Fantasy

7/27/23

5 min read

Buffalo Bills 2023 Fantasy Football Team Preview

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As we inch closer to opening day of the NFL season, we want to prepare you for your fantasy football drafts. That process begins with our team previews, where we’ll break down each team’s offense while providing players we’re targeting and, in some cases, avoiding.

>> READ: Bills Season Preview from Matt Cassel

Bills Fantasy Football Team Preview

Head Coach: Sean McDermott (seventh season)

Offensive Coordinator: Ken Dorsey (second season)

Key Offensive Additions:

Key Offensive Departures:

Key Offensive Rookies:

Points Per Game: 28.4 (second)

Passing Yards: 258.1 (seventh)

Rushing Yards: 139.5 (seventh)

Vacated Targets: 148 (13th)

Pass: 65 percent Run: 35 percent

Pace: 21st

OL Rank: 21st

Quarterbacks

Josh Allen led all quarterbacks in fantasy points per game in 2021 (24.6) and last season (25.7). During those two years, Allen was second in passing touchdowns (71), seventh in yards passing per game (263), fourth among quarterbacks in yards rushing per game (46) and second in rushing touchdowns (13). Needless to say, Allen is one of the best quarterbacks in the league and a top-three option at the position in fantasy.

Allen has elevated an overrated supporting cast on offense for several seasons, so we can reasonably expect that to continue. However, Buffalo Bills coach Sean McDermott has stated multiple times he wants Allen to run less and take less contact. 

Allen also said this offseason that he needs to adjust his playing style. If Allen’s stellar fantasy numbers take a slight hit, it will come from Buffalo’s conscious effort to reduce Allen’s rushing volume.

Running Backs

Second-year runner James Cook looks poised to carry the torch after several seasons of the disappointing Singletary experience. Cook only carried the ball 89 times as a rookie, and though he was a strong pass-catcher in college, he was only targeted 32 times in 2022. 

He weighs fewer than 200 pounds, so there are questions about the type of workload he can handle. However, he appears firmly entrenched atop this depth chart thanks to Round 2 draft capital from last season. Consider Cook a low-floor RB3 type with upside. He could have anywhere from 125 to 250 touches in a potent Bills offense.

Harris is the favorite for the thumper role. His 202 carries and 15 rushing touchdowns from 2021 are his high-end ceiling in this offense. 

There’s a chance the 33-year-old Murray out-competes Harris for this role. Murray has been surprisingly consistent, with at least 160 touches in four of his past five seasons. Harris and Murray are most likely touchdown-dependent fantasy options.

Allen should also be firmly in the mix once again for some goal-line carries, though the duo of Harris and Murray lowers Allen’s rushing touchdown floor in 2023. Allen has averaged 7.6 rushing scores per season, with at least six in all five campaigns.

Wide Receivers, Tight Ends

Stefon Diggs is coming off his third straight season with 150 or more targets, and there isn’t a significant threat on the roster to cut into his massive usage. The one thing that could change in Buffalo’s offense is their personnel usage, as we expect them to use more two-receiver sets this season. The Bills doubled their usage of two wide receiver sets last season and then drafted tight end Dalton Kincaid in the first round. 

This should help Gabe Davis, who averages 3.23 yards per route run out of this personnel grouping. That will not equate to a fantasy boom from Davis because he won’t see significant enough volume with Diggs on the roster. However, Davis is a high-upside option in a premium offense that you can consistently get in the seventh to ninth round of fantasy drafts.

The Bills will still utilize plenty of 11 personnel, where their third wide receiver role will be situation-based between Deonte Harty and Khalil Shakir. Harty can play outside and has the speed to help pull a safety to free things up for Diggs. 

Shakir can get open in the short areas. When Diggs is getting doubled, Shakir should win underneath.

Overall, Jordan Vanek expects Diggs’ massive volume to keep him in the top tier of wide receivers. Davis should be drafted as a boom/bust option for redraft leagues, as he’s going a bit too low, given his upside in Buffalo’s elite offense. 

Vanek could see Kincaid out-targeting Knox; however, Knox should see more red zone usage than Kincaid. That type of split would keep both tight ends from having great production this year.

Dynasty Buy

Ian Miller: Buy Harris (RB46)

In what was a down year for Harris’ rushing usage, his carry percentage was still nearly double Cook’s. Harris has shown an ability to be a 45-percent-or-higher carry percentage running back. Now, in a high-scoring offense, he’s exactly what we’re looking for. 

Bills We’re Targeting or Avoiding in Fantasy Football

Josh Larky: Avoid Cook

Ryan Reynolds: Target Harris

Jordan Vanek: Target Diggs, Davis

Other Fantasy Previews

NFC East: DAL | NYG | PHI | WAS

NFC North: GB | CHI | MIN | DET

NFC South: NO | ATL | CAR | TB

NFC West: SF | LAR | SEA | ARI

AFC East: NE | MIA | NYJ

AFC North: CIN | CLE | BAL | PIT 

AFC South: HOU | IND | JAX | TEN

AFC West: KC | LAC | LV | DEN

Follow our Team on Twitter

Josh Larky: @JLarkyTweets

Ryan Reynolds: @RyanReynoldsNFL  

Jordan Vanek: @JordanVanekDFS   

Ian Miller: @Dynasty_IM   

Our data is provided by Sports Info Solutions, and our vacated targets figure is provided by Tru Media. 

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Tags: Buffalo Bills, Dalton Kincaid, Damien Harris See More

Ryan Reynolds

Ryan graduated with distinction from the University of Minnesota as an accounting major, but some of the most valuable business and investment lessons he has ever learned came from spending weekends learning the sports collectibles business from his father. At a young age, Ryan would voluntarily spend hours sifting through minor league baseball statistics, using his father’s analytics-based system to identify potential targets. Even then, the hitter’s swing or the pitcher’s “stuff” mattered more to Ryan than the perspective granted through just data.

Josh Larky

Josh Larky is the Director of Fantasy and Gambling at The 33rd Team.  He joins us with a unique blend of educational and professional experience.

Ian Miller

Ian Miller attended Washington State University, where most of the time he was building fantasy football models when he should’ve been paying attention to lectures. That’s where he first started building his process that he continue to grow today. It’s a process that gives probability of success and range of outcomes for recruits all the way to ten year NFL veterans. It’s something Ian not only shares with the readers, but also uses in his personal fantasy leagues.

Jordan Vanek

Jordan has been playing DFS since 2016 and started writing content at the end of 2020. While playing DFS, he has managed multiple top 10 finishes in NFL, college football, baseball, basketball and NASCAR.

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