Analysis
8/14/23
8 min read
Anatomy of an Elite Fantasy Football Quarterback
This article will help you understand what’s needed for an elite fantasy quarterback season. After walking through the different ways quarterbacks score fantasy points, we'll outline the three archetypes capable of elite fantasy seasons (pocket passer, hybrid and mobile). The end of this article will include my thoughts on a few quarterbacks to target or fade in 2023 fantasy football based on this research.
>>READ: Anatomy of an Elite Fantasy WR
Defining an Elite Fantasy Quarterback
The term "fantasy QB1" is outdated and useless for the majority of fantasy football managers. Generally, fantasy QB1 has referred to anyone finishing top 12 at the position. In a 12-team fantasy league, we shouldn’t aim to select the 12th-best quarterback since he’s technically a fantasy QB1. In short, we don't want to score the fewest points at any position compared to our league mates.
We should strive to blow our competitors out of the water with the fantasy points scored by our quarterback.
Insert the "Elite" fantasy quarterback. During the past 10 seasons, 32 quarterbacks played in at least 12 games while averaging at least 22 fantasy points per game. Put differently, about three quarterbacks per season have reached Elite status in the past decade.
It’s not always possible to draft a top-three fantasy quarterback, so we’ll expand our dataset to what we’ll call a "Good" fantasy quarterback. In the past 10 seasons, 34 quarterbacks played in at least 12 games while averaging 20-22 fantasy points per game. Once again, around three per season reached Good status.
Combined, we should expect six or seven quarterbacks to provide Good or Elite-level fantasy production every year. These are the quarterbacks we should strive to draft in fantasy football. In 2022, three quarterbacks were Elite, and three others were Good.
Where QB Fantasy Points Come From
Using data from the past 10 seasons gives us a baseline for how many fantasy points we should expect based on a quarterback’s profile.
The average fantasy points per pass attempt during this time period was 0.44. If a quarterback attempts 10 passes, we should expect them to score 4.4 fantasy points if we knew nothing else about them.
The 75th percentile for fantasy points per pass is 0.504, and the 25th percentile is 0.407. While this doesn't appear to be a large difference, 0.1 fantasy points per pass attempt does matter. The average NFL quarterback attempts around 34 passes per game — 3.4 more fantasy points for a good passer compared to a bad one.
The average quarterback averages 0.662 fantasy points per rush attempt, roughly 50 percent higher than the fantasy points per pass attempt. If we only look at the more prolific rushing quarterbacks who reached 75 rush attempts in a season, that collective averaged 0.839 fantasy points per rush attempt.
When a quarterback who is a bad passer (0.407 points per pass) but a prolific runner (0.839 points per rush) has 30 pass attempts and seven carries in an NFL game, we should expect their fantasy points from that game to be:
(30*0.407) = 12.2 fantasy points from passing AND (7*0.839) = 5.9 fantasy points from rushing
12.2 + 5.9 = 18.1 expected fantasy points for that game
At the bottom of this article is an easy-to-read table to help you make calculations like this when doing your fantasy research.
The Rushing Myth
Because quarterbacks score a fantasy point every 10 yards rushing, instead of 25 yards passing — and given rushing touchdowns are worth six points while passing ones are worth only four — it makes sense why the fantasy community prioritizes mobile quarterbacks.
Interestingly, high-end rushing is not a common component for Elite (22+ fantasy points per game) or Good (20-22 fantasy points per game) production. Among the 32 Elite quarterbacks, just 12 (35 percent) had at least five carries per game.
Among the 34 Good quarterbacks, just nine (26 percent) reached five carries per game. Most difference-making fantasy quarterbacks are getting it done with their arm, not their legs.
Quarterback Archetypes
There are three quarterback archetypes capable of hitting the Good or Elite fantasy thresholds:
- Pocket Passer - Less than 300 yards rushing with elite passing numbers
- Hybrid - 300 to 700 yards rushing with strong passing numbers
- Mobile - More than 700 yards rushing with decent passing numbers
Pocket Passer
Fifteen of the 32 (47 percent) Elite quarterbacks and 21 of the 34 (62 percent) Good quarterbacks fall into the "Pocket Passer" category.
The average stat lines per 16 games are listed below. PPG is fantasy points per game.
| Pocket Passers | PassAtt | PassYds | PassTD | RushAtt | RushYds | RushTD | PPG |
| Elite | 600 | 4768 | 39.7 | 44 | 165 | 2.7 | 23.3 |
| Good | 578 | 4652 | 34.7 | 36 | 99 | 1.5 | 20.9 |
As expected, an incredible passing season is needed from quarterbacks with minimal rushing equity.
Hybrid
Eleven of the 32 (34 percent) Elite quarterbacks and eight of the 34 (24 percent) Good quarterbacks fall into the "Hybrid" category.
The average stat lines per 16 games are listed below.
| Pocket Passers | PassAtt | PassYds | PassTD | RushAtt | RushYds | RushTD | PPG |
| Elite | 580 | 4496 | 36.1 | 83 | 431 | 4.2 | 23.9 |
| Good | 537 | 4196 | 30.3 | 80 | 419 | 3.1 | 21.3 |
Even the quarterbacks with fairly strong rushing statistics still needed great seasons as passers to reach difference-making fantasy production.
Mobile
Six of the 32 (19 percent) Elite quarterbacks and five of the 34 (15 percent) Good quarterbacks fall into the "Mobile" category.
The average stat lines per 16 games are listed below.
| Pocket Passers | PassAtt | PassYds | PassTD | RushAtt | RushYds | RushTD | PPG |
| Elite | 512 | 3786 | 30.8 | 147 | 886 | 8.5 | 25.4 |
| Good | 437 | 3197 | 19.7 | 151 | 984 | 6.6 | 20.9 |
The Mobile quarterbacks able to reach Elite heights still averaged more touchdown passes than the Good-Hybrid quarterbacks. We see that Good quarterbacks with extreme mobility do not need to be prolific in any passing category.
Importance of Passing
Among the 32 Elite quarterbacks, just four (13 percent) were not in the top half of the league in yards passing per game. All 32 Elites were in the top half of the league in touchdowns passing per game.
Among the 34 Good quarterbacks, just five (15 percent) were not in the top half of the league in yards passing per game. Thirty of the 34 (88 percent) Good quarterbacks were in the top half of the league in touchdowns passing per game.
A fantasy quarterback has never reached Elite heights without an above-average passing season in the last decade. Only three quarterbacks since 2013 had a Good season without being top-half of the league in either yards passing or touchdowns passing per game.
Takeaways for 2023 Fantasy QBs
Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers
Justin Herbert put up 5,014 yards passing and 38 touchdowns passing in 2021 (23.3 fantasy points per game) before injuries ruined his season. He’s set up for an Elite fantasy season in 2023 as the Los Angeles Chargers project to lead the NFL in pass attempts.
Justin Fields, Chicago Bears
Justin Fields needs to take a significant step forward as a passer to have a shot at an Elite fantasy season. It’s easy to see him cracking 20 fantasy points per game with a slight increase in his passing numbers, but he’ll need sustained passing success to reach Elite status.
Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns
Deshaun Watson was always a well above-average passer until he sat out for 18 months and then returned for six games at the end of 2022. Several of those games were negatively impacted by the weather. If we assume he mostly returns to form as a 75th-percentile passer and keeps his six rush attempts per game from last year, his fantasy production projects to be Elite.
Using our numbers from earlier, the league average of 34 pass attempts (0.504 points per attempt) and six carries (0.839 points per carry) per game results in 22.2 fantasy points per game.
Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins
If we remove the game where Tua Tagovailoa left early against the Cincinnati Bengals due to a concussion, only Patrick Mahomes threw for more yards passing per game in 2022. Adding on, only Mahomes, Josh Allen and Joe Burrow threw more touchdowns per game if we remove the abbreviated start against Cincinnati. It’s within reason for Tagovailoa to provide Elite production this upcoming season.
Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks
Geno Smith was 10th in yards passing and sixth in touchdown passes per game last season. Despite chipping in 366 yards rushing, he only scored once on the ground. He’s a great late-round candidate for Good fantasy production in 2023.
Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts
Anthony Richardson completed fewer than 54 percent of his passes at Florida in 2022 and is unlikely to have much success through the air as a rookie. It’s difficult to see him reaching Good status in Year 1. Also, rookie quarterbacks struggle to score fantasy points historically.
Fantasy Points Table
This table can help you calculate the projected fantasy points for different fantasy quarterbacks if you’re interested in doing your own research ahead of fantasy drafts.
Trevor Lawrence had 34.4 pass attempts and 3.6 rush attempts per game. Assuming we all agree he’s a 75th-percentile quarterback, his estimated points would be (34.4*0.504) + (3.6*0.662) = 19.7 fantasy points.
Lawrence only scored 18 fantasy points per game last year, so there’s some meat on the bone for improvement without materially changing his profile or usage.
| Event | Fantasy Points |
| Average Pass Attempt | 0.44 |
| 75th Percentile Pass Attempt | 0.504 |
| 25th Percentile Pass Attempt | 0.407 |
| Average Rush Attempt | 0.662 |
| Rush Attempt From QBs with 75+ Carries | 0.839 |
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