Expert Analysis

4/3/23

8 min read

RB Athletic Archetype Guide: Denver Broncos

By Nic Bodiford

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Welcome to The 33rd Team’s Athletic Archetypes series. In these pieces, NFL and fantasy football analyst Nic Bodiford will break down the preferred, position-specific athletic profiles utilized by NFL general managers. The purpose of the series is to help identify team-specific 2023 NFL Draft targets at the running back position.

NFL Combine data will be used whenever possible. Pro day data will be used in a supplementary capacity, if and when, a player chooses not to participate in an NFL Combine drill or in the event that the NFL Combine data is not available. Pro day data is marked using an asterisk except for arm length and hand length, which is always collected at pro days.

NFL Draft Scout is the primary data source with Relative Athletic Score used as the preferred backup.

Other Archetypes: ARZ | ATL | BUF | CAR | CHI | DAL | DEN | DET | GB | KC | LAC | LAR | LV | MIN | NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | PHI | SF | SEA | TB | WAS

Broncos’ RB Archetype

George Paton (2021-present)

Sample size: 16

• George Paton spent the late 1990s and early 2000s working his way through the Chicago Bears and Miami Dolphins scouting departments before landing the director of player personnel job with the Minnesota Vikings in 2007.
• In 2012, Paton was promoted to assistant general manager. He added vice president of player personnel to his title in 2015.
• Paton made the leap to general manager with the Denver Broncos in 2021.
• Paton learned a true dual-threat running back’s value by watching Ricky Williams tear up the AFC East in the early 2000s.
• During Paton’s Minnesota tenure, the team attempted to either feature Adrian Peterson as a dual threat or supply him with a pass-catching backup.
• Toward the end of Peterson’s time in Minnesota, the team spent Day 2 draft capital on quarterback-to-running back convert Jerick McKinnon.
• The hunt for a true dual-threat starter increased in earnest in the ensuing seasons as Paton’s teams further spent Day 2 capital (Dalvin Cook, Alexander Mattison and Javonte Williams) and free agency money (Latavius Murray and Samaje Perine) to acquire players with the skill set.
• Denver's No. 1 running back Williams tore the ACL and LCL in his right knee while also damaging the knee’s posterolateral corner, which bears long-term hazards. The event sent Paton into a frenzy, signing free agents Tyler Badie and Marlon Mack and snagging Chase Edmonds as a throw-in from the Bradley Chubb trade with Miami.

The table below reflects Paton’s preferred athletic archetype for the running back position from 2014-to-present day.

General Sample Information

• Paton prefers thickly built running backs weighing either 215-plus pounds or registering roughly a minimum 30.0 body mass index (BMI).
• There are two outlier players who weigh less than 215 pounds and have a sub-30.0 BMI, however, they are not far from the ideal minimum, registering 29.6 (Mike Boone) and 29.7 (Marlon Mack), respectively.
• All running backs have at least 30-inch arms.
• Paton accepts a wide range of 40-yard dash times but does have size and speed preferences regarding the 10-yard split.
• Ideally, his running backs will run the 10-yard split in 1.60 seconds (6.35 RAS) or faster.
• Paton accepted six running backs who ran 1.61 to 1.62 seconds but all six weighed 215 pounds or more.
• Matt Asiata (5-foot-11, 229 pounds and 31.9 BMI) ran a 1.70-second 10-yard split and appears to be a less athletic prototype for 2023 signee Perine (5-foot-11, 233 pounds, 32.5 BMI), who ran it in 1.62 seconds.
• The short shuttle is not crucial but registering a sub-4.30 seconds is helpful.
• The three-cone drill is important; 14 running backs ran faster than 7.10 seconds (5.75 RAS), nine ran faster than 7.00 (7.45 RAS) and five went sub-6.85 (9.2 RAS).
• The jumping drills are paramount; all Paton running backs participated in the broad jump and vertical jump.
• In the broad jump, 16 jumped at least 9-foot-11 (6.41 RAS), 10 jumped at least 10-foot-4 (8.92 RAS) and five jumped 10-foot-7 or better (9.52 RAS).
• Mike Boone’s 11-foot-7 earned a perfect 10.0 RAS.
• Paton prefers running backs who perform well in the vertical jump, but his 30.0-inch absolute minimum threshold is the only crucial aspect. Among the 19 players in his sample, 13 jumped at least 35 inches (6.66 RAS), nine jumped at least 36 inches (7.91 RAS), five jumped at least 38 inches (9.11 RAS) and three beat 40 inches (9.7 RAS). Cook (30.5 inches) and Asiata (30.0 inches) performed notably poorly.
• Paton makes allowances in the bench press but prefers outright strength; 12 produced 21 or more repetitions.

Physical Traits The Broncos Will Target

• Ideally some pass-catching ability.
• Weight and BMI: Paton accepts a wide range of weight and BMIs, with 215 pounds operating as a fulcrum point. Running backs weighing less than 215 pounds will require a 30.0+ BMI. Running backs weighing 215 pounds or more may have a sub-30.0 BMI.
• 10-yard split: Sub-1.60 seconds, however, running backs weighing over 215 pounds can run slightly slower
• Short shuttle: Ideally, sub-4.30 seconds
• Three-cone drill: Sub-7.10 seconds and the likelihood increases at sub-7.00 seconds and sub-6.85 seconds
• Broad jump: 10-foot minimum, ideally 10-foot-4 or farther
• Vertical jump: Ideally 36 inches or higher, but 30.0 inches is the absolute minimum
• Bench press: Ideally 20 or more repetitions

Potential 2023 Day 1 NFL Draft Targets

Denver traded its first-round draft pick to acquire quarterback Russell Wilson in 2022.

Potential 2023 Day 2 NFL Draft Targets

Prospects with strong threshold correlation are marked with an asterisk

Denver also traded its second-round draft pick to acquire Wilson. The Broncos don't pick until Nos. 67 and 68 in the third round.

• *Israel Abanikanda, Pittsburgh: 216 pounds, 31.0 BMI, 32-inch arms, 1.54-second 10-yard split, 10-foot-8 broad jump, 41-inch vertical jump and proven pass-catching ability. Abanikanda is a draft-season riser, boosted by his 4.39-second Pro Day 40-yard dash (scouting report)
• *Roschon Johnson, Texas: 219 pounds, 29.7 BMI, 32-inch arms, 1.52-second 10-yard split, 10-foot-2 broad jump, 31.5-inch vertical jump and proven pass-catching ability (scouting report)

Potential 2023 Day 3 NFL Draft Targets

Prospects with strong threshold correlation are marked with an asterisk

Denver has picks Nos. 108 (Round 4), 139 (Round 5) and 195 (Round 6). The Broncos traded their seventh-round pick for linebacker Jonas Griffith.

• Chase Brown, Illinois: 209 pounds with a 30.4 BMI, 31-inch arms, 1.53-second 10-yard split, 10-foot-7 broad jump 40-inch vertical jump, 25 bench-press repetitions and pass-catching ability (scouting report)
• Evan Hull, Northwestern: 209 pounds with a 30.0 BMI, 30.625-inch arms, 1.53-second 10-yard split, 6.90 three-cone drill, 10-foot-3 broad jump, 37-inch vertical jump, 21 bench-press repetitions and a history of catching passes (scouting report)
• Deneric Prince, Tulsa: 216 pounds, 29.3 BMI, 31.25-inch arms, 1.53-second 10-yard split, 10-foot-4 broad jump and a 35.5-inch vertical jump. He lacks pass-catching ability.
• Hunter Luepke, North Dakota State: 230 pounds, 30.3 BMI, 31.5-inch arms, 1.58-second 10-yard split, 7.03-second three-cone drill, 36.5-inch vertical jump and pass-catching ability. The 6-foot-1 fullback checks nearly all running back boxes, with fringe short shuttle (4.31 seconds) and broad jump (9-foot-9) results, despite his hulking figure (scouting report)

The tables below show the raw data used for this running back sample.

• At Oklahoma’s Pro Day, Perine improved his 40-yard dash to 4.60 seconds and his 10-yard split to 1.59 seconds.
• At Boise State’s Pro Day, Mattison improved his 40-yard dash to 4.60 seconds and his 10-yard split to 1.57 seconds.

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Nic Bodiford

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Nic Bodiford contributes to The 33rd Team's fantasy football department and works elsewhere as an analyst and editor in written, video and audio mediums. These works can be found at Pro Football Focus, 4for4, Nerdball and Fake Teams. Nic moonlights at Legendary Upside by editing Pat Kerrane's weekly article, The Walkthrough.