NFL Analysis
3/11/24
6 min read
Biggest Winners, Losers From NFL's Early Free Agent Action
The first day of the NFL’s legal tampering period opened on Monday, and we saw a flurry of moves across the league. But who was the biggest winner during the first wave of free agency? And which teams and players left a lot to be desired?
Here are our thoughts after the early action in free agency:
Biggest Winners, Losers From Early Free Agent Action
Winner: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 
Before free agency officially kicked off, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers locked up two of the most prominent players on the market. They re-signed WR Mike Evans to a team-friendly deal that should keep him in Tampa Bay for the rest of his career. Evans had a fantastic 2023 season, leading the NFL in touchdown receptions (13) and racking up 1,255 yards. Going into Year 11, he'll have a chance to surpass 12,000 career yards in 2024.
Not only did the Buccaneers lock up Evans through the 2025 season, but they also retained their quarterback. Baker Mayfield was expected to garner a ton of interest on the open market, but the Buccaneers made sure he didn't make it that far. They signed Mayfield to a three-year deal worth more than $100 million.
There isn't really a middle class when it comes to quarterback salaries, but Mayfield is certainly in it now, and it's a huge win for the Buccaneers. The Buccaneers have won the NFC South in the past three seasons, and keeping their core intact makes sense, especially with the big move that another division rival made on Monday.
>>READ: Most Surprising Contracts from Early Action
Loser: Chicago Bears 
Heading into Day 1 of free agency, this was one of the deepest running back classes in recent memory. Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry, Josh Jacobs and Tony Pollard tested the free-agent waters, so the teams that were the most patient would be rewarded.
However, rather than show patience, the Chicago Bears addressed their running back need immediately. Chicago made the first move of the legal tampering period, agreeing to terms with D’Andre Swift.
According to Adam Schefter, the Bears will give Swift $16.5 million guaranteed in the first two years of the deal. Only six running backs (as of this posting) have more guaranteed money on their contract than Swift.
Swift is undoubtedly a good player, but the scheme and offensive line were fantastic in Philadelphia. Just a year ago, we saw Miles Sanders, coming off a Pro Bowl season, sign with the Panthers and flame out right away. Swift is a more talented player, but is it really worth giving him that much guaranteed money in a deep running back class?
Winner: Atlanta Falcons and Kirk Cousins 
The Atlanta Falcons are officially winners because they landed the No. 1 player on the market, Kirk Cousins. Atlanta has been a quarterback-needy team for several years, and it added the top available quarterback. Agreeing to a four-year deal with him will give the Falcons some stability at the position moving forward.
Cousins is also a huge winner because he lands on a team with a good offensive line and skill players galore. The Falcons also have Zac Robinson running their offense, which shouldn’t be a big transition for him at all. Atlanta gives Cousins the best chance for success in 2024 and moving forward.
All of their offensive firepower gives the Falcons a real chance to make some noise in 2024, and they should be considered the NFC South favorites. Atlanta suddenly becomes an interesting sleeper team in the NFC.
Loser: Justin Fields
Speaking of the Bears, one of the biggest losers from Monday has to be Justin Fields. Multiple teams addressed their quarterback needs with the Steelers (Russell Wilson), Falcons (Cousins) and Raiders (Gardner Minshew) all agreeing to deals with quarterbacks.
Fields' market is quickly drying up, and it’s looking more likely he will be a backup in 2024 rather than a full-time starter. It’s possible the Minnesota Vikings show some interest after losing Cousins, but would the Bears feel comfortable dealing him in the division? The Broncos could also be a target, but they may want to wait until after the draft before making a move for Fields.
There are a lot of unanswered questions regarding Fields and his next team. But did the Bears overplay their hand? Or was it that the NFL didn't view Fields as a franchise quarterback worth investing in? We will never know, but this offseason has not gone particularly well for Fields.
Winner: The Running Back Market
This might have been the deepest running back market in NFL history. Barkley, Jacobs, Pollard and Swift (among others) were unrestricted free agents and switched teams on Monday. Barkley and Jacobs earned strong deals with big signing bonuses.
Swift was the first running back off the board and secured a multi-year deal worth $8 million annually. Even players like Devin Singletary and Antonio Gibson inked big deals with a lot of guaranteed money.
Running back is still devalued compared to other positions, but it's been a while since we've seen a free-agent frenzy like this. Kudos to all of the running backs who earned big deals.
Loser: Carolina Panthers 
It’s hard to understand exactly what the plan is for the Carolina Panthers. They opened the day by agreeing to a deal with former Dolphins OG Robert Hunt with $63 million in guarantees. Carolina needed to add interior offensive line help but signing Hunt to a five-year deal worth up to $100 million seems rich. Hunt has never been a Pro Bowl selection and will turn 28 before the season. He’s a good player, but is he worth that type of guaranteed money?
The Panthers also traded their best defensive player, EDGE Brian Burns, to the Giants for just a second- and fifth-round pick. Burns had eight sacks in 2023 and 46 during his five years in Carolina.
That trade came on the heels of the Panthers losing another of their best young playmakers in Frankie Luvu, who signed a modest three-year deal with the Commanders. Luvu started all 17 games for the Panthers last season, recording 125 tackles and 5.5 sacks.
He has improved during the previous two seasons, but the Panthers allowed him to leave the building and received no compensation. Allowing Luvu to walk, especially when a deal to trade Burns was in the works, seems irresponsible for a team deprived of talent.
Carolina has also yet to add a weapon for Bryce Young, and the reason for that is at least understandable. Mike Evans (Buccaneers) and Michael Pittman Jr. (Colts) re-signed with their respective teams before free agency, and the Bengals placed the franchise tag on Tee Higgins.
There aren't many great options in free agency available, but for a team desperate for offensive playmakers, the Panthers have yet to add one.
