Analysis
5/15/23
5 min read
Fantasy Football Best Ball: How Much Value Does Treylon Burks Hold?
In the introductory article for this series, we laid out the framework for identifying ambiguity in best ball. If you’re not sure what we’re referring to, read that piece first before continuing with this article.
Now that you’re caught up, we’re going to start our journey into the world of ambiguity in best ball with one of the more polarizing teams in the league. More specifically, we’re starting with a player with some of the highest ambiguity rates of any player drafted in the top 10 rounds of best ball drafts — Tennessee Titans WR Treylon Burks.
All data discussed is from Sports Info Solutions.
Burks' Best Ball Value
Coaching, Personnel Changes
The Titans moved on from their antiquated offensive scheme under former offensive coordinator Todd Downing this offseason, promoting Tim Kelly to the same position from his previous post as the pass game coordinator.
The problem is we can’t assume the offense will be run with any appreciable change, considering the team’s identity and dynamics during coach Mike Vrabel’s five-year stint. During that time, the Titans have gone through three offensive coordinators — Matt LaFleur (2018), Arthur Smith (2019-2020) and Downing (2021-2022).
As for offensive personnel, the Titans burned a second-round pick in the 2023 NFL Draft on quarterback Will Levis after they selected Malik Willis in the third round in 2022.
>> READ: Draft Grades for Every Titans Pick
The Titans could’ve used those picks on pass-catchers. Their pass-catching depth chart consists of wide receivers Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Kyle Philips and Burks and tight end Chigoziem Okonkwo.
Said another way, Vrabel and the Titans chose to ignore the clear lack of top-end talent among their pass-catching ranks to take a quarterback in the top three rounds for a second straight season
Tennessee held just six picks in this year’s draft and used them all on the offense. However, they waited until the seventh round to select a pass catcher — wide receiver Colton Dowell. The Titans had a clear need for pass-catching weapons, yet waited until the seventh round to address the need.
Team Volume, Efficiency
The Titans are averaging 61.5 offensive plays per game during Vrabel’s tenure. For comparison, the NFL average during that span was 63.4. Their 61.5 plays per game ranked 29th over those five years (and remember, this came with three different offensive coordinators). Only during Smith’s tenure did the team run more than a modest 59.3 offensive plays per game.
The standard narrative is the Titans have been borderline allergic to the pass under Vrabel, but what do the numbers say? Tennessee averaged 472.2 pass attempts per season during the previous five seasons — the fewest pass attempts in the league by a wide margin.
For a quick comparison, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers led the league in pass attempts per season during that time frame with an average of 200.4 more attempts per season than the Titans.
If we take the average pass rate of 53.7 percent with Vrabel running the team, we’re looking at a median projection of 1,045 total offensive plays and 561 total pass attempts in 2023.
The Titans have consistently ranked in the top 10 in red zone scoring rate during Vrabel’s tenure. They averaged a 66.32 percent red zone touchdown rate during the previous five seasons, with an average red zone rush rate of 47.7 percent.
Individual Projections
Important Metrics (2022)
- Targets per Route Run (TPRR): 23.8%
- Route Participation: 70.7%
- Target Rate: 17.6%
- Average Depth of Target (aDOT): 12.2
- Red Zone Target Share: 10.0%
Using the above data, we can project Burks for 82-132 targets, 65-87 catches, 656-1,063 yards and four to seven touchdowns in 2023. That assumes a smooth translation of important underlying metrics such as career progression, team target market share, targets per route run and team volume expectations.
That puts Burks somewhere in the WR2 to WR5 buckets for the 2023 season, which is a solid range of outcomes considering his current valuation of WR38 in early best ball drafts. The biggest problem is that drafters must make many assumptions regarding Burks’ profile.
Variance-Induced Upside, Downside
With the numbers above providing a solid median projection for the second-year wide receiver, why does Burks carry significant ambiguity regarding both team and individual projections?
Consider the optics of drafting a quarterback in the top three rounds in consecutive seasons, presumed starter Ryan Tannehill being on the final year of his contract, Derrick Henry being on the last year of his contract and the change at offensive coordinator to Kelly.
We could see Levis and/or Willis at quarterback this season, and we could see some combination of Tyjae Spears and Hassan Haskins get additional late-season opportunities, particularly if the Titans are falling out of the AFC playoff picture.
These changes could drastically influence the team’s expected red zone scoring rate, overall offensive efficiency and overall offensive volume expectations heading into the most critical time of the best ball season – the playoff rounds.
That affects Burks’ season-long projection and must be considered for his range of outcomes projections when it matters most to best ball drafters, limiting his appeal slightly.
In summary, Burks is being drafted in a fine spot if only accounting for his median projection but carries a significant downside in his range of outcomes the current landscape isn’t considering. For Burks to approach his WR2 ceiling, a substantial number of items need to break in his favor.
The Titans have to remain in the playoff picture deep into the season, Tannehill and Burks must stay healthy, and Burks has to make a similar second-year improvement in the offense as to what A.J. Brown did (jumped to 25.9 percent and 27.0 percent team target market shares). Tennessee also needs to remain towards the top of the league in red zone scoring rate for the fifth consecutive season through yet another offensive coordinator change.
I am fine taking an underweight stance on Burks in his second season in favor of players like Gabe Davis, Jahan Dotson and Rashod Bateman.
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