Fade Colts QB Anthony Richardson in 2023 Fantasy Football Drafts
Fantasy 5/17/23
Fading Anthony Richardson, the most athletic quarterback in NFL history, when he was just taken No. 4 overall by the Indianapolis Colts, is a risky proposition. This is not the article I expected to write, but given his redraft ADP, I felt compelled to dive into the history of rookie quarterback fantasy expectations.
Rookie QB Fantasy Expectations
Early 2023 ADP
Richardson currently goes at Pick 85 in Underdog Fantasy's best ball drafts, and this is the only fantasy platform with 10,000s of 2023 drafts already powering its ADP. Deshaun Watson goes slightly ahead of him at Pick 83, while Dak Prescott is slightly after at Pick 90. To draft Richardson, you’ll be investing a seventh- or eighth-round fantasy pick as the 10th quarterback off the board.
Redraft leagues will be similar, with his ADP falling somewhere between Round 6 and Round 9 come August. So, why should you fade Richardson?
History of Rookie QBs in Fantasy
From 2008-2022, just four rookie quarterbacks put up at least 18 fantasy points per game (PPG). Last season, 12 quarterbacks averaged at least 18 fantasy points per game while also playing in at least 11 games. Prescott was close behind, at 17.8 fantasy points per game. This needs to be re-stated: only four rookie quarterbacks during the past 15 seasons put up fantasy stats worthy of being a top-12 quarterback in 2022.
Below, you can see those four quarterbacks, along with the next five highest-scoring fantasy performers, as rookies.Â
Player | Year | Team | Games | Fantasy PPG |
Deshaun Watson | 2017 | HOU | 7 | 24.1 |
Cam Newton | 2011 | CAR | 16 | 23.1 |
Justin Herbert | 2020 | LAC | 15 | 22.2 |
Robert Griffin III | 2012 | WAS | 15 | 21.2 |
Dak Prescott | 2016 | DAL | 16 | 17.9 |
Kyler Murray | 2019 | DARI | 16 | 17.8 |
Marcus Mariota | 2015 | TEN | 12 | 17.6 |
Joe Burrow | 2020 | CIN | 10 | 17.4 |
Andrew Luck | 2012 | IND | 16 | 17.3 |
Already, we have identified that rookie quarterbacks simply don’t score many fantasy points. But, the uphill battle for Richardson to score fantasy points as a rookie is further illuminated when comparing him side-by-side to the nine quarterbacks above.Â
College Passing Stats
This table contains each quarterback's college, NFL Draft pick number, career pass attempts, career yards passing, career passing touchdowns and their best season yards per pass attempt.
Player | College | Draft Pick | Career Attempts | Career Yards | Career TDs | Best Y/A |
Deshaun Watson | Clemson | 12th | 1207 | 10168 | 90 | 8.4 |
Cam Newton | Auburn | 1st | 628 | 5741 | 52 | 10.2 |
Justin Herbert | Oregon | 6th | 1293 | 10541 | 95 | 9.6 |
Robert Griffin III | Baylor | 2nd | 1192 | 10366 | 78 | 10.7 |
Dak Prescott | Mississippi St. | 135th | 1169 | 9376 | 70 | 8.7 |
Kyler Murray | Oklahoma | 1st | 519 | 5406 | 50 | 11.6 |
Marcus Mariota | Oregon | 2nd | 1167 | 10796 | 105 | 10 |
Joe Burrow | LSU | 1st | 945 | 8852 | 78 | 10.8 |
Andrew Luck | Stanford | 1st | 1064 | 9430 | 82 | 9 |
Anthony Richardson | Florida | 4th | 393 | 3105 | 24 | 7.8 |
- Richardson is by far the least experienced and least efficient passer among this group.
- Cam Newton’s career numbers include his junior college stats, though his best season yards per pass attempt is from Auburn.
- While Kyler Murray also started just one full season in college, he put up one of the most historic seasons regarding efficiency, and his career numbers are roughly double those of Richardson because of it.
College Rushing Stats
This table contains each quarterback's college, NFL Draft pick number, career yards rushing, best season rush attempts, best season total yards rushing and best season rushing touchdowns.
Player | College | Draft Pick | Career Yards | Best Carries | Best Yards | Best TDs |
Deshaun Watson | Clemson | 12th | 1934 | 207 | 1105 | 12 |
Cam Newton | Auburn | 1st | 2241 | 264 | 1473 | 20 |
Justin Herbert | Oregon | 6th | 560 | 71 | 183 | 5 |
Robert Griffin III | Baylor | 2nd | 2254 | 179 | 843 | 13 |
Dak Prescott | Mississippi St. | 135th | 2521 | 210 | 986 | 14 |
Kyler Murray | Oklahoma | 1st | 1478 | 140 | 1001 | 12 |
Marcus Mariota | Oregon | 2nd | 2237 | 135 | 770 | 15 |
Joe Burrow | LSU | 1st | 820 | 128 | 399 | 7 |
Andrew Luck | Stanford | 1st | 957 | 61 | 453 | 3 |
Anthony Richardson | Florida | 4th | 1116 | 103 | 654 | 9 |
- Richardson’s best season and career rushing stats lag far behind all the other dual-threat quarterbacks on this list.
- Newton’s best season statistics are from his time at Auburn, though his career yards rushing total includes his stint at a junior college.
NFL Rookie Season Stats
This table contains each quarterback's rookie games played, fantasy points per game, rookie yards passing, rookie touchdown to interception ratio, rookie yards rushing, and rookie rushing touchdowns.
Player | Games | Fantasy PPG | Pass Yards | TD-INT | Rush Yards-TD |
Deshaun Watson | 7 | 24.1 | 1699 | 19-8 | 269-2 |
Cam Newton | 16 | 23.1 | 4051 | 21-17 | 706-14 |
Justin Herbert | 15 | 22.2 | 4336 | 31-10 | 234-5 |
Robert Griffin III | 15 | 21.2 | 3200 | 20-5 | 815-7 |
Dak Prescott | 16 | 17.9 | 3667 | 23-4 | 282-6 |
Kyler Murray | 16 | 17.8 | 3772 | 20-12 | 544-4 |
Marcus Mariota | 12 | 17.6 | 2818 | 19-10 | 252-2 |
Joe Burrow | 10 | 17.4 | 2688 | 13-5 | 142-3 |
Andrew Luck | 16 | 17.3 | 4374 | 23-18 | 255-5 |
Anthony Richardson | ??? | ??? | ??? | ??? | ??? |
- Deshaun Watson had a passing touchdown rate of more than nine percent in his rookie season, one of the highest rates of all time. He also threw for 243 yards per game, while Richardson threw for only 212 yards per game at Florida in 2022.
- Newton set the NFL record for quarterback rushing touchdowns in a season (14) while also tossing for a yardage total well outside what Richardson is capable of.
- Justin Herbert threw for nearly 290 yards per game, which is not in Richardson’s range of outcomes.
- Robert Griffin III was excellent at limiting turnovers, while Richardson’s TD-INT ratio was only 17-9 in his final college season. Griffin also led the NFL in yards per pass attempt as a rookie, which is not in Richardson’s range of outcomes, given his college track record.
- Prescott put up one of the most efficient passing seasons of all time, with his 23-4 TD-INT ratio. Prescott’s rookie year fantasy stats would be a disappointment at Richardson’s current ADP.
- Murray put up a fantasy season at the upper end of Richardson’s capabilities, though this fantasy output from Richardson in 2023 would be a let-down given his ADP.
- Marcus Mariota’s rookie year contains better passing but worse rushing than what we should expect from Richardson. However, Mariota’s rookie year would be a fantasy disappointment at Richardson’s current ADP.
- Joe Burrow averaged nearly 270 yards passing per game, which is not in Richardson’s range of outcomes.
- Andrew Luck threw for nearly 275 yards per game, well outside Richardson’s higher-end passing expectations.
Fade Richardson
- Richardson’s passing profile lags far behind the most fantasy-relevant rookie quarterbacks of the past 15 years.
- Richardson’s rushing profile lags far behind the other dual-threat rookie quarterbacks, too.
- Drafting Richardson at his current ADP is a bet on historic athleticism, though nothing in his college profile suggests he can perform at a high level in Year 1.
- While Richardson is a great pick in dynasty rookie drafts, he is an easy fade in 2023 redraft and best ball leagues.
Follow The 33rd Team Podcast Network on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.