in the modern era with a DVOA through 16 games, just behind the 2010 and 2017 Patriots. The San Francisco 49ers lead the league in EPA per play and success rate by a wide margin. The gap between the 49ers and the No. 2 team (the Ravens) in offensive DVOA is bigger than the gap between the Ravens and the No. 9 team (the Green Bay Packers).
San Francisco is the first team to have a running back, tight end and two wide receivers go over 1,000 yards from scrimmage. We spent 17 weeks debating if Brock Purdy was the league MVP. What more of a coaching impact would you like?
If we want to talk about assistants, Shanahan has put together a stellar season while his offensive staff has been poached over the past few offseasons, and in 2023, he had to replace Ryans as the team's defensive coordinator.
Through all of this, San Francisco is the top seed in the NFC and is still the betting favorite to win the Super Bowl.
Mike McDaniel, a former Shanahan assistant, has evolved the Miami Dolphins offense that rocked the NFL last season. He has added more unique motions, continued to get the ball out quickly and reshaped a running game that has been the league’s best. The Dolphins have a counter to any blueprint that defenses could put out in the season’s final stretch.
Miami is third in EPA per play on offense and second in yards per play. Tyreek Hill leads the league in receiving yards, but the offense has functioned normally when he has not been on the field — a credit to the team's coaching and the scheme. Tua Tagovailoa leads the league in passing yards through Week 17.
The Dolphins have a chance to win the AFC East for the first time since 2008 with a win Sunday.
If there is a case to be made for exceeding preseason expectations, it’s hard to top what Sean McVay has done with the Los Angeles Rams. The Rams' preseason win total was 6.5, tied for the second-lowest among all teams. Part of that was because of a disastrous 2022 season where almost everything went wrong and that had McVay wondering if he still wanted to coach.
Before the final week of the 2023 season, the Rams have clinched a playoff spot with nine wins.
McVay has done this in a different way than he did with his 2017 squad or even the 2021 team that won the Super Bowl. The Rams are using more inside runs on duo, rather than the outside zone scheme McVay helped popularize. Each week, there are new wrinkles bringing the offense forward.
The run game behind Kyren Williams is seventh in EPA per play. Meanwhile, Matthew Stafford is third in EPA per play among quarterbacks, and WR Puka Nacua is likely to break the rookie record for receiving yards in a season.
The Cases Against
Let’s start with McDaniel. His realistic chances faded with Week 17's loss to Baltimore. Not only did the Dolphins lose a chance at the AFC’s top seed, they lost convincingly — although it was to one of the best offensive performances of the season from Jackson.
One of McVay's obstacles is that the 49ers are in the same division as the Rams. We’ve also seen this level of play before from the McVay and Stafford combination — despite 2023's low preseason expectations — even though it could be argued both are better right now than they were in 2021.
Since 2000, only four coaches have won Coach of the Year with 10 or fewer wins, excluding Bruce Arians in 2012 who coached 12 games filling in for Chuck Pagano.
Shanahan's case against is tough to make outside of the precedent set for the award. The depth of San Francisco's play-makers will be used against him. It’s assumed many coaches would have a good offense with Christian McCaffrey, Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel and George Kittle.
The 49ers were also supposed to be here, and that works against Shanahan's perception. They were in the NFC Championship Game last season and had one of the highest projected win totals for 2023.
However, the 12-win 49ers have exceeded their preseason win total of 10.5 as much as the 11-win Browns have exceeded theirs of 9.5.
My Hypothetical Ballot
I do not have a Coach of the Year ballot, but this would be my top three:
1. Shanahan
2. McVay
3. Harbaugh
The real case against Shanahan is mostly that we don’t end up giving this award to coaches who sail through the season. There’s something in adversity that produces bonus points, and Shanahan doesn’t fit.
He would likely have a better case if he had merely a good offense while forced to play Sam Darnold than with a near-historic one with Purdy playing all season. Although that ignores the fact we didn’t know how healthy Purdy would be this season.
What Shanahan has done with the 49ers' offense — fitting each piece perfectly to have the matchup advantage on every play — should be rewarded.
