Analysis

Fantasy Football NFL Week 11: Five Things We Learned

Welcome to Five Things We Learned! Every Monday morning, this article will bring you the top need-to-know storylines for Fantasy Football in 2022. All data included in this article comes from trumedianetworks.com unless otherwise stated. 

No. 1: Buy Low in Tennessee, Part 1

  • Tennessee Titans rookie wide receiver Treylon Burks returned from a four-week absence in Week 10 after suffering a foot injury in Week 4. 
  • The 2022 first-round pick asserted himself as the team’s No. 1 wide receiver in Week 11. He caught seven passes on eight targets for 111 yards receiving.  
  • Burks’ production has not just been noteworthy within the confines of the Titans’ roster. He’s one of the 15 most-efficient wide receivers in the NFL.
  • The table below shows receiving data for Tennessee’s top-three wide receivers with Burks’ production ranked in parentheses among NFL wide receivers with at least 10 targets during the last two weeks. 
Tennessee Titans WRs Rec./Tgt. – Yards Rec. – TD Per Routes Run Rates: Targets – Yards Catch Rate – Yards After Catch per Rec.  PPR Points per Game
Treylon Burks 10/14-135-0 28.0% (T-No. 10) – 2.70 (No. 9) 71.4% (T-No. 13) – 5.30 (No. 11) 11.75
Robert Woods 8/14-79-0 21.9% – 1.23 57.1% – 3.75 7.95
Nick Westbrooke-Ikhine 7/10-147-2 17.9% – 2.63 70.0% – 8.71 16.85
  • Nick Westbrook-Ikhine’s 63-yard touchdown reception in Week 10 is a testament to his long-ball capabilities, yet also provides context as to his role. 
  • Among NFL wide receivers with at least five targets in Week 11, Burks’ 38.1% targets per route run rate was second, and his 5.29 yards per route run ranked first.
  • Burks is flashing both elite target-earning and yardage-producing abilities. Though his Week 11 performance was likely seen by the masses on Thursday Night Football, he is still a buy-low as the world has yet to see a true blow-up game from him. 

No. 2: Buy Low in Tennessee, Part 2

  • Tennessee’s fourth-round rookie tight end Chigoziem Okonkwo has a chance to be a difference-maker down the stretch in 2022 re-draft formats, and he is a must-add in dynasty leagues. 
  • Okonkwo’s opportunities were scarce early on, but he has seen a major increase in offensive participation during the last two weeks.
  • The table below compares Okonkwo’s snap averages and pre-snap alignment rates through Weeks 1-11. 
Chigoziem Okonkwo Per Game: Snaps – Routes Run In-Line Rate Out-Wide Rate Slot Rate
Weeks 1-3 10.7 – 3.7 68.8% 9.4% 15.6%
Weeks 4-6 12.5 – 5.0 56.0% 4.0% 16.0%
Weeks 7-9 22.7 – 7.3 70.6% 5.9% 8.8%
Weeks 10 & 11 24.5 – 11.5 49.0% 10.2% 28.6%
  • The table below ranks Okonkwo’s receiving efficiency rates among NFL tight ends with at least 15 targets. He has quietly been one of the most efficient tight ends in the league.
TE Receiving Efficiency Per Routes Run Rates: Targets – Yards Catch Rate – Yards per Rec. Air Yards per Target – Yards After Catch per Rec.
Chigoziem Okonkwo 22.7% (No. 7) – 2.61 (No. 1) 53.3% (No. 47) – 21.5 (No. 1) 10.53 (No. 5) – 11.25 (No. 1)
  • Most fantasy-football leagues will conclude with the championship game in Week 17 of the NFL season, one week short of the NFL’s regular-season finale in Week 18. Thanks to a fantasy-friendly schedule, Okonkwo has access to five games with high-scoring potential and one moderately soft defensive matchup.
  • Tennessee will face four of the league’s top-12 scoring offenses, and five of the league’s top-16 scoring offenses in Weeks 12-17.
  • Their only opponent outside of the top-16 scorers is the Houston Texans, who are allowing 12.5 PPR points per game to opposing tight ends, which is tied for 14th-most in the NFL, per The 33rd Team’s The Edge.
  • Fantasy managers would do well to snag the budding tight end as soon as possible. 

No. 3: Perine Ready for Lead RB Role

  • Cincinnati Bengals No. 1 running back Joe Mixon exited the team’s Week 11 game against the Pittsburgh Steelers after suffering a concussion just 22 minutes into regulation. 
  • Cincinnati was already short-staffed coming off their Week 10 bye with No. 3 running back Chris Evans out due to a PCL sprain. Evans managed limited practice participation all week but didn’t suit up.
  • No. 2 running back Samaje Perine thrived in a featured, dual-threat role as he scored 30.2 PPR points. The sum likely secures him a top-three finish for the week.
  • The table below shows Perine’s Week 11 production and advanced metrics.
Samaje Perine Rush Att. – Yards Rushing – TD – Fum. Yards per Carry – Yards After Contact per Carry Rec./Tgt. – Yards Rec. – TD – Yards After Catch per Rec. Per Routes Run Rate: Targets – Yards
Week 11 11 – 30 – 0 – 0 2.73 – 1.64 4/4 – 52 – 3 – 13.75 18.2% – 2.36
  • Perine’s rushing line was not indicative of his typical results. The table below shows the sixth-year rusher’s full 2021 and 2022 offensive production. 
Samaje Perine Yards per Carry – Yards After Contact per Carry Per Routes Run Rate: Targets – Yards Catch Rate Yards per Reception – Yards After Catch per Rec. 
2022 4.53 – 3.36 21.8% – 1.50 84.6% 7.26 – 7.33
2021 4.47 – 4.02 19.1% – 1.21 87.1% 8.09 – 8.50
  • Perine’s two career fumbles came during his 2017 rookie year.
  • Per Adam Hutchison’s Injury Index, running backs average 1.8 games missed due to concussion and 2.9 games missed due to nonspecific knee injuries. 
  • Mixon is likely to miss Week 12, but Evans has a chance to return given his limited practicing abilities this week. 
  • Perine and capable No. 4 running back Trayveon Williams offer Bengals coach Zac Taylor a chance to rest both Mixon and Evans against the Tennessee Titans in Week 12. 
  • Consider Perine a priority add off of the waiver wire this week. 

No. 4: Ravens’ Robison a Fantasy WR3

  • Despite being slowed by a groin injury in Week 9, Baltimore Ravens wide receiver Demarcus Robinson is WR30 in PPR points per game, averaging 12.13 PPR.
  • Baltimore’s No. 1 wide receiver, Rashod Bateman, suffered a season-ending foot injury early in Week 8, and Robinson has stolen the temporary No. 1 role from early-season standout Devin Duvernay
  • There was some question as to whether the versatile Duvernay could earn the No. 1 job coming out of Baltimore’s Week 10 bye, but Robinson exploded for 21.8 PPR points against Carolina in Week 11. 
  • Among NFL wide receivers with at least five targets in Week 11, Robinson’s 30.0% targets per route run rate was tied for eighth-best at the position, and his 4.27 yards per route run ranked third. 
  • The table below ranks Robinson’s receiving efficiency among NFL wide receivers with at least 15 targets since Week 8.
WR Receiving Efficiency Per Routes Run Rates: Targets – Yards Catch Rate – Yards per Rec. Air Yards per Target – Yards After Catch per Rec.
Demarcus Robinson 30.0% (No. 5) – 2.91 (No. 2) 76.2% (No. 10) – 12.75 (No. 29) 9.38 (No. 30) – 4.75 (No. 21)
  • Robinson’s usage fits the bill as an intermediate-depth No. 1 wide receiver. He boasts exceptional per-route efficiency marks. 
  • Six weeks remain in fantasy football re-draft leagues, and Baltimore gets to face the division rival Pittsburgh Steelers twice along the way, including in fantasy’s Week 17 championship. Pittsburgh’s 12.72 yards allowed per reception are the most in the NFL. 
  • Baltimore’s Week 15 foe, the Cleveland Browns are fourth-worst with 11.82 yards allowed per reception.
  • Baltimore gets two more games with bottom-16 opponents and one toughie against the Denver Broncos (9.44 yards allowed per reception, No. 1) in Week 13.
  • Outside of the Week 13 game, Robinson should be ranked safely inside the position’s top 36. 

No. 5: Chiefs’ Moore a Must-Add

  • It appeared as though the book was written on second-round rookie Skyy Moore’s 2022 campaign after the Kansas City Chiefs traded for enigmatic wide receiver Kadarius Toney in Week 8. Moore had sporadically flashed potential to that point, and Toney quickly made an impression in his first two games, making highlight-reel catches and ankle-breaking maneuvers around bewildered defenders.
  • But then Week 11 came and Toney’s frustrating history of hamstring strains reared its ugly head, forcing him from the game after just nine routes run.
  • The team was already without starting wide receivers JuJu Smith-Schuster (concussion) and Mecole Hardman (Injured Reserve), which cleared a path for Moore to take flight.
  • The 22-year-old responded by leading Kansas City’s wide receiver corps in both targets (six) and receptions (five). His 63 yards receiving were four fewer than that of veteran Justin Watson
  • On the whole, it was an extremely promising outing. The table below ranks Moore’s receiving data among NFL wide receivers with at least five targets in Week 11. 
WR Receiving Efficiency Per Routes Run Rates: Targets – Yards Catch Rate – Yards per Rec. Air Yards per Target – Yards After Catch per Rec. Pre-Snap Alignment: Out-Wide – Slot
Skyy Moore 37.5% (No. 3) – 3.94 (No. 4) 83.3% (T-No. 8) – 12.60 (No. 22) 11.50 (No. 18) – 1.40 (No. 40) 41.7% (No. 36) – 58.3% (No. 10)
  • Per Adam Hutchison’s Injury Index, wide receivers average 2.6 games missed with hamstring strains, and Toney’s complex hamstring-strain history will not do him any favors. 
  • Moore has an opportunity to seize a prominent role in the NFL’s No. 1 scoring offense (29.10 points per game) and needs to be a priority add off of the waiver wire this week.

WATCH MORE: Week 11 Fantasy Football Recap

 

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