NFL Analysis
11/23/23
5 min read
Dak Prescott Legitimate MVP Candidate After Cowboys' Thanksgiving Day Win
For the first time in his career, there was a moment where it felt like the Dak Prescott era might be ending in Dallas. In a 42-10 loss to the San Francisco 49ers, Prescott played arguably the worst game of his career.
Prescott and the rest of the team laid an egg in a game the Dallas Cowboys felt was a measuring stick for their season. The Cowboys scored 10 points, and Prescott had a passer rating of 51.6. Things felt pretty hopeless for Prescott and the Cowboys, even with a 3-2 record.
Prescott's deal runs through the end of the 2024 season, but that game felt like a tipping point. He was struggling in the offense, and it felt like the Cowboys might consider not extending his deal this offseason. There were a lot of doubts about his future with the team.
Turning The Tide
Since that game, Prescott has been on fire. And his performance on Thanksgiving was just another fantastic performance. Prescott shredded the Washington Commanders’ poor pass defense.
Dallas only had four possessions in the first half, but Prescott led the team on three touchdown drives and averaged a whopping 12.3 yards per attempt.
Prescott picked things back up after a slow start in the second half. He threw a beautiful touchdown to CeeDee Lamb and then found him again on the two-point conversion. On the next drive, Prescott hit KaVontae Turpin on a go-ball in the end zone for his fourth touchdown of the game. It was his best throw of the night and sealed the win for Dallas.
Prescott finished the game with 331 yards on 32 attempts with a passer rating of 142.1. It was the third time Prescott had a passer rating of at least 133 in five weeks. He had an incredible 0.59 EPA/play, among the best by any quarterback in a single game this season.
His ADOT of 14.7 was the highest by any quarterback in a single game this season (min. five attempts). He’s attacking down the field, and his aggressiveness is paying off.
Look at Prescott's passing chart via the NFL's Next Gen Stats in Week 12. You'll see that Prescott targeted the deep middle of the field over and over again against the Commanders with a ton of success.
Through 11 games, Prescott has thrown 23 touchdowns and has managed to cut back on his interceptions in a big way. His passer rating of 107.4 is the highest of his career, and the offense is clicking. Dallas is averaging 31.5 points per game, the most in the NFL. They have averaged 38.6 points per game in their last five games, and they've been the NFL's best home team.
Prescott's MVP Case
With the Cowboys having the NFL's No. 1 offense and Prescott playing the best football of his career, why shouldn't he be in the MVP conversation?
No other quarterback is playing better right now, and the Cowboys are one of the top five teams in the league without a question. Prescott is on pace to throw more than 35 touchdowns and 4,500 yards.
And with several home games remaining, it’s a chance for Prescott to continue to rack up the numbers.
Oddsmakers have noticed Prescott’s play and have adjusted accordingly. After the Week 5 loss to the 49ers, Prescott’s odds to win the MVP sat at 50:1 on most sportsbooks. Going into Week 12, they were at +1200 on DraftKings. Those odds have risen to +850 going into the rest of the weekend.
No one says Prescott should be the favorite or even be in the top three. Jalen Hurts is the favorite, with the Philadelphia Eagles having a record of 9-1 on the season. His wins over the Cowboys, Chiefs and Dolphins help his case, even though the stats aren’t quite as impressive as we are used to seeing for an MVP favorite. Lamar Jackson is having a fantastic season with the Baltimore Ravens atop the AFC going into the week.
But none of those quarterbacks are outplaying Prescott this season; especially not over the past few weeks. Over the past five weeks, Prescott has thrown 17 touchdowns, two interceptions.
Prescott currently ranks second in full season QBR (75.4) and in EPA per play (0.26). Both ranking just behind Brock Purdy.
Taking The Next Step
What does Prescott need to do to become a favorite? Just keep doing what he is doing. At this point, his passing numbers will be tough to ignore, and the Cowboys will be one of the top-scoring offenses in the league. But he won't start getting momentum until he starts beating good teams.
The good news for Prescott is he will have plenty of opportunities in the next two months.
The Cowboys play host to the Seattle Seahawks in Week 13 before seeing the Eagles in Week 14. After that, the Bills, Dolphins and Lions are on deck. If Prescott continues his pace and the Cowboys keep winning, he will be too hard to ignore when it comes to MVP conversations.
The Cowboys are 8-3 after 11 games and are still in the hunt for the NFC East crown. They’ll need the Eagles to slip up at some point, but the Cowboys have managed to keep things close.
They wouldn’t be here without Prescott, playing the best football of his career at age 30. The Cowboys are undoubtedly legitimate contenders in the NFC because Prescott is playing like an MVP.
Can he keep it up? That remains to be seen. But this version of the Cowboys is the most dangerous we’ve seen in the last two decades.
