Betting

4/3/23

6 min read

Fantasy Football 2023: Potential Landing Spots for Texas RB Bijan Robinson

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Texas running back Bijan Robinson (scouting report) is a borderline generational talent and arguably the best fantasy prospect available in the 2023 NFL Draft. Here, we've analyzed his top fantasy landing spots in order of betting market likelihood. All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook. For each team, Josh Larky and Ryan Reynolds provide fantasy analysis for Robinson, assessing the general fit.

We also give an overall ranking (1-10) for how exciting this landing spot would be for fantasy football.

Implied percentage odds are included for all betting figures to provide additional context. All projected draft slots are courtesy of the NFL Mock Draft Database.

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Bijan Robinson's Profile

Projected Average Draft Slot: 9th Overall

  • Feature back size, elite college production and more than adequate long speed (4.46 40-time).
  • Robinson is a slick pass-catching weapon, and his 16.5 yards per reception in 2022 demonstrate he's running a real route tree out of the backfield.
  • Think Saquon Barkley, Najee Harris or Ezekiel Elliott for rookie season expectations.
  • The incumbent starter suffers tremendously for fantasy football on any team that drafts Robinson in Round 1.

Ryan's four favorite teams (Houston, Atlanta, Detroit and Washington at 50:1) from this February betting article on Robinson have all seen considerable line movement in his favor.

Potential Landing Spots

  Los Angeles Chargers, Pick 21

Odds: +450, 18.2 percent

Rating: 10/10

  • This landing spot would downgrade to a 7/10 if Austin Ekeler is not traded before or just after the NFL Draft.
  • Ekeler has led the NFL in TDs in back-to-back years, with 38 total TDs in that span. Even if Ekeler is stealing pass game work in Year 1, Robinson has immense TD upside.
  • The Los Angeles Chargers have a very good, young offensive line.
  • Justin Herbert is a top-10 QB.
  • New offensive coordinator Kellen Moore has a history of helping two running backs be fantasy relevant — Elliott and Tony Pollard. Elliot had double-digit TDs in three of the last four seasons.
  • Robinson to Los Angeles makes an Ekeler trade incredibly likely.

  Washington Commanders, Pick 16

Odds: +500, 16.7 percent

Rating: 4/10

  Dallas Cowboys, Pick 26

Odds: +550, 15.4 percent

Rating: 7.5/10

  • Pollard is coming off a significant injury — broken fibula and a high ankle sprain — Elliott was an elite fantasy asset early in his career before becoming a TD vulture the past couple of seasons.
  • The Dallas Cowboys are a contender with a top-10 quarterback, top-10 offensive line and top-10 overall offense.
  • Dallas was first (2021) and fourth (2022) in overall scoring, so Robinson could wind up leading the NFL in TDs with this landing spot.

  Philadelphia Eagles, Pick 10 or 30

Odds: +650, 13.3 percent

Rating: 10/10

  • His absolute floor is the Miles Sanders role (1,269 yards rushing and 11 TDs) from last year, with more pass game usage.
  • There's potential for them to script plays for Robinson in the passing game, despite Jalen Hurts' mobility.
  • With their offensive line and general offensive firepower, Robinson would have a solid chance to lead the league in rushing yards and rushing TDs.
  • Dallas Goedert becomes borderline un-draftable at a Round 6 or 7 cost, as he'd then slot behind A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, Robinson and Hurts' rushing attempts in the play-call pecking order.

  Atlanta Falcons, Pick 8

Odds: +950, 9.5 percent

Rating: 8/10

  • Robinson would become Arthur Smith's new Derrick Henry with a slightly smaller rushing workload that's made up for in the passing game.
  • From a volume perspective, Harris' 381 rookie year touches are within reach.
  • The Atlanta Falcons' quarterback situation tempers our enthusiasm, despite the expected monster workload.

  Cincinnati Bengals, Pick 28

Odds: +1200, 7.7 percent

Rating: 10/10

  • Samaje Perine's elite fantasy stretch last season demonstrates why we're incredibly bullish on this landing spot.
  • The Cincinnati Bengals have an elite offense with an improving offensive line.
  • Robinson to Cincinnati spells doom for Joe Mixon on this roster.

  Houston Texans, Pick 12

Odds: +1500, 6.3 percent

Rating: 6/10

  • Harris' 307 carries and 94 targets from his rookie season are a good baseline for Robinson's expected workload and efficiency.
  • Either Bryce Young (scouting report) or C.J. Stroud (scouting report) will almost certainly be the Houston Texans' quarterback in 2023, so Robinson would have a pocket passer in the backfield with him.
  • This is a high-floor but low-ceiling landing spot, as it's a below-average offense with capable running backs in Dameon Pierce and Devin Singletary.
  • The Texans have a talented, unproven offensive line that just added guard Shaq Mason.

  Minnesota Vikings, Pick 23

Odds: +1500, 6.3 percent

Rating: 9/10

  • A high-performing offense where Robinson slots into the Dalvin Cook role.
  • Cook is either traded or cut if the Minnesota Vikings draft Robinson.
  • Their offensive line is somewhere in the 12-18 range.
  • Running back target shares are partially influenced by wide receiver talent, and after Justin Jefferson, the Vikings are quite thin.
  • The target upside for Robinson is immense, and he could flirt for 500-700 yards receiving in year one.
  • Alexander Mattison stays in the ultra-high upside handcuff role.

  Detroit Lions, Pick 6 or 18

Odds: +1600, 5.9 percent

Rating: 4/10

  • The Detroit Lions have an above-average offense with an elite offensive line and a statuesque quarterback.
  • The David Montgomery signing makes this a strange landing spot for Robinson.
  • While Montgomery doesn't do anything better than Robinson, D'Andre Swift is likely a more explosive player, who would still get run in this offense.
  • Montgomery is unlikely to be fully phased out with a fresh $11 million in guaranteed money.
  • This is a nightmare landing spot for anyone trying to project the Lions' backfield.
  • If you want to bet on a Robinson longshot, the Patriots (+2000), Bears (+2000), Ravens (+2000), and Buccaneers (+2200) all have worse odds but make more sense.

Pipe Dream Landing Spots

Robinson is unlikely to be available by the time these two teams pick, and these tantalizing landing spots total just 6.4% cumulative odds of happening in the betting markets. However, these would both represent elite fantasy landing spots for Robinson's year-one outlook.

We hope you enjoyed our thoughts on Robinson's likely fantasy landing spots. We'll have more information about an NFL Draft live stream with a fantasy/betting/dynasty slant at a later date.

WATCH: Robinson's Best Fantasy Fit

Tags: 2023 Fantasy Football, 2023 NFL Draft, Betting See More

Josh Larky

Josh Larky is the Director of Fantasy and Gambling at The 33rd Team.  He joins us with a unique blend of educational and professional experience.

Ryan Reynolds

Ryan graduated with distinction from the University of Minnesota as an accounting major, but some of the most valuable business and investment lessons he has ever learned came from spending weekends learning the sports collectibles business from his father. At a young age, Ryan would voluntarily spend hours sifting through minor league baseball statistics, using his father’s analytics-based system to identify potential targets. Even then, the hitter’s swing or the pitcher’s “stuff” mattered more to Ryan than the perspective granted through just data.

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