Analysis

3/23/23

9 min read

RB Athletic Archetype Guide: Green Bay Packers

By Nic Bodiford

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Welcome to The 33rd Team’s Athletic Archetypes series. These pieces will break down the preferred, position-specific athletic profiles utilized by NFL general managers. The purpose of the series is to help identify team-specific 2023 NFL Draft targets at the running back position.

NFL Combine data will be used whenever possible. Pro-day data will be used in a supplementary capacity if and when a player chooses not to participate in a combine drill or if the combine data is not available. Pro-day data is marked using an asterisk except for arm length and hand length, which is always collected on pro days.

NFL Draft Scout is the primary data source, with Relative Athletic Score used as the preferred backup. 

Other Archetypes: ARZ | ATL | BUF | CAR | CHI | DAL | DEN | DET | KC | LAC | LAR | LV | MIN | NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | PHI | SF | SEA | TB | WAS

Packers RB Archetype

Brian Gutekunst (2018-Present)

Sample size: 12

• Gutekunst began his career working as a scout for the Kansas City Chiefs in 1998
• He joined the Green Bay Packers soon after, working in the same role from 1998-2011
• After more than a decade doing scout work, Gutekunst was elevated to director of college scouting in 2012 and again to director of player personnel in 2016
• He was promoted to general manager in 2018
• Aaron Jones was drafted one year prior to Gutekunst’s promotion but has been included in Gutekunst’s sample. Gutekunst re-signed him to a contract extension in 2021
• Gutekunst generally prefers two body types at running back: Those with a body mass index (BMI) greater than 31.0 and those below 30.0. The two groups make for a unique approach to the position because 30.0 BMI is generally regarded as the NFL’s preferred BMI size
• The tables below reflect Gutekunst’s preferred athletic archetype for running backs with a sub-30.0 BMI

• The tables below reflect Gutekunst’s preferred athletic archetype for running backs with a BMI greater than 31.0.

General Information, Overlapping Traits

• Gutekunst requires in-depth athletic testing. Among the 12 running backs in his sample, 11 participated in all six NFL Combine/Pro Day drills. The remaining two players skipped just one drill.
• Only Tyler Ervin (192 pounds and 27.5 BMI) weighed less than 202 pounds and had a sub-28.6 BMI.
• Jones has a 30.7 BMI but his athletic testing numbers are all on the excellent ends of the sub-30.0 BMI thresholds.
• Eddie Lacy was drafted by Gutekunst’s predecessor and mentor, Ted Thompson, and serves as the physical prototype for Gutekunst’s heftier running backs. Lacy is not included in the sample, but his athletic metrics can be found below the sample for comparison purposes.
• Thompson-draftee Jamaal Williams played well for Green Bay but ultimately did not fit into either of Gutekunst’s archetypes. His replacement AJ Dillon is a much better fit for the over-31.0 BMI role. Williams’ data can be found below the sample.
• Notable running backs from the Thompson era include Williams (6 feet, 212 pounds and 28.7 BMI), Ty Montgomery (6 feet, 221 pounds and 30.0 BMI), Ryan Grant (6-foot-1, 215 pounds and 28.4 BMI) and  Lacy (5-foot-11, 231 pounds and 32.2 BMI).
• Jones’ unicorn status paints the picture of a freak athlete whose on-field performance convinced Gutekunst that he is worthy of operating in the sub-30.0 BMI role. For this reason, Jones’ data is included in the sub-30.0 BMI sample.
• Among the eight running backs weighing 217 pounds or less, seven have a sub-30.0 BMI.
• Among the four running backs weighing over 217 pounds, all four have a BMI greater than 31.0. Dillon leads the way at 33.5.
• For the over-31.0 BMI crowd, running slower than a 1.61-second 10-yard split has been acceptable. Three of four ran 1.64-to-1.65 seconds.
• Lacy registered a 1.65-second rate
• Gutekunst previously preferred his sub-30.0 BMI and sub-31.0 BMI running backs to run sub-1.60-second 10-yard splits, but he has relaxed that threshold as his tenure has grown. The maximum threshold for all running backs is 1.65 seconds.

Sub-30.0 Body Mass Index Notes

• The sub-30.0 BMI group must run faster than a 4.60-second 40-yard dash.
• Four of eight sub-30.0 BMI running backs ran a 4.34- or 4.35-second short shuttle.
• Among seven sub-30.0 BMI running backs who participated in the three-cone drill, six ran it in 7.03 seconds.(69th percentile RAS) or better, four ran it in 7.00 seconds (74th percentile RAS) or better and two ran sub-6.83 (94th percentile RAS).
• Gutekunst places a premium on the broad jump. All sub-30.0 BMI running backs jumped 10-foot-2 (83rd percentile RAS) or better.
• Seven of eight sub-30.0 BMI running backs vertically jumped 35.5 inches (73rd percentile RAS) or better.
• Seven of eight sub-30.0 BMI running backs produced 15 (32nd percentile RAS) or more bench press repetitions.

Over-31.0 Body Mass Index Notes

• Three of four over-31.0 BMI running backs ran between a 4.50-to-4.53-second 40-yard dash.
• The short shuttle is irrelevant for the over-31.0 BMI group.
• Three of four running backs in the over-31.0 BMI group ran between a 7.09-to-7.19-second three-cone drill.
• The broad jump is crucial for the large group as well. Three of four over-31.0 BMI running backs registered at least a 9-foot-11 in the broad jump. Dillon’s 10-foot-11 (99th percentile RAS) led the entire sample.
• The vertical jump is even more important for the over-31.0 BMI running backs. All four jumped at least 37 inches. Dillon’s team-leading 41 inches ranks in the RAS 99th percentile.
• The over-31.0 BMI running backs must produce at least 19 bench-press repetitions.

Physical Traits Packers Will Target

• All running backs must run the 10-yard split in at least 1.65 seconds

Sub-30.0 BMI

• Likely 5-foot-9 to 5-foot-11, potential for 6 feet
• 202 pounds to 217 pounds 
• BMI: 28.6 to 29.9
• Arms: At least 30.25 inches long
• Hands: At least 9 inches long
• 40-yard dash: Sub-4.60 seconds
• Short shuttle: 4.35 seconds or faster
• Three-cone drill: Likely 7.00 seconds or faster
• Broad jump: At least 10-foot-2
• Vertical jump: 35.5 inches or higher
• Bench press: At least 15 repetitions

Over-31.0 BMI

• At least 5-foot-10
• 220 pounds or more
• Arms: 31.5 inches or longer
• Hands: 9.25 inches or longer
• 40-yard dash: 4.50 to 4.53 seconds
• Three-cone drill: Likely 7.09 to 7.19 seconds
• Broad jump: At least 9-foot-11
• Vertical jump: 37 inches or higher
• Bench press: 19 or more repetitions

Potential 2023 Draft RB Targets

Prospects with strong threshold correlation are marked with an asterisk

Sub-30.0 BMI

• *Jahmyr Gibbs, Alabama: 5-foot-9, 29.4 BMI, 30.5-inch arms, 9.25-inch hands, 4.36-second 40-yard dash and a 1.52-second 10-yard split. His 33.5-inch vertical jump is one inch shorter than Gutekunst’s previous absolute minimum. His 199-pound NFL Combine weight is not disqualifying. Gibbs did not participate in the NFL Combine’s broad jump and shuttle drills (scouting report).
• *Tyjae Spears, Tulane: 5-foot-10, 201 pounds, 28.8 BMI, 30.75-inch arms, 10-inch hands, 10-foot-5 broad jump, 39-inch vertical jump and 18 bench press repetitions. He skipped the NFL Combine’s 40-yard dash and shuttle drills (scouting report).
• *Zach Charbonnet, UCLA: 6 feet, 214 pounds, 29.0 BMI, 32-inch arms, 9.875-inch hands, 4.53-second 40-yard dash, 1.54-second 10-yard split, 10-foot-2 broad jump, 37-inch vertical and 18 bench press repetitions. He did not participate in the NFL Combine’s shuttle drills (scouting report).
• *Deneric Prince, Tulsa: 6 feet, 216 pounds, 29.3 BMU, 31.25-inch arms, 9.25-inch hands, 4.41-second 40-yard dash, 1.53-second 10-yard split, 10-foot-4 broad jump, and a 35.5-inch vertical jump. He did not participate in the NFL Combine’s shuttle drills and bench press.

Over-31.0 BMI

None of the 2023 prospects are particularly strong fits, though some partially qualify

• Tiyon Evans, Louisville: 225 pounds, 32.7 BMI, 4.52-second 40-yard dash, 1.61-second 10-yard split. Evans’ height (5-foot-9.5), arms (30.375 inches), hands (8.5 inches), and vertical jump (30.5 inches) are likely disqualifying.
• Tavion Thomas, Utah: 6 feet, 237 pounds, 32.1 BMI, 9.25-inch hands, 1.62-second 10-yard split. His 31.125-inch arms and 9-foot-10 broad jump are unlikely to be disqualifying, but his 4.74-second 40-yard dash and 30-inch vertical jump likely are (scouting report). 
• Israel Abanikanda, Pittsburgh: 5-foot-10, 31 BMI, 32-inch arms. At 216 pounds, he is three pounds shy of the prior minimum, and his 8.25-inch hands are an inch short. He skipped the NFL Combine (scouting report).

Outlier Targets

• Evan Hull, Northwestern: 5-foot-10, 209 pounds, 9.25-inch hands, 4.47-second 40-yard dash, 1.53-second 10-yard split, 6.90-second three-cone drill, 10-foot-3 broad jump, 37-inch vertical jump and 21 bench press repetitions. His 4.38-second short shuttle is not disqualifying.
• Chase Brown, Illinois: 5-foot-9.5, 209 pounds, 30.4 BMI, 31-inch arms, 10-inch hands, 4.43-second 40-yard dash, 1.53-second 10-yard split, 10-foot-7 broad jump, 40-inch vertical jump and 25 bench press repetitions (scouting report).

The tables below show the raw data used for this running back sample.

• At Brigham Young’s Pro Day, Jamaal Williams improved his short shuttle to 4.26 seconds, his three-cone drill to 7.12 seconds and his vertical jump to 33 inches

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Nic Bodiford

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Nic Bodiford contributes to The 33rd Team's fantasy football department and works elsewhere as an analyst and editor in written, video and audio mediums. These works can be found at Pro Football Focus, 4for4, Nerdball and Fake Teams. Nic moonlights at Legendary Upside by editing Pat Kerrane's weekly article, The Walkthrough.