NFL Draft
4/2/25
8 min read
2025 NFL Draft: 7 Prospects With Most Boom or Bust Potential
The NFL Draft is all about taking calculated risks. In addition to needing to identify the right type of player to fit the scheme and situation they're entering, teams must weigh how likely it is that a prospect has the right demeanor and blend of ceiling and floor. Every player has a different boom-or-bust potential and a unique best- and worst-case scenario outcome.
Knowing exactly what will happen with every 2025 NFL Draft prospect is impossible. However, we can use what we think we know as outsiders to help project how likely it is certain prospects will hit their ceiling or fall to their floor. We've even guestimated a boom or bust potential rate based on how similar players have fared in the last 10 years.
A risky prospect shouldn't necessarily mean teams should avoid them. It's hard to find a future All-Pro or Pro Bowler without taking on some risks. Which top prospects are worth rolling the dice for this April?
NFL Draft Prospects With Most Boom or Bust Potential
7. Luther Burden, WR, Missouri
Boom/bust rate: 45%/55%
There are a lot of physical similarities between how Luther Burden wins as a thickly-built speedster and how Ja'Marr Chase can threaten defenses on screens and deep routes.
However, the margin between Chase's dominance and being relegated to an odd-fitting offensive weapon. We've seen countless slot-dominant threats who fail to fit into a new role in the NFL.
Burden has the speed to be a tremendous vertical threat, and he's already well-known for his creation after the catch. He spent more than 81 percent of his snaps in the slot during the last two years, so his versatility and experience should benefit an NFL offense.
The key is for his next destination not to pigeonhole him as a screen merchant or as reliant on the scheme as most similar receivers not named Deebo Samuel end up being.
Given how often NFL teams like to plug and play talent into the role they saw in college, it's going to take a more creative mind to get the most out of Burden. Add in some character concerns shared by ESPN's Matt Miller this week about Burden's attitude, and his bust rate is a little higher than what's ideal for someone who was once projected to be a top-10 pick.
6. Shavon Revel Jr., CB, East Carolina
Boom/bust rate: 80%/20%
Injuries are another wild card that has to be factored into projecting someone's possible outcomes, and one of the elite playmakers is coming back from a torn ACL. Shavon Revel Jr. is a unicorn at cornerback, standing just under 6-foot-2 and 194 pounds with elite play speed and ball production. Had he stayed healthy, there's a decent chance he'd be a top-10 lock in this class.
Instead, Revel played only 204 snaps in 2024 and could be viewed as a one-year wonder in college. That one season was incredible, and he was off to an excellent start in three games in 2024, but there's more uncertainty with Revel than with Travis Hunter, Jahdae Barron, and maybe one or two others. What if Revel never fully recovers from his knee injury?
Chances are good that Revel will ultimately get back to being one of the freakiest athletes in the class with rehab. We don't often see someone with Revel's blend of athleticism, instincts, and production fail in the NFL, so he has our highest boom or bust rate in his favor.
5. Walter Nolen, DT, Ole Miss
Boom/bust rate: 40%/60%
There are reps where you watch Walter Nolen, and it looks a lot like Gerald McCoy or Aaron Donald reincarnated on the football field. His speed and movement ability at 296 pounds is jarring, and he often looked much smaller on the field because it was abnormal how quickly he could change directions. Those peaks are what teams are banking on.
Nolen's engine ran hotter in 2024 than in previous years, leading to a big jump in advanced stat production. His quarterback hurries tripled, and run stops were well beyond his previous top mark. But there are still skeptics around the league about Nolen's consistency and drive to push himself into peak form.
Those questions might prove completely off base, but talented defensive tackles without top work ethics bust more often than most positions. The physicality of the trenches requires toughness. If Nolen is resilient and motivated, he could boom, but that huge ceiling might also be unreasonable to expect, even if he's the hardest worker in the room.
4. Mike Green, EDGE, Marshall
Boom/bust rate: 58%/42%
Coming from Marshall immediately raises doubts about whether Mike Green can hang with NFL big boys. There were limited opportunities for Green to face Power 4 teams, and some will throw his incredible season's worth of production aside even if he totaled four sacks against Virginia Tech, Ohio State, and Louisiana in the Conference Championship game. He missed an opportunity to quell concerns when he bypassed the 40-yard dash at the Combine.
That all said, the rest of Green's profile and film is fantastic. He posted elite short shuttle and 3-cone times of 4.25 and 6.85 seconds, respectively. Weighing in at 251 pounds and measuring 6-foot-3 checked more boxes. Add in a season with 17 sacks and 59 pressures, and he's a terrific prospect.
Though he's a very good run defender and top-notch pass-rusher, competition questions will exist until we see evidence otherwise. His career missed tackle rate of 14.3 percent is also a red flag of whether his play strength will hold up in the NFL. I'd bet on Green hitting because his traits are that good, but there are valid concerns he'll bust.
3. Cameron Ward, QB, Miami (FL)
Boom/bust rate: 53%/47%
It seems like it's a done deal Cameron Ward will be Tennessee's next quarterback. The likely No. 1 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft will be a big swing despite separating himself from the pack. He put up career numbers across the board at Miami in 2024 and showed off a tremendous physical skill set that is hard not to love.
Speaking of love, though, is Ward's best NFL comparison, Jordan Love. When Love came out of Utah State, he had a similarly smooth passing motion that effortlessly generated velocity to all levels of the field. When his touch was on point, few could spin it prettier, and Ward can dazzle like that.
However, Ward's mechanics, ability to lead receivers into open space, and ability to avoid turnover-worthy throws are inconsistent. Love hammered out most of his bad habits as a backup in Green Bay, but Ward won't have Aaron Rodgers on the depth chart ahead of him and as established a coach as Matt LeFleur. Situations matter as much for quarterbacks as any position.
Ward will be in a low-pressure situation but on a team lacking talent and an established identity. The talent is there, but is everything else?
2. Shemar Stewart, EDGE, Texas A&M
Boom/bust rate: 35%/65/%
Shemar Stewart is a historically good athlete, joining Myles Garrett and Mario Williams as the only edge rushers in more than 25 years to run a sub-4.7 40-yard dash, leap at least 40 inches, and have a broad jump of at least 117 inches. Add in a terrific Senior Bowl showing, and Stewart could justify being taken in the top five of any class.
The concern for Stewart isn't his athleticism. With only 4.5 career sacks and relatively mediocre pressure stats during his three-year stint in college, Stewart hasn't maximized his movement ability on the field. His pressure numbers were good, but his missed tackle rate of 23.5 percent in 2024 is quite bad.
His next coaching staff will need to build Stewart's plan of attack, hand placement, and anticipation skills. You want to bank on his raw talent and upside because of the payoff, but Stewart has quite a way to go to boom.
1. Jalen Milroe, QB, Alabama
Boom/bust rate: 15%/85%
The hit rate on any quarterback is low, and it really plummets as quarterbacks are taken outside of the top 10 picks. Teams selecting a quarterback outside of the top few picks tend to find themselves in a better position to take a stronger prospect shortly after drafting someone outside of the top 10. The biggest exceptions to this are when flier picks on Days 2 and 3 work out.
Jalen Milroe will have an uphill climb to become the next Day 2 success story. The uber-athlete from Alabama has a strong arm and is a devastating runner, but his accuracy and decision-making are both shaky and untrustworthy. He'll need time and reps in the right scheme to be more than a physical marvel who only hunts big plays.
With that in mind, only Ward in this class can match Milroe's high-end physical abilities. The potential payoff is that he will follow in the footsteps of former Alabama star Jalen Hurts or a better version of Tyrod Taylor. It's worth drafting and stashing Milroe when those are possibilities.
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