Fantasy
12/7/22
6 min read
Raiders vs. Rams Thursday Night DFS Showdown
The Las Vegas Raiders have put up over 400 yards of offense in three straight games. Josh Jacobs has been the main catalyst to that, resulting in them winning three straight games. Their defense has not allowed a team over 100 yards rushing in this three-game stretch either, and this game against the Rams shouldn't be any different.Â
The Rams are a depleted roster looking to see what they have in store for next season. They claimed Baker Mayfield, but on the short week, it's highly unlikely we'll see him be activated. John Wolford or Bryce Perkins will get the start, but neither has much to give on the offensive side of the ball. Aaron Donald will also be missing his second straight game.
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Vegas Line: Raiders -5.5
Over Under: 44.5
Notable Injuries:
Raiders: OUT: WR Hunter Renfrow, TE Darren Waller. Questionable: RB Josh Jacobs, C Andre James, DT Andrew Billings, LB Jayon Brown, CB Rock Ya-Sin.
Rams: OUT: QB Matthew Stafford, WR Cooper Kupp, WR Allen Robinson. Questionable: QB John Wolford, WR Ben Skowronek, WR Lance McCutcheon, DL Aaron Donald, LB Terrell Lewis, CB Troy Hill.
Data to Know Provided by Sports Info Solutions
Raiders Offense vs. Rams Defense
- Derek Carr averages 7.2 yards per attempt, 8.3 air yards per attempt, and a 4.8% pass touchdown rate.
- The Rams have allowed 7.4 yards per attempt, a 68.5% completion rate, and a 4.4% pass touchdown rate.
- Without Aaron Donald, the Rams allowed Geno Smith to throw for 367 yards passing and three touchdowns.
- They did limit the running game of the Seahawks, holding them to 4.1 yards per carry.
- The two primary coverages for the Rams are Cover 3 and Cover 4. These will be the two coverages they play over 60% of the time.
- Against these two coverages, Derek Carr ranks 24th in yards per attempt at 7.1.
- They bring five pass rushers at one of the highest rates in the league but rarely bring more than five.
- Against five or fewer pass rushers, Carr averages 7.1 yards per attempt and has an 18-8 pass touchdown to interception ratio.
- Against Cover 3 and 4, Davante Adams has a 40% target share, gets targeted on 36.7% of his routes, and averages 3.2 yards per route run.
- Amongst players with over 40 routes against these coverages, Adams ranks 1st in target share and 4th in yards per route run.
- Mack Hollins ran 100% of the routes last week, but against the Rams' primary coverages, he gets targeted on under 20% of his routes.
- Keelan Cole ran 73% of the routes for four straight weeks but has yet to impact the passing game.
- Foster Moreau has been targeted against these coverages more frequently than Hollins, at a 20.7% rate.
- Moreau averages 1.9 yards per route run against these two coverages.
- Six different wide receivers have had over 100 yards receiving against the Rams' secondary. (Marquise Brown, Tyler Lockett, DK Metcalf, Stefon Diggs, Deebo Samuel, and Chris Olave.
- Most of these players did it on Crossers, Corners, Posts, or Verticals.
- Cole runs these routes more frequently than Hollins, but Hollins has had more production.
- Josh Jacobs has dominated the running back touches and has been the best running back in football.
- Jacobs leads the NFL in rushing yards and is 6th in receiving yards amongst RBs.
- The Rams have had success against running backs this season, but Jacobs is not like most running backs.
- The other RB likely to see work will be Ameer Abdullah as a third-down receiving back, and with the short week, we could see usage out of Zamir White.
Rams Offense vs. Raiders Defense
- John Wolford averages 6.3 yards per attempt, 7.9 air yards per attempt, and a 1.6% pass touchdown rate.
- The Rams claimed Baker Mayfield, but I do not believe he will take any snaps in this matchup.
- The Raiders have allowed 7.6 yards per attempt, a 70.4% completion rate, and a 4.7% pass touchdown rate.
- The primary coverages of the Raiders will be Cover 1 and Cover 3.Â
- Against the Raiders' primary coverages, Wolford averages 6.5 yards per attempt, a 61% completion percentage, and hasn't thrown a touchdown.
- Wolford has thrown an interception in every regular season start he has made.
- Van Jefferson and Ben Skowronek run the most routes on this team.
- Tyler Higbee has been the most targeted player, with Wolford as the starter.
- The Raiders have struggled against players lining up in the slot, as they give up the 10th most fantasy points to that alignment.
- Three players have run over 15 routes from the slot in the last two weeks: Jefferson, Skowronek, Tutu Atwell, and Brandon Powell.
- Atwell has been the most productive player of the bunch, with Powell being second.
- Powell hasn't run over 40% of the routes once this season.
- Austin Trammell is the only other WR of note that got targeted on 25% of his routes last week.
- In the running back room, Cam Akers has been the main player.
- Akers handled most of the rushing attempts and all the goal-line work.
- Kyren Williams has seen snaps as a pass catcher but has not been the primary ball carrier.
- The Raiders have been great at stopping the run but bad against running backs out of the backfield.
Overall Thoughts
The Rams will try to slow the game down and run the ball early and often. The Raiders should be able to contain that and turn it into an early lead. The player on the Raiders I have the most interest in is Keelan Cole, and it's because he will only need one play to make an impact. There are not many players priced in the $200 on DraftKings that are running over 70% of the routes. Off the short week, I am worried about the utilization of Josh Jacobs, who has had to deal with a lingering calf issue, but he is still in play because he can still get the big workload. Tutu Atwell is my favorite amongst the Rams pass-catchers, but it's a very messy group. Overall, I believe this is a Raiders early lead, and they control the majority of the game.
Multiplier Pool
- WR Davante Adams
- RB Josh Jacobs
- QB Derek Carr
- TE Foster Moreau
FLEX Pool
- QB John Wolford
- RB Cam Akers
- WR Mack Hollins
- WR Van Jefferson
- TE Tyler Higbee
- RB Kyren Williams
- DST Raiders
- WR Ben Skowronek
- WR Tutu Atwell
- K Daniel Carlson
- K Matt Gay
- RB Ameer Abdullah
- WR Brandon Powell
- RB Zamir White
- WR Austin Trammell
- WR Keelan Cole
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