NFL Analysis
1/8/24
4 min read
Buffalo Bills Are NFL's Biggest Wild Card Entering Playoffs
Going into their Week 13 bye week, the Buffalo Bills looked lost. They were 6-6 and had lost all six games by one score. The defense was a significant issue, allowing 37 points to the Eagles the week before. And without several tiebreakers, the Bills would likely need to run the slate to make it to the postseason.
Well, they did exactly that. The Bills won their final five games, three of which came against playoff teams (Cowboys, Chiefs, Dolphins).
They found ways to close out close games and their defense started to come alive in December. Over the final five weeks, the Bills allowed just 16.8 PPG and held the Cowboys, Dolphins, and Chiefs all under 18 points.
TAKING AFC East Creates Advantage
Buffalo earned the No. 2 seed in the AFC, stealing the AFC East away from the Miami Dolphins. That means the Bills will avoid having to go to Kansas City again this season and a potential postseason rematch would happen in Buffalo in Round 2.
Buffalo has the third-best odds to win the Super Bowl, behind only the 49ers and the Ravens. Sportsbooks view the Bills as legit Super Bowl contenders, but anyone who has watched this team knows that they could also be one-and-done.
The Bills will host the Pittsburgh Steelers in Round 1 in Buffalo. On paper, that seems like a dream matchup. Mason Rudolph will get his first playoff start of his career and the Steelers are likely to be without All-Pro edge T.J. Watt (knee). The Bills enter this game as 10-point favorites, the biggest margin of any wild card game.
Bills' Biggest Enemy Might Be Themselves
Unfortunately, this game will be anything but a walk in the park for Buffalo because that's how it's been all season for the Bills. Even when things are going well, they can't stay out of their own way.
The Week 18 game against the Miami Dolphins perfectly exemplified that. Buffalo had no problem moving the ball up and down the field, but multiple mistakes kept it from putting the game away earlier.
Josh Allen had three turnovers against the Dolphins in Miami. That's pretty concerning considering that Miami was without their top three edge rushers and All-Pro CB Xaiven Howard.
There was also a sequence before halftime where Allen threw the ball short of the end zone, resulting in the Bills failing to score. Throwing the ball away would have guaranteed the Bills a field goal, keeping the Bills within four points.
In the playoffs, these are the types of plays and decisions that ultimately will decide games. That the Bills struggle in these situations is a huge concern entering the postseason.
Allen made several big plays in the second half to help lead the Bills to the win. But a failed fourth down sneak with 2:00 minutes left to go gave the Dolphins a chance to tie or win the game. As splashy as Allen can be, his consistency and decision-making can be incredibly frustrating.
Can Bills Be Trusted?
The Bills have an excellent chance of making a run in the AFC playoffs because the bracket sets up exceptionally well for them. The fact that a potential rematch against the Chiefs would be in Buffalo rather than Kansas City would be incredible.
The Bills could avoid the No. 1 seed Baltimore Ravens until the AFC Championship Game. Again, this is another huge win for the Bills' postseason outlook.
But the Bills have given us no reason to trust them despite their five-game winning streak. Could this be the year they finally get over the hump and get back to the Super Bowl? Absolutely. But it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Bills upset by Mike Tomlin and the Pittsburgh Steelers in Round 1.
In some ways, that makes the Bills the most fun team in the playoffs. Their range of possible outcomes might be wider than any team in the postseason.
A lot of that is due to Allen, who is the most high-variance quarterback that we've seen in a long time. Could he go nuclear in the postseason and lead the Bills to the Super Bowl? That wouldn't be a surprise in the slightest. But it wouldn't be a shock if he had multiple turnovers against the Steelers in Round 1 and the Bills were bounced from the playoffs.
Time will tell how this year will play out for the Bills, but be wary of expecting too much of this team. There are a lot of reasons on both sides of the ball to think they may be fool's gold.
