NFL Analysis

12/16/23

6 min read

How Penalty Weight Affects NFL Games, Teams

By Sports Info Solutions

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We’re coming off a week with a lot of conversation about the impact of penalties, thanks to the ending of the game between the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills. Crucial penalty calls draw a lot of attention to that aspect of the game, but we don’t often contextualize that value.

Let’s take some steps to correct that by looking at penalty weight. 

Following Week 14, the Las Vegas Raiders are the least penalized team, while the Seattle Seahawks are the most. The range is probably larger than expected because the Seahawks have had 49 more penalties accepted against them than the Raiders have.

Break down of Penalty Data

Least Penalties Committed (By Accepted)

Most Penalties Committed (By Accepted)

While these are certainly interesting numbers to scan, there really is not a strong pattern. Both groups have teams currently in and out of the playoff picture, varied offensive ranks and varied defensive ranks. 

One of the ways to look deeper into penalties is by looking at PenaltyEPA. This is the amount of EPA lost or gained by the penalties, giving more weight to costly penalties. There is some shuffling among the best and worst teams in that metric.

Least EPA Lost

Most EPA Lost

Despite committing the seventh-fewest penalties, the Miami Dolphins have actually lost the third-least EPA off of their penalties (nearly the least), suggesting those penalties were not as significant. 

The Seahawks still lead his category by a good margin, however. There is not a clear pattern, but committing penalties is only one side of the coin. So what about the opponents faced?

Least EPA Gained from Opponent Penalties

Most EPA Gained from Opponent Penalties

The Kansas City Chiefs have gained the third-fewest EPA by opponent penalties on the season, which might surprise some people. The Denver Broncos have gained about 81 points worth of value from the penalties their opponents commit, which is more than six points a game.

Now that we have both sides, let’s put them together and see the Net Penalty EPA, the difference between EPA lost by a team compared with their opponents.

Worst Penalty EPA Difference

Best Penalty EPA Difference

The top teams in this metric are starting to form a similar identity: fringe playoff teams who have questions. While each team might not have the offensive or defensive firepower to make it a clear contender, the fact that the team is “winning” the penalty battle decisively might push it to appear as if it is slightly overperforming. The Minnesota Vikings led the metric in 2022 and won 11 one-score games, so penalties could have been a big reason for their success.

The bottom teams in this metric might not be quite as closely linked, but with two bottom-of-the-league teams in the group, there could be some explanation as to why the Buffalo Bills have a below-expected record. The fifth-highest scoring offense and the sixth-best scoring defense look strong on paper, but one of the hidden weaknesses of the team (not the only one) is its penalty discrepancy. 

Remember, this is the net value of penalties in terms of expected points over the season. We should expect teams to sit around zero for this. So the Jacksonville Jaguars and Vikings have gained about 30 points worth of value from being penalized less than their opponents, or a little more than two points per game. The Vikings know plenty about the impact of a few points in close games.

Penalty EPA can be applied to players, as well. The players who have cost their teams the most EPA via penalty is an interesting list.

Most EPA Lost via Penalties

Offensive lineman might be called for a higher number of penalties, but because the yards lost are usually smaller and fewer first downs are called back, they tend to be lower on the EPA lost. Defensive backs, on the other hand, usually have costlier penalties that result in more yards and usually a first down given to the offense.

Riq Woolen currently leads all players in Penalty EPA lost which, if he holds on to the lead, would make him the back-to-back “champion”. Woolen led all players last year on almost identical numbers as this year (nine penalties called, eight accepted, -15.8 EPA lost). Without those penalties (which most metrics are not accounting for), he has been an average defensive back. Add those infractions in and it is clear he is hurting the team.

SIS also tracks players who drew certain penalties such as holding and pass interference. Because of this, it is possible to calculate the Penalty EPA that players were able to gain for their team by drawing a penalty against the opponent.

Most EPA Gained from Drawing Penalty

Unsurprisingly, for the same reason as defensive backs, wide receivers draw significant penalties that result in big yards and usually a first down, as well. In fact, among penalties that have been called at least 10 times this season, pass interference calls have the highest average EPA lost per call at -1.6. 

While getting these calls might not be as grabby as traditional stats, it is a huge boost overall and often goes overlooked in the box score. Those handful of penalties for Calvin Ridley, if counted toward his stat line, would effectively double his productivity and have been worth as much value as all of Sam LaPorta’s targets for the season.

Crucial penalties can lead to a big discussion, but over the course of a season, patterns emerge. The teams that are best at winning the Penalty EPA battle may have more wins than traditional metrics show, and the same may be said on the other side. Sometimes the difference between a playoff berth and not getting one may be something as simple as winning the penalty battle.

This article was written by Jeff Dean.

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