Betting
4/13/23
18 min read
Betting 2023 NFL Win Totals: How NFL Draft Could Affect Wagers
My knowledge of league-wide talent is one of the foundations of my betting process. With that in mind, I took our most recent mock draft to show how the 2023 NFL Draft might impact some of my win total stances. We're going to examine each team's haul from mock draft 5.0 and analyze how those picks would affect betting on the team's win total. The win totals used in this article come from DraftKings sportsbook.
If any of my win total stances change between now and the draft, I’ll discuss those shifts in our discord. If you're interested in betting on the NFL Draft or just want to talk fantasy football, join our FREE Discord with this link.
>> READ: The 33rd Team's Mock Draft 5.0
Note: The Broncos, 49ers and Browns do not have picks in the first two rounds, so they are not involved in this mock.
Bets to Make, Based on Mock Picks
Carolina Panthers: 7.5 Wins
Selections
No. 1: Bryce Young, QB, Alabama
No. 39: Jalin Hyatt, WR, Tennessee
Bryce Young (scouting report) and Jalin Hyatt (scouting report) would be a strong start for the next era of Carolina Panthers football. In the short term, Hyatt likely gets eased into the system behind DJ Chark. Young could start on opening day, or Carolina could start with Andy Dalton early in the season.
Ultimately, we already know the Panthers are taking a rookie quarterback. These picks would have no impact on my Panthers’ win total stance. It's still wise to pass on Carolina.
Houston Texans: 5.5 Wins
Selections
No. 2: C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State
No. 12: WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State
No. 33: B.J. Ojulari, Edge, LSU
Josh Larky and I already bet the Houston Texans over 5.5 when DraftKings first released win totals two weeks ago. It's hard to complain about adding teammates like C.J. Stroud (scouting report) and Jaxon Smith-Njigba (scouting report) along with a pass rusher like BJ Ojulari (scouting report).
I wouldn’t double down on Houston if this is how their draft starts, but this would be a good haul.
Indianapolis Colts: 6.5 Wins
Selections
No. 3 (via trade with Cardinals): Will Levis, QB, Kentucky
Will Levis (scouting report) is currently my second-highest exposure quarterback through roughly 75 best ball drafts, meaning he's a good pick at his current late cost. The Indianapolis Colts would be a reasonably good landing spot because he could play early in Indianapolis.
The over on the Colts is -140 on DraftKings. Since the over is getting juiced, we'll wait and see to get the Colts under seven or better. Levis landing in Indianapolis wouldn’t impact that stance in either direction.
Arizona Cardinals: 5.5 Wins
Selections
No. 4 (via trade with Colts): Broderick Jones, OT, Georgia
No. 34: Cam Smith, CB, South Carolina
Pick 35 (via Colts): Felix Anudike-Uzomah, Edge, Kansas State
Unless Kyler Murray returns from injury sooner than expected, the 2023 campaign will be a lost season of sorts for the Arizona Cardinals. The rebuilding Cardinals would hit each of their three biggest needs with this early draft haul. This would be a strong, foundation-building start to their draft, but it would have no impact on my Cardinals’ win total stance.
Arizona is still an under or pass. My final decision to bet will come when the NFL's schedule order is released in mid-May.
Seattle Seahawks: 8.5 Wins
Selections
No. 5: Jalen Carter, DT, Georgia
No. 20: Joey Porter Jr., CB, Penn State
No. 37: Josh Downs, WR, North Carolina
No. 52: Keion White, Edge, Georgia Tech
Josh Larky and I have multiple futures bets on the Seattle Seahawks, starting with a 70-1 Super Bowl ticket from mid-February. From that perspective, getting Jalen Carter (scouting report) or Will Anderson (scouting report) with the fifth pick, a player like Joey Porter Jr. (scouting report) at 20, and Josh Downs (scouting report) at pick 37 would be great.
More importantly, Seattle isn’t taking a quarterback in this mock, which is close to the only reason not to bet the over on Seattle’s win total. If the Seahawks take a rookie quarterback, that creates an additional path to volatility, and it will prohibit them from acquiring a high-end pass-rushing talent.
If the Seahawks get a premium disruptor like Carter or Anderson with the fifth pick, it's worth checking in on an over bet as soon as the pick is announced.
Detroit Lions: 9.5 Wins
Selections
No. 6: Will Anderson, Edge, Alabama
No. 18: Deonte Banks, CB, Maryland
No. 48: Noah Sewell, LB, Oregon
No. 55: Garrett Williams, CB, Syracuse
Pairing Anderson with last year’s second-overall pick Aidan Hutchinson would be a dream come true for Detroit Lions fans and bettors. In a two-year period, Detroit would go from one of the weakest edge duos in the league to one of the best if they land Anderson.
More importantly, for win-total purposes, the Lions won’t have taken a top-of-the-draft quarterback. In this scenario, the Lions' top-10 offense returns with Jared Goff at the controls, while their defense adds significant talent at multiple positions. I’m not going to bet the Lions over 9.5 wins because it’s been juiced to -150, but it's worth treating as an over or pass option.
Las Vegas Raiders: 7.5 Wins
Selections
No. 7: Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon
No. 38: Carter Warren, OT, Pittsburgh
The Las Vegas Raiders under is -150 on DraftKings, which is why it's not worth betting right now. If you can find this number closer to even money over the coming months, you should consider taking the Raiders under or passing.
Getting Christian Gonzalez (scouting report) and Carter Warren (scouting report) would be a good start for Vegas, as it upgrades two areas of need. Though, it wouldn’t change our win-total stance.
Atlanta Falcons: 7.5 Wins
Selections
No. 8: Tyree Wilson, Edge, Texas Tech
No 44: Jonathan Mingo, WR, Mississippi
The Atlanta Falcons appear to believe in second-year quarterback Desmond Ridder enough to not talk to Lamar Jackson and to pass on Anthony Richardson (scouting report) in this scenario.
In the short term, this early draft class makes the already improved Falcons even better in a weak division. They’ve already bolstered the secondary this offseason, and the addition of Tyree Wilson (scouting report) could give them an improved pass rush.
Ridder being the starter will keep us from betting on Atalata's win total at this point. Instead, we'll bet on Arthur Smith in the Coach of the Year race at +2500 odds on DraftKings. If Ridder plays well, Atlanta has a strong chance to win its division. If that happens, Smith will be right in the Coach of the Year mix down the stretch.
Chicago Bears: 7.5 Wins
Selections
No. 9: Paris Johnson, OT, Ohio State
No. 53: Calijah Kancey, DT, Pittsburgh
No. 61: Zach Harrison, Edge, Ohio State
I bet on Matt Eberflus to win the Coach of the Year award at +1800 in mid-March. Like the Falcons, it makes more sense to bet on the upside of this improved Chicago Bears team in that way than by messing with their win total. Chicago’s win total is an over or pass.
Philadelphia Eagles: 10.5 Wins
Selections
No. 10: Peter Skoronski, OG, Northwestern
No. 30: Nolan Smith, Edge, Georgia
No. 62: Bryan Bresee, DT, Clemson
After successfully betting on the Philadelphia Eagles' win total around this time last season, I have no interest in over 10.5 wins at -150 juice, with even less interest in getting involved with an under bet.
This mock draft class would be typical for the Eagles, where they reinforce their elite offensive line with a premium prospect while absolutely stealing a talented edge rusher like Nolan Smith (scouting report) in the late first. While this would be a great start to the draft for Philadelphia, it would have no impact on my win totals stance since the expectation is the Eagles will make smart decisions.
Tennessee Titans: Over 7.5 Wins
Selections
No. 11: Hendon Hooker, QB, Tennessee
No. 41: Cody Mauch, OT, North Dakota State
The Tennessee Titans probably need a new future at quarterback, and they definitely need offensive line upgrades. Hendon Hooker (scouting report) could be the new future they need. This could be a good foundational draft class for next season, but ultimately, the Titans are still an under or pass in 2023.
Minnesota Vikings: 8.5 Wins
Selection
No. 13 (via trade with Jets): Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida
The Minnesota Vikings have a curiously low win total after winning 13 games last season. If they moved up for Richardson, betting the under still wouldn't be the right action, but it would change my current lean from an over to an under. In this scenario, Minnesota is effectively announcing it is rebuilding.
Los Angeles Chargers: 9.5 Wins
Selections
No. 14 (via trade with Patriots): Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas
No. 54: Tyler Scott, WR, Cincinnati
This is interesting because a trade-up for a running back probably isn’t in the best interest of the franchise long-term. However, it would solve the Austin Ekeler situation right away while giving Justin Herbert a premium rookie running back behind a solid Los Angeles Chargers offensive line. Tyler Scott (scouting report) had a disappointing combine, but the Chargers need field-stretching speed, and Scott could conceivably provide that.
We'll still be avoiding the Chargers' win total completely, and this early-round draft class wouldn’t change that stance in either direction.
Green Bay Packers: 7.5 Wins
Selections
No. 15: Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois
No. 43 (via trade with Jets): Zay Flowers, WR, Boston College
No. 45: Sam LaPorta, TE, Iowa
This is a good trio of prospects since Zay Flowers (scouting report) and Sam LaPorta (scouting report) could walk right in and see significant playing time. Witherspoon would give the Green Bay Packers three first-round cornerbacks.
The most likely path to a Packers over this season is their uber-talented defense plays to their potential as a top-five type of unit. If Jordan Love does enough to keep Green Bay’s offense in the middle of the pack, the Packers could find themselves in the wild-card race. Right now we're avoiding Green Bay’s win total, but it's on my radar as a contrarian over. This early draft class would be a positive for that stance.
Washington Commanders: 7.5 Wins
Selections
No. 16: Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame
No. 47: Trent Simpson, LB, Clemson
These are two good players, but Washington Commanders’ fans shouldn't be overly thrilled with a tight end and linebacker in the first two rounds, given the Commanders' roster. Washingtons’ under is juiced to -150, so we're not betting it. This early-round draft class doesn’t change my stance on the Commanders at all.
Pittsburgh Steelers: 8.5 Wins
Selections
No. 17: Dawand Jones, OT, Ohio State
No. 49: Olusegun Oluwatimi, IOL, Michgian
The Pittsburgh Steelers need to rebuild their offensive line. Adding Dawand Jones (scouting report) and Olusegun Oluwatimi (scouting report) to former Eagles guard Isaac Seumalo could turn the Steelers from a bottom-five offensive line into a rock-solid group in one offseason.
Mike Tomlin’s team refused to have a losing record last season. I have no interest in getting involved in a Steelers under, while this early draft class would increase my Pittsburgh enthusiasm heading into next season.
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 6.5 Wins
Selections
No. 19: Anton Harrison, OT, Oklahoma
No. 50: Luke Musgrave, TE, Oregon State
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are in a transition phase where either betting the under or passing makes the most sense. Long-term, the Buccaneers would benefit greatly from bringing in a new offensive tackle to pair with Tristan Wirfs. This draft addresses that with the addition of Anton Harrison (scouting report).
For this season, there's not much the Buccaneers could do in the draft that would suddenly make me bullish on them.
New England Patriots: 7.5 Wins
Selections
No. 21 (via trade with Chargers): Darnell Wright, OT, Tennessee
No. 46: Cedric Tillman, WR, Tennessee
Also received RB Austin Ekeler via trade with the Chargers
Ekeler would become a fascinating check-down option for Mac Jones. Turbo James White, if you will. That said, Ekeler and Rhamondre Stevenson would both see their fantasy values nosedive in this scenario. From a football standpoint the New England Patriots have a mediocre roster that has to face a division and conference loaded with premium talent. This draft day haul doesn’t significantly alter that reality for the Patriots.
I’m not betting the Patriots win total, but it’s an under or pass as things stand now.
Baltimore Ravens: 8.5 Wins
Selection
No. 22: Emmanuel Forbes, CB, Mississippi State
Betting the Baltimore Ravens win total boils down to whether or not Jackson opens the season as Baltimore’s starting quarterback. If he does, 8.5 wins is beatable. If he doesn’t, there’s a good chance this number moves to the 6.5 or less range.
A cornerback taken with the 22nd overall pick isn’t going to significantly change Baltimore’s short-term future.
New York Jets: 9.5 Wins
Selections
No. 23 (via trade with Vikings): Joe Tippmann, IOL, Wisconsin
No. 42: Byron Young, Edge, Tennessee
Also received QB Aaron Rodgers via trade with the Packers
If you include the acquisition of Aaron Rodgers as part of the New York Jets draft-day booty, which you should, then their haul makes them a title contender.
Regardless, acquiring a premium center prospect in Joe Tippmann (scouting report) would be good for New York in both the short and long term. The Jets adding edge depth to their already formidable front with a player like Byron Young (scouting report) also makes sense.
Larky and I already got our Jets’ futures action a couple of months ago, but the Jets are an over or pass for me with Rodgers on their roster.
Jacksonville Jaguars: 10.5 Wins
Selections
No. 24: Brian Branch, SAF, Alabama
No. 56: Tucker Kraft, TE, South Dakota State
The Jacksonville Jaguars have an inconsistent but young and fast defense with a clear path to taking a step forward. Adding a player like Brian Branch (scouting report) to the mix could pay immediate dividends. It's a good idea to take a developmental tight end like Tucker Kraft (scouting report) to sit behind franchise-tagged Evan Engram for a year.
This haul doesn’t move the needle win total-wise, where I’m passing even though I lean over. But it’s one of my favorites in this mock given the Jaguars' limited options with their draft capital.
New York Giants: 8.5 Wins
Selections
No. 25: Quentin Johnson, WR, TCU
No. 57: Jammie Robinson, SAF, Florida State
The New York Giants hit two positions of need while giving Daniel Jones a rookie pass catcher that could develop into his most dangerous weapon in Quentin Johnston (scouting report).
That said, this haul would have no real impact on my win-total outlook on the Giants, which is an under or pass.
Dallas Cowboys: 9.5 Wins
Selections
No. 26: Darnell Washington, TE, Georgia
No. 58: Drew Sanders, LB, Arkansas
Josh Larky and I both took the over on the Dallas Cowboys' 9.5-win total when these lines were first released on DraftKings. This duo of extremely talented players doesn’t significantly increase that enthusiasm, but Darnell Washington (scouting report) would be a fascinating fit in this offense. He could make an impact in both phases early in this career.
Drew Sanders (scouting report) is one of my favorite players in this draft class. If he ended up in Dallas, I’d be beyond interested to see how Dan Quinn would deploy him.
Buffalo Bills: 10.5 Wins
Selections
No. 27: Jordan Addison, WR, USC
No. 59: DeMarvion Overshown, LB, Texas
Here's a secret: the Buffalo Bills' roster continues to erode while most of their primary competitors in the AFC are adding difference-makers. Buffalo’s championship window is getting very narrow.
The addition of Jordan Addison (scouting report) gives Josh Allen a potential difference-maker to pair with soon-to-be 30-year-old wide receiver Stefon Diggs. Buffalo lost linebacker Tremaine Edmunds in free agency, creating a significant void at linebacker for the Bills.
I’m contrarian on Buffalo and have not yet bet the Bills' under, but it’s on my radar. This draft haul would do little to change that stance.
Cincinnati Bengals: 11.5 Wins
Selections
No. 28: Dalton Kincaid, TE, Utah
No. 60: Sydney Brown, SAF, Illinois
The addition of Dalton Kincaid (scouting report) would give Joe Burrow yet another difference-making weapon. It’s primarily on last year’s first-round pick Daxton Hill to fill the shoes of Falcons-bound elite safety Jessie Bates. Brown would more likely push former Ram Nick Scott for the other starting safety role in Cincinnati.
The Cincinnati Bengals lost in the AFC Championship last year, so they have limited draft capital. This group doesn’t move the win total needle.
New Orleans Saints: 9.5 Wins
Selections
No. 29: Myles Murphy, Edge, Clemson
No. 40: Keeanu Benton, DT, Wisconsin
The New Orleans Saints use their first two picks to replenish their losses along the defensive line in this scenario. Both of these selections make sense, but we’ve already bet the Saints under, and this haul doesn’t change my enthusiasm on that wager, which is already more expensive than when we got it.
Kansas City Chiefs: 11.5 Wins
Selections
No. 31: Will McDonald, Edge, Iowa State
No. 63: Wanya Morris, OT, Oklahoma
The Kansas City Chiefs lost edge Frank Clark along with offensive tackles Orlando Brown Jr. and Andrew Wylie this offseason. The signing of former Jaguars’ offensive tackle Jawaan Taylor paired with these two selections would collectively fill those gaps while serving as likely downgrades in each spot.
The Chiefs have been a model of consistency for years in the Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes era. This early-round draft class doesn’t change my stance on their win total, which is an over or pass.
Los Angeles Rams: 7.5 Wins
Selection
No. 36: Kelee Ringo, CB, Georgia
I’ve always been a Matthew Stafford guy, but the Los Angeles Rams will enter the season with a below-average secondary, a below-average offensive line and a pass rush among the worst in the league despite having Aaron Donald. The Rams are an under or pass regardless of who they take in the second round.
Miami Dolphins: 9.5 Wins
Selection
No. 51: Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Alabama
This would be a great landing spot for Jahmyr Gibbs (scouting report). He’d add another dynamic playmaker in the passing game to the most dangerous wide receiver duo in the league in Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Given Miami’s draft capital situation, getting Gibbs might be its best chance of getting a major difference-maker for this season.
The Dolphins are already an over or pass for me, drafting Gibbs would increase that stance a little.
