Analysis

12/5/22

9 min read

Fantasy Football NFL Week 13: Five Things We Learned

By Nic Bodiford

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Welcome to Five Things We Learned! Every Monday morning, this article will bring you the top need-to-know storylines for Fantasy Football in 2022. All data included in this article comes from trumedianetworks.com unless otherwise stated. 

No. 1: Swift Takes Bellcow Role

• As discussed in Fantasy Football Week 12: Five Things We Learned, Detroit Lions No. 1 running back D’Andre Swift finally resumed control of the backfield’s passing-down role for the time since Week 2. Swift suffered ankle and shoulder injuries early in the year, causing him to miss Weeks 4-7 before returning on a significant snap count in Weeks 8-12. 
• Swift again led the team in passing-down snaps this week, though Justin Jackson’s four two-minute drill snaps led Swift’s two. 
• Swift paced the backfield in rush attempts and red zone and green zone snaps, which unlocks a new aspect of his fantasy profile.
• Swift belonged in the high-end RB2/low-end RB1 conversation with his passing-down/part-time rusher role. With his newfound role in tow, Swift has access to an elite RB1 profile. 
• Both Swift and Jamaal Williams scored touchdowns inside the green zone. Jackson did not play inside the red zone. 
• The table below compares Swift and Williams’s red zone and green zone intended touches, as well as their total Week 13 rushing data. “RZ” and “GZ” refer to the red zone and green zone, respectively. The green zone is the space between the opponent’s 10-yard line and their end zone. 

• Swift made good on the usage, producing 21.10 points-per-reception (PPR) points in Week 13. He is the overall RB4 in PPR scoring entering Monday Night Football.
• The Lions play the Vikings in Week 14, and Minnesota's defense ranks 18th in goal-to-go efficiency rate inside the green zone.

No. 2: Cook Assumes No. 1 RB Role

• Buffalo Bills rookie running back James Cook supplanted Devin Singletary as the team’s No. 1 running back in Buffalo’s 24-10 win over the New England Patriots.
• The table below compares the Buffalo backfield’s snap share. “3/4-L” refers to third- and fourth-down-and-long situations. “Long” is defined as three or more to-go yards. “2-Min.” refers to the two-minute drill.

• The table below compares Buffalo's backfield rushing data. “YPC” refers to yards rushing per carry. “1st Downs per Rush” refers to the rate at which first downs are gained per carry.

• The table below compares the Buffalo backfield’s receiving data.

• Cook has been a dual-threat efficiency king this year. The table below ranks Cook’s rushing data in parentheses among 51 NFL running backs with at least 60 carries. It likewise ranks Cook’s receiving data in parentheses among 41 NFL running backs with at least 20 targets. “No. 1” represents the position or team’s best performance.

• The 5-foot-11-inch, 190-pound Cook is set to erupt down the stretch, playing in the league’s most potent offense. Buffalo’s remaining schedule features a Who’s Who of elite offenses. Their offensive pairings will facilitate high-scoring shootouts.
• Buffalo’s 410.8 total yards per game ranks first in the league. Their 26.83 offensive points per game rank third.
• Buffalo faces the New York Jets in Week 14. With quarterback Mike White starting the last two weeks, New York is averaging 476 yards per game, which is second during that span, and 26.50 points per game, which ranks fifth. 
• Next, Buffalo will play the Dolphins. Miami’s 367.6 yards per game rank sixth, and their 22.58 offensive points per game rank 12th. 
• Buffalo faces the Chicago Bears in Week 16. Starting in Week 10, Chicago altered their playbook to better suit quarterback Justin Fields’ mobility. Since then, Chicago ranks fifth in total yards and points per game. Fields missed Week 12 with a shoulder injury.
• Buffalo faces the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 17. The Bengals rank seventh in total yards and fifth in offensive points per game.  

No. 3: Okonkwo Is TE1 Streamer in Week 14

• As discussed in Fantasy Football Week 11: Five Things We Learned, Tennessee Titans rookie tight end Chigoziem Okonkwo’s on-field participation was steadily increasing as the season progressed.
• This week, Okonkwo posted career highs in routes run (20), single-game receptions (four), and yards receiving (68) while maintaining elite targets per route run (25.0%) and yards per routes run rates (3.40).
• Okonkwo has earned five targets in back-to-back weeks, which is the highest single-game total of his career.
• Okonkwo's slot-alignment rate has risen from 12.1% in Weeks 1-8 to 27.4% in Weeks 9-13. 
• In Week 13, Okonkwo produced a season-high 35.5% slot rate.
• The table below ranks Okonkwo’s receiving data among NFL tight ends with at least 15 targets since Week 9.

• Tennessee’s Week 14 opponent, the Jacksonville Jaguars, has struggled to cover tight ends. 
• The table below ranks Jacksonville’s tight-end coverage data in parentheses using data from Weeks 1-12 via The 33rd Team’s The Edge. “TE-Slot” refers to tight ends lined up in the slot pre-snap. “No. 1” refers to the defense’s best performance.

No. 4: Purdy Is the Man in San Fran

• The 49ers lost starting quarterback Trey Lance (broken ankle) for the season in Week 2 and lost backup Jimmy Garoppolo (broken foot) in Week 13. This leaves No. 3 quarterback Brock Purdy as the team's starter for the rest of 2022.
• Purdy, who stands 6-foot-1-inch, and weighs 212 pounds, offers a poor athletic profile yet scrambled frequently in college. Purdy found rushing to be far more difficult in the NFL.
• The table below ranks Purdy’s Week 13 performance in parentheses among NFL quarterbacks who played in Week 13.

• San Francisco plays the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 14, the Seattle Seahawks in Week 15, the Washington Commanders in Week 16 and the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 17. The table below ranks their offensive and defensive statistics in parentheses. “No. 1” represents the position or team’s best performance.

• Purdy will be up for QB2 streaming consideration against the Seahawks and Raiders.
• Seattle’s offense will help San Francisco’s offense push the pace. Seattle’s leaky run defense should give Purdy a solid running game. 
• Las Vegas’ pass defense is very friendly to opposing quarterbacks.

No. 5: Huntley Likely Starter in Week 14

• Baltimore Ravens starting quarterback Lamar Jackson suffered a knee injury at the tail end of the first quarter.
• Coach John Harbaugh was tight-lipped as to the diagnosis, but reports indicate Jackson suffered a knee sprain that could cause him to miss some time.
• No. 2 quarterback Tyler Huntley started four games and took meaningful snaps in six games last season. Huntley’s passing and rushing data from 2021 and Week 13, 2022, are compared in the table below. Huntley’s 2021 data comes from Weeks 7, 11, 14, 15, 17 and 18.

• Baltimore plays the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 14 and the Cleveland Browns in Week 15. The table below ranks their offensive and defensive statistics in parentheses. “No. 1” represents the position or team’s best performance.

• Pittsburgh will likely limit Huntley on the ground but offer little in the way of pass defense.
• Cleveland’s mid-tier defense can cause problems but has been friendly to opposing run games. Their potent offense should help Baltimore’s offense push the pace.
• Huntley will be up for streaming consideration as a mid-to-high QB2.

WATCH: How Much Will Baltimore Miss Lamar?

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Nic Bodiford

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Nic Bodiford contributes to The 33rd Team's fantasy football department and works elsewhere as an analyst and editor in written, video and audio mediums. These works can be found at Pro Football Focus, 4for4, Nerdball and Fake Teams. Nic moonlights at Legendary Upside by editing Pat Kerrane's weekly article, The Walkthrough.