Analysis
10/24/22
6 min read
Bears vs. Patriots DFS Monday Night Showdown
The Patriots have played extremely well the last two weekends with Bailey Zappe at quarterback, and the primary catalyst has been their defense. Their defense has forced two turnovers in every game since Week 2 and six turnovers in their past two games. This matchup couldn’t get much better for the Patriots, as the Bears have turned it over 10 times so far this year.
The Bears have not produced more than 200 yards passing in a single game this season and have not attempted 30 passes in any game. They have run for more than 140 yards in four games this season.
Vegas Line: Patriots -7.5
Over Under: 39.5
Notable Injuries:
Bears: Nobody
Patriots: Questionable: QB Mac Jones, WR Nelson Agholor, WR Kendrick Bourne, OG Michael Onwenu, OT Isaiah Wynn, DT Lawrence Guy, DT Christian Barmore, DT Anfernee Jennings, LB Josh Uche, CB Jonathan Jones, CB Shaun Wade, CB Jalen Mills
Data to Know Provided by TruMedia
Bears Offense vs. Patriots Defense
- Justin Fields averages 7.6 yards per attempt,9.6 air yards per attempt and a 3.5% pass touchdown rate.
- These numbers are inflated because he has yet to attempt more than 27 passes in a game.
- Fields will see a ton of man coverage and blitzes from the Patriots.
- Against man coverage, Fields averages 5.4 yards per attempt, 10.2 air yards per attempt and a 23.5% sack rate.
- The Patriots have played man coverage at the highest rate in the NFL, which should continue in this matchup.
- Against the blitz, Fields averages 5.8 yards per attempt and 11.4 air yards per attempt with a 21.2% sack rate.
- The Patriots have blitzed at a 28.5% rate overall, but against Baltimore's Lamar Jackson, they blitzed on 38% of dropbacks.
- Bears WR Darnell Mooney holds a 30% target share in man coverage this season.
- Chicago WR N’Keal Harry is back, so it could create even more chaos for the Bears' secondary receivers.
- Their pass-catching room has been a rotation this season, but Dante Pettis looks to be in the WR2 role.
- Pettis has run more than 60% of the routes in each of the last three weeks.
- Equanimeous St.Brown and Velus Jones Jr. are the other wide receivers of note.
- The Patriots' weakest point has been against wide receivers out wide, and that is where Pettis primarily lines up.
- Bears TE Cole Kmet is the only tight end worth noting, but for as much as he runs routes, he isn’t targeted.
- The running back room features David Montgomery and Khalil Herbert in a change-of-pace role.
- Fields will steal goal-line carries from both of these running backs.
- Montgomery does not have a goal-line carry this season.
- The Patriots are giving up 4.7 yards per carry overall, but with no threat on the outside, I expect them to be better versus the Bears.
Patriots Offense vs. Bears Defense
- Jones is still on the injury report, so I will list the stats for both QBs even though he's expected to start.
- Jones has averaged 8.1 yards per attempt, 10.2 air yards per attempt and a 2.1% touchdown pass rate.
- Zappe has averaged 8.5 yards per attempt, 6.3 air yards per attempt and a 5.7% touchdown pass rate.
- The Bears have played a mixture of man and zone coverage this season.
- Overall they are giving up 6.9 yards per attempt, 6.4 air yards per attempt and a 2.4% touchdown pass rate.
- The Bears have struggled with slot wide receivers and pass-catching running backs.
- Patriots WR Jakobi Meyers is the full-time slot wide receiver for the Patriots.
- RB Rhamondre Stevenson is the pass-catching back for the Patriots.
- Rookie WR Tyquan Thornton will have a role in this offense with his speed, and DeVante Parker has been a full-time wide receiver in every game he has played.
- WR Kendrick Bourne is no longer a part of this Patriots offense.
- The only player that could potentially limit Thornton will be Agholor, so his injury news is worth monitoring
- The Bears are giving up 4.7 yards per carry to running backs this season.
- Patriots RB Damien Harris is expected to return this week after logging a full practice late in the week.
- He will come back and take away a full-time workload from Stevenson, but hamstrings are a tricky injury to come back from.
Overall Thoughts
The Bears' offense is a tough one to watch, and the Patriots have historically taken away what other teams do best. The problem with that philosophy in this matchup is that the running game is all about effort, which you can limit but not completely negate. The Bears will run the ball in negative game scripts, making the passing game options tough to get to. Mooney is the only threat in this receiving game, and his production is reliant on Fields connecting on the long ball. The Patriots' defense has been excellent in recent weeks, and this isn’t a matchup I expect to see that change.
I expect Jones to suit up and be the starting quarterback for the Patriots tonight. This is a showdown slate where you will have to get every touchdown into your lineup since there will not be many. The Patriots running backs are both appealing as there will still be limitations for Jones’ ankle. New England's game plan should include a lot of quick passes to protect Jones' ankle. Stevenson, Thornton, TE Hunter Henry, TE Jonnu Smith and Meyers are my favorite players to pair with Jones in the passing game. Nee England will want to rely on its players to make plays after the catch, which bodes well for Stevenson, Thornton and Smith. The Patroits will also want their players to find soft spots quickly, which bodes well for Henry and Meyers.
Multiplier Pool
- Rhamondre Stevenson
- Mac Jones / Bailey Zappe
- Damien Harris
- Jakobi Meyers
- Darnell Mooney
- Tyquan Thornton
- Patriots D/ST
FLEX Pool
- David Montgomery
- Justin Fields
- Khalil Herbert
- Dante Pettis
- Hunter Henry
- Nick Folk
- Cairo Santos
- Bears D/ST
- Jonnu Smith
WATCH MORE: Zappe or Jones for New England?
