While the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs don’t play for 13 more days, I’ve already found five Super Bowl player props I have put my money on. I expect these lines to move as the game draws closer, and I outline the logical/statistical case for each bet.
Along with the betting odds and sportsbook, I’ll provide the implied probability, too. If I’m taking a -115 bet, I’m expecting it to hit more often than the implied probability of 53.5%.
Jerick McKinnon UNDER 23.5 Rushing Yards
Odds: -120 (54.6%) on DraftKings and BetMGM
- Jerick McKinnon has five or fewer carries in four of his past five games.
- McKinnon has seven or fewer rushing yards in four of his past five games.
- McKinnon has only beat this number once in the past five games, when he carried 11 times for 25 yards against Jacksonville.
- McKinnon is averaging just 1.8 yards per carry over the past five games.
- The Eagles are not a great run defense, but they’ve been roughly league average the past two months.
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire was nearly activated ahead of the AFC Conference Championship game, and he should be active for the Super Bowl in two weeks.
- Assuming Edwards-Helaire is activated, McKinnon’s rushing line should drop precipitously.
- This line is already down to 20.5 rushing yards at FanDuel.
DeVonta Smith OVER 61.5 Receiving Yards
Odds: -115 (53.5%) on DraftKings and BetMGM
- DeVonta Smith has been OVER this number in 10 of his past 18 games (56%).
- While Smith has been UNDER this number each of the past two games, the Eagles won by at least 24 points in both playoff games.
- I would be completely shocked if the Eagles blew out the Chiefs, as the Chiefs haven’t lost by more than four points since Week 7 of the 2021 NFL season.
- Smith finished the 2022 NFL season on an absolute tear:
- From Weeks 10-18, Smith averaged 9.2 targets, 6.1 receptions, and 83.8 receiving yards per game.
- He was OVER this number in seven of those nine weeks prior to the playoffs.
Travis Kelce OVER 76.5 Receiving Yards
Odds: -115 (53.5%) on DraftKings
- Travis Kelce was OVER this number in 11 of 19 games (58%).
- Kelce has been OVER this number in his past eight playoff games.
- The Eagles are an elite pass defense overall, but they do allow a significant portion of receiving yards to go to TEs. Using our flagship tool, The Edge, I calculated the percentage of a team’s WR/TE receiving yards that came from TEs.
- 26.6% of total receiving yardage from the WR/TE position came from TEs when facing the Eagles, the tenth highest figure this season.
- Juju Smith-Schuster and Kadarius Toney are both questionable to play in the Super Bowl, so Kelce may be counted on even more than usual for this matchup.
Patrick Mahomes MOST Passing Yards in the Game
Odds: -220 (68.8%) on FanDuel
- I don’t usually like betting on anything with so much juice, but mathematically, I like this play.
- The included sample I used for this analysis was Patrick Mahomes’ 19 games and Jalen Hurts’ 17 games from the 2022 season/playoffs.
- Running 100,000 simulations, I would randomly grab one pass yards game log from Mahomes and one from Hurts.
- 72.9% of the time, Mahomes’ pass yards number was higher than Hurts’ number, which is better than the 68.8% implied probability of -220 odds.
- During the regular season, Mahomes attempted 38.1 passes per game, while Hurts attempted just 30.7 passes per game.
- During the regular season, the Eagles defense allowed 6.4 yards per pass attempt, while the Chiefs defense was close behind, at 6.7 yards per pass attempt.
- It’s tough to envision the Chiefs leaning on a running back room that’s averaging just 4.1 yards per carry over their past five games.
- While the Eagles boast arguably the NFL’s top pass defense, Mahomes is the one QB that’s truly matchup-proof:
- He threw for 338 yards against Buffalo, 423 yards against the 49ers, 329 yards against the Chargers, at least 328 yards in both games against the Broncos, and 326 yards against the Bengals (last week).
- These are all top-12 pass defenses according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA.
Skyy Moore Anytime Touchdown
Odds: +950 (10.5%) on PointsBet
- Skyy Moore ran 29 routes in the Conference Championship game, with both Juju Smith-Schuster and Kadarius Toney exiting early with injuries.
- It’s too early in the week to speculate on their exact injury statuses for the Super Bowl, but neither is a guarantee to suit up.
- Moore was targeted seven times on his 29 routes, and his targets per route run rate of 24% is very strong.
- +950 odds for potentially a starting Chiefs WR is simply too good to pass up at this stage.
We hope you enjoyed reading through these five Super Bowl player props. As always, please bet responsibly.
