Analysis
5/9/23
6 min read
2023 Dynasty Fantasy Football: Finding Value in Late-Round Rookies
In the 2023 NFL Draft, 80 fantasy prospects (QB, WR, RB, TE) were selected across seven rounds in three days. Most dynasty participants are trying to figure out which players are best for rookie drafts beyond the top prospects. In other words, what the heck should you do with late-round draft picks? Allow me to introduce “dart throws.”
These dart throws are for rookies selected in the final rounds of rookie drafts. This article details the dart analogy and the types of players who classify as good dart throws.
Before we start playing darts, we need to understand our goal when making these late-round selections. Of course, you're always hoping for players like Tyreek Hill or Antonio Brown where career production far outweighs the initial rookie draft acquisition cost.
But we must remain realistic. We are throwing darts, not picking needles out of haystacks. Using my dynasty prospect database, Hill and Brown were Day 3 "Bust" prospects, a classification reserved for late-round players whose draft stock usually indicates a career of disappointment.
There have been 323 “Bust” prospects drafted since 2006, with a hit rate (16+ PPR fantasy point per game threshold) of just 2.8 percent. If you're routinely picking the Hill and Brown "needles," you're going to be stabbed nearly every time.
Finding Fantasy Value in Rookies
Wide Receivers
The goal should always be gaining value without taking infinite attempts to get there. That is much harder to do when taking shots at wide receivers with a paltry 2.8 percent hit rate. If you look at KeepTradeCut.com’s crowdsourced dynasty value chart, only Amon-Ra St. Brown, Hill, Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis are ranked as top 50 Dynasty WRs, despite being drafted on Day 3 (Round 4 onward in the NFL Draft).
For reference, more than 300 receivers have been drafted on that day since 2015. Always look at the number of attempted dart throws when counting your bullseyes.
A better approach is throwing your darts at the right positions Using KeepTradeCut to get an idea of a player’s value in Dynasty, we see every top 12 valued quarterback is either a rookie or has at least one 20+ fantasy point per game season. The quarterback position clearly requires high draft capital or proven success to achieve that level of value. Generally, this is not a late-round dart worth throwing.
Turning back to the wide receiver position. When looking across the top 24 dynasty wideouts, every receiver valued that highly is either a rookie, a former first-round pick or already has a 16+ fantasy point-per-game season on their resume.
Like quarterback, wide receiver requires high capital or proven success to achieve that level of value. Again, these are not our most optimal dart throws to make late in rookie drafts.
Running Backs
If you’re worried all positions require youth with high draft capital or proven production to have high dynasty value, the running back landscape is much different. Running back value is heavily reliant on the projected opportunity and flashes of production. Dameon Pierce, Isiah Pacheco and Rachaad White all appear within the top 24 in value, despite a lack of draft capital and proven production.
They all have an opportunity for high volume in 2023, along with previous glimpses of solid fantasy production. We can go further down in value, finding players like Khalil Herbert and Tyler Allgeier, who returned more than their acquisition cost as late-round dart throws. Last season, Pierce, Pacheco, White and Allgeier were all rookies you could have flipped just four to six months after drafting them for greater value.
Kenneth Gainwell, Elijah Mitchell, Rhamondre Stevenson, Chuba Hubbard, Michael Carter, Khalil Herbert, Pierce, Zamir White, Trestan Ebner and Pacheco are running backs from the 2021 and 2022 draft considered to be “bad” relative to their draft positions. Yet, they all provided some form of higher value. Quarterbacks and wide receivers cannot compete with the running back value spike due to immediate starting opportunities from injury.
Tight Ends
With tight ends, a small glimpse of production creates a value increase. Last year's rookies — Greg Dulcich, Chigoziem Okonkwo and Isaiah Likely — are all valued as top 20 Dynasty tight ends, even though none put up 11 fantasy points per game; Okonkwo and Likely didn't even reach seven. Because tight ends traditionally take longer in their careers to achieve meaningful fantasy production, even with a solid prospect profile, they are usually cheap in rookie drafts.
I classify tight end athleticism into three tiers: Freak, Gifted and Raw. Freak is the highest level of athleticism thresholds, and Raw is the lowest. Since 2006, there are just 12 tight ends drafted after Round 2 that have put up a 17+ fantasy points per game season. Of those 12, only Jordan Reed had Raw-level athleticism. Drafting tight ends late in rookie drafts can provide an optimal edge, but we're strengthening our hit rate by adding strong athleticism into our dart throw criteria.
Final Strategy: Diversification
Keep it simple. Draft running backs and athletic tight ends in the late rounds of rookie drafts. The final strategy for optimal decision-making: Diversification.
Here's a thought experiment. You are in 10 leagues where the same situation occurs: Sitting at 3.05 in your rookie draft, and you have the choice between Luke Schoonmaker and Israel Abanikanda. Even though both are good options as a dart throw, you shouldn’t draft the same player in all 10 instances.
Rather, take a few shares of each to scatter your chances of a situation or talent breaking right and profit. Getting stuck with 10 shares of one player when the other gained value is just burning yourself when you didn’t need to. Put another way, don't be cocky. You may think you know which late-round option will be considered a steal six months from now, but in reality, this framework is a way to make intelligent, data-driven guesses about which players will gain value.
In 2023 rookie drafts, several players fit the archetype of a strong-process dart throw. Abanikanda, Zach Evans, Tyjae Spears, Evan Hull, Roschon Johnson, Schoonmaker and Darnell Washington are all good options. While not every dart throw will hit, optimizing chances to gain value late in rookie drafts can turn any dynasty squad into a juggernaut.
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