I found three Super Bowl Underdog Fantasy Picks that you should take ahead of next Sunday’s matchup between the Chiefs and Eagles. For each pick, I’ll lay out the statistical and/or logical case behind it, so you can better understand my process.
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Jalen Hurts Higher than 21.5 Completions
- Jalen Hurts was higher than this number in just five of 17 games played this year. However, I really like this line for the Super Bowl because of the matchup.
- Quarterbacks averaged 36.7 pass attempts and 24.1 completions per game against the Chiefs this year.
- That 24.1 completions per game figure is even getting dragged down because Malik Willis completed just five passes in Week 9.
- In 15 of 19 games this year, the opposing quarterback was higher against Kansas City.
- The only QBs lower than this number were:
- Derek Carr for Las Vegas in Week 5
- Malik Willis for Tennessee in Week 9
- Bryce Perkins for the Rams in Week 12
- Davis Mills/Jeff Driskel for Houston in Week 15
Jerick McKinnon Lower than 22.5 Rushing Yards
- Jerick McKinnon has five or fewer carries in four of his past five games.
- McKinnon has seven or fewer rushing yards in four of his past five games.
- McKinnon has only beaten this number once in the past five games when he carried a season-high 11 times for 25 yards against Jacksonville.
- McKinnon is averaging just 1.8 yards per carry over the past five games.
- The Eagles are not a great run defense, but they’ve been roughly league-average the past two months.
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire was nearly activated ahead of the AFC Conference Championship game, and he should be active for the Super Bowl in two weeks.
- Assuming Edwards-Helaire is activated, McKinnon’s rushing line should drop precipitously.
Patrick Mahomes Lower than 18.5 Rushing Yards
- Patrick Mahomes will be three weeks removed from the high-ankle sprain come the Super Bowl.
- Full recovery generally takes 4-6 weeks, so he shouldn’t have his normal mobility back yet
- Mahomes was lower than this number in nine of 19 games this year.
- Mahomes averaged 21 rushing yards per game during the regular season when fully healthy.
- This line is similar to his season average, not baking in the ankle issue.
- In the past two games with this injury, Mahomes has run three times for eight yards in each contest.
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We hope you enjoyed reading through these Super Bowl Underdog Fantasy Picks. As always, deposit your money responsibly.
