NFL Analysis
3/11/24
8 min read
2024 NFL Free Agency: Most Surprising Contract Figures From Early Action
The start of the 2024 NFL free agency period has been as entertaining as anyone could've hoped. After a substantial cap-space spike, the league is flush with money, so a relatively weak crop of veterans quickly landed market-resetting deals. Several guards and running backs cashed in quickly.
Kirk Cousins, Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs and other key names found new homes, so we're looking at the most surprising contracts from Monday. Only some big deals on Day 1 of free agency were bad, so let's dive into the seven significant agreements.
>> READ MORE: Report Cards for Day's Biggest Moves
Most Surprising NFL Free Agency Moves
Kirk Cousins, QB, Atlanta Falcons
Contract: 4-years, $180 million, $100 million guaranteed
There's no question that the Atlanta Falcons have a better quarterback today than they have since Matt Ryan was sent packing to the Indianapolis Colts two years ago. Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke likely held back a team that could make the playoffs, and new coach Raheem Morris couldn't stake his future on either.
Signing Kirk Cousins, who is 35 and coming off an Achilles tear, is risky. While Cousins' play in 2023 was as good as we've seen from the veteran, that injury is brutal. Cousins has long been considered good but not good enough to elevate a team to be a serious Super Bowl contender, and Atlanta is getting potentially damaged goods at a premium price.
The value of Cousins' deal per year is only a modest increase over Daniel Jones' contract, and Cousins is easily better than Jones. The concern is his guarantees bleed into 2026, where he'll receive $10 million after getting $45 million in 2024 and 2025. If Cousins isn't close to as good as he was in 2023, Atlanta will regret handing him a deal that seemed unlikely to be matched by other suitors.
Thankfully, Cousins' game isn't predicated on athleticism, and he's a relentless worker. Atlanta offers a strong supporting cast to ease his transition, and a weak NFC South won't require him to be a star to lead the team to the postseason. As always with Captain Kirk, his value will be tied to playoff performance.
Christian Wilkins, DT, Las Vegas Raiders
Contract: Four years, $110 million, $84.75 million guaranteed
The Las Vegas Raiders aggressively pursued Christian Wilkins, the best defensive free agent on the market. Wilkins exploded for a career-high nine sacks in 2023 for the Miami Dolphins and was as charming as can be on HBO's Hard Knocks. Las Vegas desperately needed a reliable DT after missing countless attempts over the years.
He certainly brings availability to the Raiders, if nothing else. He was one of seven defensive linemen to notch more than 850 snaps last season, joining new teammate Maxx Crosby. However, the Raiders must get the most out of Wilkins' pass rushing, as he's averaged only four sacks per season, including his breakout 2023 campaign.
Wilkins has primarily been a reliable run-stopper, so Miami allowed him to play out 2023 without extending him early. The 6-foot-4, 310-pounder from Clemson delivered on the opportunity, and Las Vegas seemed to pay the "bad team tax,” giving Wilkins $27.5 million annually.
With Chris Jones also earning a new contract this week, it's surprising to see Wilkins get about 15 percent less than the Chiefs' star. Jones is much better than Wilkins right now, so the Raiders have to maximize what Wilkins does to keep this deal from aging poorly.
Saquon Barkley, RB, Philadelphia Eagles
Contract: Three years, $46.75 million ($37.75 million base), $26 million guaranteed
So much for the notion that Philadelphia Eagles general manager Howie Roseman wouldn't pay running backs. In fact, with the running back market so depressed, Roseman zigged and broke the bank for Saquon Barkley. Seeing Barkley land in Philadelphia for up to $15.8 million a year wasn't on many people's bingo cards.
However, Barkley's contract structure makes more sense. Last week, we named Barkley a major free-agent risk, but he essentially has only the first two seasons guaranteed. Even with Barkley's notable injury history, this deal has no long-term implications that will significantly hurt the Eagles if things go south.
Consider that Philadelphia produced the NFL's fifth-leading rusher in 2022 (Miles Sanders) and 2023 (D'Andre Swift), and Barkley is much more talented than those two. If he can stay healthy, we'll see a massive 2024 season from Barkley.
D'Andre Swift, RB, Chicago Bears
Contract: Three years, $24 million, $15.3 million guaranteed
On the other end of the running back deal spectrum is D’Andre Swift. The Chicago Bears, who allowed David Montgomery to walk last offseason and drafted Roschon Johnson, oddly guaranteed two years for Swift.
Last season was the first time in Swift's career that he carried the ball more than 151 times and started more than eight games. Ryan Poles paid a premium for someone with significant durability concerns.
The idea of pairing a rookie quarterback like Caleb Williams with a competent veteran running back makes sense. But the Bears had the money to land someone more reliable like Josh Jacobs or Tony Pollard, the latter of whom received a similar deal from Tennessee. Even Aaron Jones, released from Green Bay shortly after they landed Jacobs, would have been a better talent for the backfield.
Since taking over in Chicago, Poles has made questionable moves. While this deal isn't an albatross, it came at the expense of adding better players. Swift was a prime candidate to get another one-year, incentive-laden deal.
Gabe Davis, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars
Contract: Three years, $50 million ($39 million base), $11 million guaranteed
The Jacksonville Jaguars could still bring Calvin Ridley back into the fold, but they quickly came to terms with a new WR2 in Gabe Davis. The former Bills playmaker failed to find consistency in Buffalo, and now he appears to be a replacement for Ridley or Zay Jones in Jacksonville.
Although Davis' contract is modest overall, the idea of committing at least $13 million to someone who averaged 791 yards during the last two years with Josh Allen as his quarterback is odd.
Then, consider that the 2024 wide receiver class has historic depth, and this one is quite the head-scratcher before other moves are made. The Jaguars shouldn't want to overpay an inconsistent and aging Ridley, but Davis solves little for Trevor Lawrence and this offense. The soon-to-be 25-year-old produces in chunks but will go weeks without making an impact.
Maybe that changes in Jacksonville, or the team overhauls the position by letting Ridley and Jones walk. Revamping the unit around Christian Kirk, Davis and an early-round rookie is a more fleshed-out plan. Davis' contract is a head-scratcher for now due to the fit.
Robert Hunt, OG, Carolina Panthers
Contract: Five years, $100 million total, $63 million guaranteed
The Dolphins lost two free agents to nine-figure deals on Monday, and the Carolina Panthers handed out the more stunning of the two. Robert Hunt, who enjoyed an excellent 2023 season, landed a deal that makes him the second-highest-paid right guard in the league. The 6-foot-6, 335-pounder allowed only one sack and two penalties in 547 snaps last season.
Carolina desperately needed help along the interior. However, the thought process of putting a 6-foot-6 guard in front of 5-foot-10 QB Bryce Young makes this one a bit strange. Young, who struggled mightily to see the middle of the field in his rookie campaign, now has to overcome having one of the tallest blockers in the league right in front of him.
Also, Carolina paid an incredible premium for a position that hadn't seen that type of investment for similar players. Just hours earlier, the Rams landed 6-foot-4 Jonah Jackson from Detroit for $51 million ($34 million guaranteed). Sure, Jackson dealt with injuries in 2023, so his stock might've been lower, but the guarantee discrepancy speaks of a recklessness from Carolina that seems unnecessary.
Bryce Huff, EDGE, Philadelphia Eagles
Contract: Three years, $51 million, $34 million guaranteed
The Eagles previously permitted star edge-rusher Haason Reddick to seek a trade, and it makes sense they'd want a replacement for the All-Pro talent. With no deal in place, the Eagles quickly landed Bryce Huff from the New York Jets. His deal has the potential to be the most boom-or-bust of the offseason.
Philadelphia has nailed several of these contracts recently, investing in up-and-coming talents before they hit their prime. Reddick is a great example of that. However, there's a risk that Huff could be fool's gold.
Huff has been exclusively a pass-rush threat throughout his career, playing only 21 percent of first downs during his four-year career. He exploded with 10 sacks in 2023 but had only 7.5 through his first three years. He'll theoretically battle with 2023 first-round pick Nolan Smith to supplant either Reddick or Josh Sweat.
This deal may age as wonderfully as Reddick's did after joining the Eagles. If he hits, then it'll be another Roseman gem.
