Analysis

4/19/23

9 min read

RB Athletic Archetype Guide: Buffalo Bills

Welcome to The 33rd Team’s Athletic Archetypes series. In these pieces, NFL and fantasy football analyst Nic Bodiford will break down the preferred, position-specific athletic profiles utilized by NFL general managers. The purpose of the series is to help identify team-specific 2023 NFL Draft targets at the running back position.

NFL Combine data will be used whenever possible. Pro day data will be used in a supplementary capacity if and when a player chooses not to participate in an NFL Combine drill or if the NFL Combine data is unavailable. Pro day data is marked using an asterisk except for arm length and hand length, which is always collected at pro days.

NFL Draft Scout is the primary data source with Relative Athletic Score used as the preferred backup.


Other Archetypes: ARZ | ATL | CAR | CHI | DAL | DEN | DET | GB | KCLAC | LAR | LV | MIN | NE | NO | NYG | NYJPHI | SF | SEA | TB | WAS

Bills RB Prototype

Brandon Beane, Buffalo (2017-present)

NFL Sample Size: 15 Running Backs

  • Beane began his career as a Carolina Panthers personnel department employee in 1998.
  • He advanced to director of football operations in 2008 before assuming the assistant general manager role in 2015.
  • The Buffalo Bills hired Beane as general manager in 2017.

The table below reflects Beane’s preferred athletic archetype for the running back position from 2018-to-present day.

RB Phys. Specs Height Weight (Pounds) Arm Length (Inches) Hand Size (Inches) Body Mass Index
RB Range (Avg.) 5’8”-6’1” (5’10.1”) 194-226 (208.8) 28.875-31.875 (30.7) 8.5-9.75 (9.2) 26.3-32.9 (29.8)
RB Measurables 40 Time (Sec.) 10-Yard Split (Sec.) Short Shuttle (Sec.) 3 Cone (Sec.) Broad Jump  Vertical Jump (Inches) Bench Press (Reps)
RB Range (Avg.) 4.33-4.66 (4.50) 1.52-1.67 (1.58) 4.08-4.60 (4.31) 6.84-7.32(7.02) 9’1”-11’2” (10’1.3”) 33-42 (36) 11-23 (17.2)

Broad Jump

  • Beane inherited star running back LeSean McCoy from Buffalo’s previous regime and quickly learned McCoy’s combination of talent and below-average athleticism is difficult to replicate.
  • Beane added a similar athlete in 2017, free agent Marcus Murphy, but Murphy never amounted to more than a depth piece. Beane upped his standards after that, shaping his process around the broad jump.
  • The broad jump is used to quantify a player’s ability to burst forward from a stationary stance. Both McCoy (8-foot-11) and Murphy (9-foot-1) performed dreadfully in the event, but both also crucially lacked redeeming athletic attributes.
  • McCoy’s career proved to be the exception to the rule, and Beane quickly learned to place at least moderate importance on the broad jump after 2017.
  • McCoy and Murphy are excluded from the sample.
  • Beane’s typical minimum threshold for the broad jump is 9-foot-9 — 5.19 relative athletic score (RAS), though nine-of-14 broad jump participants jumped at least 9-foot-11 (6.43 RAS), seven jumped at least 10-foot (7.16 RAS) and five jumped at least 10-foot-4.
  • In order for Beane to consider drafting a running back who produces a sub-9-foot-9 broad jump, the player must demonstrate elite change-of-direction speed and an elite 10-yard split.
  • The two broad-jump negative outliers include Raheem Blackshear — 9-foot-4 broad jump, 1.52-second 10-yard split (9.49 RAS), 4.22-second short shuttle (7.52 RAS) and a 6.84-second three-cone drill (9.32 RAS), and Frank Gore — 9-foot-1 broad jump, 4.11-second short shuttle (9.15 RAS) and a 6.91-second three-cone drill (8.49 RAS).
Buffalo Bills RB James Cook
Buffalo Bills RB James Cook

210 Pounds or Lighter

  • Beane drafted four-year starter Devin Singletary (5-foot-8 and 203 pounds) in 2019 and again adjusted his formula in 2020, increasing body-weight-related performance thresholds for sub-210-pound running backs.
  • Though Singletary lasted through his rookie contract, he failed to be a difference-maker and was not given a second contract.
  • Among six sub-210-pound running backs added since 2020, four ran faster than a 1.55-second (8.74 RAS) 10-yard split.
  • All six ran faster than a 4.55-second 40-yard dash (6.87 RAS).
  • Beane prefers his sub-210 running backs to run faster than a 4.30-second (5.85 RAS) short shuttle but allows up to 4.40 seconds (3.69 RAS). Three of six players since 2020 ran sub-4.30.
  • Four of six ran 6.90 seconds (8.68) or faster in the three-cone drill.
  • Four of six broad jumped 10-foot-1 (7.78 RAS) or farther, and two jumped 11-foot (9.93 RAS) or farther.
  • Five of six players have at least 30-inch arms and 8.875-inch hands.

210 Pounds or Heavier

  • Beane’s sample includes six running backs weighing more than 210 pounds.
  • Beane requires average-to-above-average straight-line speed for this group.
  • Five of six players ran the 40-yard dash in 4.54 (7.15 RAS)-to-4.65 (4.05 RAS) seconds.
  • Four of six players ran slower than a 1.60-second (6.01 RAS) 10-yard split. Data is unavailable for Frank Gore.
  • Sub-4.40 seconds is ideal for the short shuttle, though not required.
  • All four three-cone drill participants ran just 7.20 seconds (4.08 RAS) or faster. The two most recent players, Damien Harris and Zack Moss did not participate.
  • Four-of-five broad jump participants jumped between 9-foot-9 and 10-foot-6.
  • All six participated in the vertical jump, and four players jumped between 36 and 39 inches.
  • Beane wants players to have at least 31-inch arms and 9-inch hands.

General Sample Information

  • Beane’s minimum threshold for the vertical jump is 33 inches (4.32 RAS). Seven players jumped 36 inches (7.93 RAS) or higher.
  • The bench press is not important.

Team Needs

  • Slender sophomore pass-catching specialist James Cook (6-foot, 204 pounds) produced promising efficiency rates (21.6 percent targets per route run and 1.22 yards per route run) but get on the field consistently.
  • Harris’ one-year prove-it deal indicates the long-term, big-bodied role is up for grabs.
  • Nyheim Hines was primarily relegated to a special teams role after Beane traded for him in Week 9.

Physical Traits Bills Will Target for Lighter RBs

  • Arms: 30 inches or longer.
  • Hands: 8.875 inches or larger.
  • 40-yard dash: 4.55 seconds or faster.
  • 10-yard split: 1.55 seconds or faster (soft minimum threshold).
  • Short shuttle: 4.30 seconds or faster (soft minimum threshold).
  • Three-cone drill: 6.90 seconds (soft minimum threshold).
  • Broad jump: 10-foot-1 (soft minimum) and 9-foot-9 (hard minimum).
  • Sub-9-foot-9 broad jumps will only be considered when players produce at least two of the following: a sub-4.25-second short shuttle, a sub-6.95-second three-cone drill and a sub-1.53-second 10-yard split. 
  • Vertical jump: 33 inches (hard minimum) but 36 inches or more helps.

Physical Traits Bills Will Target for Heavier RBs

  • Arms: 31 inches or longer.
  • Hands: nine inches or larger.
  • 40-yard dash: Likely 4.54-to-4.65 seconds.
  • 10-yard split: Likely 1.60 or slower.
  • Short shuttle: 4.40 seconds (soft minimum threshold). Participation is not crucial.
  • Three-cone drill: 7.20 seconds (soft minimum threshold). Participation is not crucial.
  • Broad jump: 9-foot-9 (minimum threshold).
  • Sub-9-foot-9 broad jumps will only be considered when players produce at least two of the following: a sub-4.25-second short shuttle, a sub-6.95-second three-cone drill and a sub-1.53-second 10-yard split. 
  • Vertical jump: 36 inches (minimum threshold).

Potential Day 1 NFL Draft Targets

Prospects with strong threshold correlation are marked with an asterisk

Pick: No. 27 (Round 1)

  • *Bijan Robinson, Texas: 215 pounds, 31.125-inch arms, 9.75-inch hands, 4.46-second 40-yard dash, 1.54-second 10-yard split, 10-foot-4 broad jump and a 37-inch vertical jump. (scouting report)

Potential Day 2 NFL Draft Targets

Pick: No. 59 (Round 2)

  • *Jahmyr Gibbs, Alabama: 199 pounds, 30.5-inch arms, 9.25-inch hands, 4.36-second 40-yard dash, 1.52-second 10-yard split and a 33.5-inch vertical jump. (scouting report)
  • Zach Charbonnet, UCLA: 214 pounds, 32-inch arms, 9.875-inch hands, 4.53-second 40-yard dash, 1.54-second 10-yard split, 7.16-second three-cone drill, 10-foot-2 broad jump and a 37-inch vertical jump. (scouting report)

Pick: No. 91 (Round 3)

  • *Tyjae Spears, Tulane: 201 pounds, 30.75-inch arms, 10-inch hands, 4.54-second 40-yard dash, 4.32-second short shuttle, 10-foot-5 broad jump and a 39-inch vertical jump. Spears’ 1.57-second 10-yard split and 7.27-second three-cone drill are not disqualifying, given his overall athletic profile. (scouting report)
  • Israel Abanikanda, Pittsburgh: 216 pounds, 32-inch arms, 4.39-second 40-yard dash, 1.54-second 10-yard split, 10-foot-8 broad jump and a 41-inch vertical jump. Abanikanda’s 8.25-inch hands could be an issue. (scouting report

Potential Day 3 NFL Draft Targets

Picks: Nos. 130 (Round 4), 137 (Round 5), 205 (Round 6)

  • *Evan Hull, Northwestern: 209 pounds, 30.625-inch arms, 9.25-inch hands, 4.47-second 40-yard dash, 1.53-second 10-yard split, 4.38-second short shuttle, 6.90-second three-cone drill, 10-foot-3 broad jump and a 37-inch vertical jump. (scouting report
  • *Chase Brown, Illinois: 209, 31-inch arms, 10-inch hands, 4.43-second 40-yard dash, 1.53-second 10-yard split, 10-foot-7 and a 40-inch vertical jump. (scouting report)
  • *Deneric Prince, Tulsa: 216 pounds, 31.25-inch arms, 9.25-inch hands, 4.41-second 40-yard dash, 1.53-second 10-yard split, 10-foot-4 broad jump and a 35.5-inch vertical jump. Prince’s 0.5-inch vertical jump failure is not disqualifying. 
  • Cam Peoples, Appalachian State: 217 pounds, 32.625-inch arms, 9.75-inch hands, 4.61-second 40-yard dash, 1.56-second 10-yard split, 10-foot-1 broad jump and a 37-inch vertical jump. (scouting report)

The tables below show the raw data used for this running back sample.

RB - Round - Year Height  Weight (Pounds) Arm Length (Inches) Hand Size (Inches) Body Mass Index
Damien Harris - FA - 2023 5’10” 216 30.75 9.75 31.0
Duke Johnson Jr. - FA - 2022 5’9” 207 30.375 9.25 30.6
Nyheim Hines - Trade - 2022 5’8” 198 30.75 8.875 198
James Cook - 2 - 2022 6’ 204 31 9.375 27.7
Raheem Blackshear - UDFA - 2022 5’9” 194 30 8.875 28.6
Matt Breida - FA - 2021 5’9” 195 31.125 9.625 28.8
Zack Moss - 3 - 2020 5’9” 223 31.25 9.25 32.9
Antonio Williams - UDFA - 2020 5’10” 215 N/A N/A 30.8
Taiwan Jones - FA - 2020-2022 & 2017-2018 6’ 194 29.5 8.75 26.3
Devin Singletary - 3 - 2019 5’8” 203 28.875 8.5 30.9
T.J. Yeldon - FA - 2019 6’1” 226 31.625 9 29.8
Frank Gore - FA - 2019 5’10” 210 N/A N/A 30.1
Senorise Perry - FA - 2019 6’ 206 31.5 9.5 27.9
Chris Ivory - FA - 2018 5’11” 222 N/A N/A 31.0
Keith Ford - UDFA - 2018 5’10” 219 31.875 9.5 30.5
RB - Round - Year 40-Yard (Sec.) 10-Yard Split (Sec.) Short Shuttle (Sec.) 3 Cone (Sec.) Broad Jump Vertical Jump (Inches) Bench Press (Reps)
Damien Harris - FA - 2023 4.57 1.61 N/A N/A 10’1” 37 16
Duke Johnson Jr. - FA - 2022 4.54 1.60 4.16* 6.88* 10’1” 33.5 18*
Nyheim Hines - Trade - 2022 4.38 1.52 4.35 7.18 9’11” 35.5 11*
James Cook - 2 - 2022 4.42 1.54 N/A N/A 10’4” 33 N/A
Raheem Blackshear - UDFA - 2022 4.53* 1.52* 4.22* 6.84* 9’4”* 33.5* 11*
Matt Breida - FA - 2021 4.39* 1.53* 4.34* 6.85* 11’2” 42 23
Zack Moss - 3 - 2020 4.65 1.67 4.37 N/A N/A 33 19
Antonio Williams - UDFA - 2020 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Taiwan Jones - FA - 2020-2022 & 2017-2018 4.33* 1.58* 4.08* 6.90* 11’* 39.5* N/A
Devin Singletary - 3 - 2019 4.66 1.64 4.40 7.32 9’9” 35 15
T.J. Yeldon - FA - 2019 4.61 1.63 4.22 7.19 9’9” 36 22
Frank Gore - FA - 2019 4.58* N/A 4.11* 6.91* 9’1” 34 N/A
Senorise Perry - FA - 2019 4.38* 1.57* 4.43* 6.89* 10’6”* 37* 18*
Chris Ivory - FA - 2018 4.48* 1.54* 4.60* 7.20* 9’11” 36* N/A
Keith Ford - UDFA - 2018 4.54* 1.64* 4.41* 7.09* 10’6” 39* 19*

 

  • Duke Johnson Jr. increased his vertical jump to 35 inches at Miami’s pro day. 
  • Hines improved his short-shuttle time to 4.27 seconds, his three-cone drill to 6.90 seconds and his broad jump to 10-foot-1 at North Carolina State’s pro day. 

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