The 49ers are the only team to hold the Seahawks’ offense under 10 points this season, and it will be a challenge to score points in this one. The Seahawks have turned the ball over in every single game this season, including three turnovers in the first matchup. Only two teams have scored over 20 points against the 49ers this season: The Chiefs and the Falcons. The 49ers will be without Deebo Samuel, and that is a big loss for this offense.
The Seahawks have their work cut out for them and will need a perfect game from the offense. Brock Purdy has shown a lot of smart decision-making, but his arm has given teams chances to make plays. Geno Smith needs to get the team the lead and force the 49ers to open the playbook up with Purdy.
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Vegas Line: 49ers -3.5
49ers: IR: DT Maurice Hurst Jr., QB Trey Lance, RB Elijah Mitchell, CB Jason Verrett; OUT: WR Deebo Samuel
Seahawks: IR: SS Jamal Adams, WR D’Wayne Eskridge, RB Rashaad Penny
Data to Know Provided by Sports Info Solutions
49ers’ Pass Offense vs. Seahawks
- Brock Purdy averages 6.9 yards per attempt, a 67.2% completion percentage, and a 5.9% pass touchdown rate.
- The offense for the 49ers is built upon getting their playmakers the ball and letting things happen after the catch, which is why Purdy is finding success.
- The loss of Deebo Samuel will increase the workload for Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle, and Christian McCaffrey.
- The Seahawks have given up 7.3 yards per attempt on the year, but since Week 8, that number has been 6.6 yards per attempt.
- In the last three matchups against the 49ers, the Seahawks have given up 8.5 yards per attempt and six passing touchdowns.
- The Seahawks have played a lot of Cover 3 coverage in recent weeks, and it was heavily utilized in the first matchup against the 49ers.
- Since coming over to the 49ers, McCaffrey has been targeted on 30% of his routes against this coverage, which is the 19th-highest rate amongst players with at least 30 routes since Week 7.
- Samuel has had the highest target share against this coverage, with Aiyuk second.
- Aiyuk averages 1.84 yards per route run against Cover 3.
- George Kittle averages 1.61 yards per route run against Cover 3.
- Kittle was inactive in the first matchup against the Seahawks but has had 22 targets in his last two games against this defense.
- Ray-Ray McCloud and Jauan Jennings are the two players that will get more wide receiver work, and there’s a possibility some plays are drawn up for Danny Gray.
49ers’ Rush Offense vs. Seahawks
- Christian McCaffrey has a lingering knee issue but will be the main player for every snap he’s playing.
- The Seahawks have given up over 170 rushing yards in two of the past three games and allowed four different running backs to have six or more receptions.
- The primary backup will be Jordan Mason, and with how well he ran at the end of last week’s game, I expect him to get usage.
Seahawks’ Pass Offense vs. 49ers
- Geno Smith averages 8.0 yards per attempt, a 71.5% completion percentage, and a 5.8% pass touchdown rate.
- In their first matchup, the 49ers ran Cover 4 at over a 60% rate, and I’d expect a similar gameplan.
- Geno has been great against each coverage, but the 49ers have a defensive line that can cause havoc. Utilizing the Trenches Tool, you can see the Seahawks have a big disadvantage in the trenches.
- Against Cover 4, DK Metcalf gets targeted more frequently than Tyler Lockett, but every other stat is very close.
- Metcalf has had four or more receptions in the last three games against the 49ers but has failed to get over 70 yards.
- Lockett has had four or more receptions in his last six games, and this year put up over 100 yards against this defense.
- Marquise Goodwin is the third wide receiver in the offense and has the speed to win down the field.
- Noah Fant ran the most routes in the tight end room but failed to get a target in the game against the Panthers.
Seahawks Rush Offense vs. 49ers
- Kenneth Walker returns, and I’d expect him to be in a timeshare with Travis Homer.
- Walker is off the injury report and has averaged 4.7 yards per carry on the season.
- The 49ers have the best run defense in the NFL, only allowing 3.3 yards per carry.
- Not a single RB has had over 60 yards rushing against the 49ers this year.
Geno Smith would have to play a perfect game to put up points against the 49ers, and will need to do it early so they can force Brock Purdy to make plays. Smith will need DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett to make big plays down the field to put up big numbers. Seattle’s young offensive line will need to play a perfect game as well, but I don’t believe that will happen. I don’t expect Walker to be able to do enough offensively to make an impact on the showdown contest.
The 49ers will need to get more creative without Deebo Samuel, and I expect it to be a big game for George Kittle. Kittle has a great matchup against the Seahawks’ linebackers, and with the attention to Christian McCaffrey, he will have free room to work. Jordan Mason should be getting some carries to keep McCaffrey fresh in this game, and Ray-Ray McCloud will get utilized on some of the Deebo screens.
- RB Christian McCaffrey
- QB Geno Smith
- WR Tyler Lockett
- WR DK Metcalf
- TE George Kittle
- QB Brock Purdy
- WR Brandon Aiyuk
- WR Marquise Goodwin
- DST 49ers
- RB Jordan Mason
- TE Noah Fant
- K Robbie Gould
- K Jason Myers
- WR Jauan Jennings
- DST Seahawks
- RB Kyle Juszcyk
- TE Will Dissly
- WR Ray-Ray McCloud